The winning formula: Morocco as a Sahel country...
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Since Morocco’s 2007 proposal of autonomy for Western Sahara within the framework of Morocco’s territorial integrity, the Polisario Front has suffered significant setbacks both diplomatically and internally within its camps on Algerian territory. In recent weeks, the situation in the Tindouf camps has sharply deteriorated, exposing growing disorder and an increasing loss of control over the populations.
The detainees are increasingly confronting the Algerian security forces surrounding the camps, whose mission is to limit movement for fear of a mass return to Morocco. Haven’t we seen videos where female protesters shout in metallic voices, “Let us return to Morocco”? Such demonstrations are not unprecedented in the camps, but this time, “Long live the King” is clearly and loudly chanted. The population is disillusioned and no longer afraid to confront Brahim Ghali and his associates.
In this atmosphere on the brink of anarchy, violence and armed clashes in the camps are multiplying, with real power increasingly in the hands of rival gangs involved in drug and fuel trafficking, illegal gold mining, and the diversion of received aid.
Just last weekend, heavy gunfire erupted in the so-called Laâyoune camp (not to be confused with the beautiful city of Laâyoune in Morocco) between rival factions. Powerless, the Polisario did not intervene.
At the same time, three Polisario fighters deserted and joined the Moroccan Royal Armed Forces near Oum Dreyga; a defection that foreshadows others. The Polisario is increasingly unable to impose its authority and is also discredited from within its own structures.
The internal crisis within the Polisario raises palpable concern in Algiers, which more than ever fears latent chaos in the camps, a genuine threat to public order and regional stability. Once an instrument of Algerian influence, the movement, which has always been a security burden, is now becoming a political liability. Several scenarios are even being discussed, ranging from disarmament to the dissolution of armed militias, but this will not be possible without major internal tensions in Algeria-a probable generals’ war.
The accelerated instability is worsened by increased repression, notably by the Algerian army, which has opened fire on civilians in the camps during protests, causing deaths and injuries. This climate of violence and oppression fuels the anger of the detained populations, who watch in disbelief the inaction of those supposed to protect them. They openly denounce the Polisario’s complicit passivity in the face of these aggressions. They now understand that these so-called leaders are in fact powerless puppets.
Combined with extremely difficult living conditions, including restricted access to water, education, and medical care, the situation is increasingly unbearable for those held under the yoke of criminals and traffickers of all kinds.
In Morocco, particularly in the southern provinces, this dramatic situation is causing growing concern. On social networks and in the press, countless voices vehemently denounce the situation. They alert to the grave suffering of women and children in the camps. Numerous NGOs and international observers are calling for urgent intervention to restore security and protect civilians.
The major security crisis and sustained, almost daily popular protests in the Tindouf camps occur at a difficult time for the host country. It is struggling with the reaction to its provocations from Sahel countries-a coordinated and forceful response that seems to have caught it off guard. The Algerian regime no longer knows where to turn amid internal problems supplying basic goods to the population and the unrest they provoke; the crisis in Tindouf; the exponential weakening of the Polisario; and its obvious isolation in the region. The Sahel countries have unanimously made their choice: they are strengthening their all-around rapprochement with Morocco.
The Malian drone shot down in early April 2025 by the Algerian army will cost Algeria dearly in terms of geopolitical positioning. It shows how a “premeditated hostile action” without reflection can lead to serious consequences, even a lasting crisis. Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso collectively recalled their diplomats, triggering an unprecedented diplomatic escalation with Algeria, which responded by closing its airspace to flights and recalling its ambassadors.
The escalation with Algiers, which seems to be settling in for the long term, has opened these countries’ eyes. They already had on the table the proposal to anchor themselves in a structuring Moroccan project, enabling their access to the Atlantic.
On April 28, 2025, His Majesty King Mohammed VI received in Rabat the foreign ministers of the three countries simultaneously-a significant geostrategic turning point. The “Atlantic Africa” initiative was endorsed as a facilitation of ocean access, a solid foundation for the economic development and commercial integration of the countries involved. The economic dimension of the project is strong, and the political dimension powerful. Morocco is perceived as a serious, committed strategic partner, notably respectful of the principle of non-interference, which contrasts with the tensions and climate of hostility prevailing between Algeria and the new Sahelian regimes. The three countries reaffirmed their full adherence to the Moroccan vision; their respective top diplomats emphasized that this alliance is a lever for growth and stability in a region marked by security and diplomatic crises.
The recent developments fit into the regional context where Morocco consolidates its position amid the weakening of the Polisario and the internal crisis in the Tindouf camps, while Algeria sees its influence recede in the face of the rising power of its Sahelian neighbors who turn to Rabat for economic and security solutions. This regional realignment is an additional factor weakening Algeria’s position both in the Sahara dossier and in managing the Polisario.
The Algerian crisis with Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, combined with these countries’ strategic rapprochement with Morocco under the impetus of His Majesty King Mohammed VI, thus illustrates a major geopolitical shift in the Sahel. The new context strengthens Morocco’s territorial integrity dynamic while further isolating the Polisario and its sponsor: Algeria is very talented when it comes to improvising or manufacturing crises with its neighbors and beyond.
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The winning formula: Morocco as a Sahel country...
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