Trump, like a Roman emperor...
During his campaign, candidate Donald Trump was hosted by Joe ROGAN in his famous Podcast, which is now more powerful than al large part of the mainstream media combined. That's where Trump confided the most, and that's where you have to go to understand his projected policies, both internally and externally.
On this occasion, Trump said, in essence, “I'll be a dictator for a day, and the rest of the time, I'll be a Democrat”. By which he meant that, once installed in the 75.8 m2 office facing the White House Rose Garden, he would sign a lot of “Presidential Orders”. He's no stranger to this. He signed 53 in 10 months only during his first term.
Presidential Orders are the decrees that a U.S. President can issue without reference to Congress. Although the procedure is not enshrined in the Constitution, it has always been used. As far back as 1793, George Washington used it to impose neutrality of the country in the conflict between France and England. It was under Franklin in 1862 that the procedure seems to have become a permanent fixture. Franklin D. Roosevelt is the president who holds the record, signing 3,700 of them. This didn't bother Americans too much, who trusted their president to get them out of the crisis and keep the country out of bankruptcy. More recently, George W. Bush signed 291 Presidential Orders. Congress remains in control of the situation, however, when it comes to funding and therefore the budget. For Trump, this won't be a problem. His loyalists have a majority in both chambers and are unlikely to encounter any difficulties.
On January 20, he will show his devotion to the USA and put his commitments into practice, if only in part, by signing a multitude of documents of all kinds. Some of these will reach people's wallets the very next day. Like a true team captain, he will offer the people gathered around him ink pens from prestigious brand. Last time, there were as many pens as signed sheets.
Trump has made it clear that he intends to put an end to wars and does not intend to wage or allow new ones. He also said he wanted to cut certain government bills, including those for the army. He was well aware that the great empires had all collapsed when their military spending had exceeded all comprehension. For him, the country spends too much on war and on the army. Will he really weigh in against the might of the Pentagon and its hidden motives. He's going to sack it boss.
Buoyed by the swell in his favor in the recent elections, he intends to use this major advantage to rapidly influence the course of events. In his economic approach, his first priority will be to reduce the trade deficit. The Americans have a trade deficit with all the world's major economies: US$275 billion with China, US$152 billion with Mexico, US$72 billion with Japan and so on. A huge and rather unhealthy deficit. In alcohols and spirit beveradges alone, the deficit is 15 billion.
He also wants to regain control of oil and gas production, and will heavily promote the exploitation of bituminous shist. He couldn't care less about the Paris agreements.
He intends to reinvigorate certain industries, including the automobile industry, once the flagship of the American economy. To do this, he will need labor, which is increasingly scarce in the USA. While apparently opposed to immigration, he does have a solution. In short, he doesn't want any more stowaways, random intruders or those from the famous lottery. He advocates immigration based on skills and the country's needs.
The president is convinced that this is the way the make this famous 'America first' a reality.
Trump no longer wants to meddle in the affairs of other countries, but will nevertheless indirectly impact their economic policies through the introduction of rather high taxes on imports. And he's rather selective. His first target is China. He plans to apply chineese a rate of 60%. Mexico, on the other hand, will bear the brunt. A rate of 200% would be applied to the electric cars it exports to the USA. The Latin American neighbor has encouraged the establishment of Chinese companies manufacturing electric cars on its soil. These cars are then introduced into the USA under the NAFTA agreements signed in 1994 with Canada and Mexico. For the rest of the world, according to the customer, the rates would be from 10 to 20%.
Another provision is also likely to disrupt the course of events: the 100% customs tax he wants to impose on imports from countries that do not use the US dollar in their international transactions. The BRIX is directly targeted.
If Trump says he doesn't want a new war, now he's likely to declare a good one on a lot of countries at the same time. An all-out war. The very serious Centre d'Etudes Prospectives d'Informations Internationales -CEPII- estimates, for example, that these measures could lead to a fall in world GDP of around 0.5%. This is not insignificant given the rates achieved in almost all countries, barring exceptional cases. All countries exporting to the USA would so be affected.
On the face of it, these measures will make it possible to relocate certain productive sectors to the USA, but with which workers, while at the same time he intends to expel almost 13 million people whom he and his followers consider to be too many on American soil. However, deportation is no easy task, and is likely to be very costly for the state whose money he claims to be defending. The operation would cost the American taxpayer some US$315 billion. In fact, what he would save or take with one hand, he may lose it with the other.
It also remains to be seen how the American housewife will react. While the vast majority of them have punished the Democrats for inflation, all the measures mentioned above, and others still proposed, are likely to increase the cost of living. The average American who has become accustomed to paying USD15 for a shirt made in China is likely to have to pay more than USD20 for the same article...and that's not why he voted for Trump.
In any case, the two months that separate us from the nomination of the 47th President of the USA are not going to be easy for the whole world. Economists and politicians are hard at work, calculators in hand. Both of them. There's no doubt that some of them are already preparing their response to the planned measures. The USA is not what it was fifteen or twenty years ago. It has lost much of its superb economic hegemony, and Trump may well learn this the hard way, or not. He'll still sign a bunch of Presidential Orders with his own hand on January 20, 2025, savoring his great triumph like a Roman emperor...
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Trump, like a Roman emperor...
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What If?
The concept of work has always baffled me. That every day of a person's life, they get up and go somewhere to do something; sometimes different, sometimes repetitive.
The understanding that it is ultimately towards a goal of either changing society, impacting lives and satisfying personal desires, both financially and in all other respects sometimes makes it make sense.
So, what if every person belonging to some nation shared a common goal to make their country better and impact the lives of the people within that country while satisfying their personal desires that are tied to that nation. Would this be our common work? What if all Africans wherever they are in the world shared in the goal of making the continent better than it has ever been?
An African living and working in the United Kingdom complained one day about how things are so bad in their home country. Then they were asked by a local that if things are so bad then why are they working in the UK instead and not in their home country. It was a casual question with no connotations of condescension, race or disgust, but a clear incomprehension of the reasoning that drove the decision to leave one's country to build another's.
I have heard folks from many countries complain about their own countries. Africans complain, Europeans complain, Americans complain. The only people I have not heard complain are Asians by the way. This means that leaders are generally bad. So, what if we disregarded them anyway?
The whole idea here is that each person has a lifetime. It lasts for a few years that even pass quickly before we could even catch it. Wherever you work within that time, wherever you put all of your energy, you build that place. You impact the lives of the people within that place, and you satisfy your personal desires tied to that place. If you complain about Africa while none of your life's work is in Africa, know that you are not getting satisfaction for all of your personal desires.
What if you did some work in your home country today heh?
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What If?
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Congratulations Mr Donald Trump, 47th President of the United States of America
Trump is now the 47th President of the USA, after having been the 45th. It's a new and interesting development. During his first term, he broke with what the world had become accustomed to from the USA. He even went so far as to make contact with Kim Jong-Un, supreme leader of Pyongyang and of more than 26 million North Koreans. His relationship with Putin was marked by respect, and China was able to trade with him without ideological difficulties.
His philosophy is basic: USA first. Anything that serves his country's interests is welcome. In his mind, there are no allies, only economic rivals, not even the Europeans. NATO is a heavy burden for him, and defending anyone is none of his business. He'll say to the Europeans, you want NATO to defend you, pay up.
European leaders, intervening in scattered order, came begging for his blessing and protection, to no avail. All they got was disdain, if not humiliation. Merkel and Macron know all about it.
World leaders, Europeans and others stayed up late on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, and watched helplessly as the USA's most atypical president was re-elected. The man who turned all North American electoral habits on their head. Many of them had a headache, a very bad one indeed. Most of them had secretly hoped for Kamala's election in the hope of a political and strategic continuum, that of the Democrats, embodied by Biden. They will be jostling to offer their congratulations: Congratulations Mr. President.
Trump knocked out Kamala and his $2.8 billion campaign fund, while he, despite Elon Musk's boundless support, didn't raise more than $1.8 billion. Kamala's forced and cartoonish smile wasn't enough. Having never lost an election in her life, she didn't even have the courage to address her supporters on the election night.
Kamala couldn't shake off Biden's tainted image. It has stuck to her. The economic success of his mandate wasn't enough; neither was the $1,000 billion invested in infrastructure. American housewives, young executives and blue-collar workers alike held him responsible for the decline in their purchasing power, and let Kamala know it at the ballot box.
It's not totally untrue.
The inflation that has raged around the world is largely due to the Russo-Ukrainian war, which the Biden administration has kept going with its generous arms and ammunition aid to the man who went straight from a TV series to a presidential mandate in a country that is, to say the least, bizarre since it broke away from the USSR. Wasn't there room for negotiation, particularly if we had revived the Minsk agreements, signed under the aegis of the Europeans, led by Germany and with the blessing of the Americans? That's all Putin wanted.
The tensions stirred up with China also helped in this inflationary crisis that impacted the whole world, with catastrophic consequences for small economies and the 8 billion people on earth. Kamala paid for this, but also for the fact that her words were confusing and that, instead of presenting a plan for the future of Americans, she merely dug her own grave, getting bogged down in the rhetoric that Trump deftly lured her into. Her advisors and communicators failed to grasp the trick.
On January 6, just after the pleasure of celebrating Christmas and New Year's Eve; victorious, Trump will deliver his sermon.
Between now and then, he'll be fine-tuning his plans and putting together a team of loyal followers. He doesn't want to relive the first term and its defections from his team. And he'll be a strong 47th President of the USA, unopposed in the US Congress, his party having won a majority in both houses. The Supreme Court will also be his. He'll have the upper hand.
There's more in the world than only Europe and China, or India and Russia, there's also Africa. In his previous term of office, he didn't even look at it. Biden, on the other hand, paid attention to what was happening on the black continent, and to the growing intrusion of Russia, India, Turkey and, above all, China. He saw this as a threat to American interests and began to act to counter it. He accused his rivals of exploiting African resources without fair compensation. He called for greater justice in a partnership that respected the dignity of Africans. Biden will even organize a U.S.-Africa summit and shake hands with African leaders as no U.S. president before him has done. Not even Kenya's Obama. Joe made Kenya a strategic partner and received the Kenyan president on a state visit, a privilege no African leader had enjoyed for over forty years. He spoke of integrating Africa into the global market, facilitating the mobilization of capital to finance major projects. 55 billion will be mobilized for this purpose. Among other projects, the Lobito Corridor railroad line will be financed, integrating Angola with its Benguela line and linking it with Zambia and the DRC.
Africans and Europeans alike have legitimate questions about the place Donald Trump will reserve for them in his foreign policy, especially his economic policy. Many were undoubtedly hoping to take advantage of Kamala's skin color and her origins... But that's not knowing the mentality of Americans of all origins.
The ones who should be worried are the Palestinians. Trump is all about Israel. After all, he's the president who moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. No president before him had the courage to do so. Netanyahu must have followed the American elections closely and slept very well that night. Despite his unconditional support, Trump will seek to restore peace in the Middle East. Does he seek to impose a lasting solution: probably. He would like history to remember that. But at what cost to the Palestinians? The consequences of October 7 are likely to harm them in more ways than one. In Trump's mind, they'll make up for it.
In any case, the day after the election, the price of oil fell drastically and the dollar recovered.
For Moroccans, Trump is adored. This is the American president who solemnly recognized the legitimacy of the Cherifian Kingdom's sovereignty over its southern provinces, and who will no doubt speed things up even further.
As for our friend Zelenski, there's a good chance that the play will be over for him this time.
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Congratulations Mr Donald Trump, 47th President of the United States of America
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Despite this, the United States will continue to make us dream...
The world holds its breath. We are only’ a few hours from the American presidential elections. Those that will impact our lives for at least four years.
No matter who the white house tenant is, he or she will be the greatest influencer in the world. Every day at the office will be made decisions that will impact the lives of all. The office that George Washington had wanted elliptical seems to be like this for a view of everyone, without any obstructive angle. The United States has thus placed itself at the center of the world.
The white house is not just the oval office and the home of the president and his family. Other influencers, more or less known exercise their power there. They are advisers, secretaries of state, journalists or simple friends.
All kinds of journalists have offices there and spend their days scrutinizing information, weighing on decisions and provoking them, especially when they face the President in person. He too obeys the dictate of the press and fears its omnipotence.
Power in the US is not just the White House. Not far from there throne the Congress with a gerontocracy to give you cold sweats. Some of the Congressmen may go so far as to lose their Latin but hold much to the power conferred on them by the oldest constitution in the world. They appear to be the reincarnation of those who imagined and drafted the constitution. There was a Jewish Moroccan among the authors, by the way. Some’s have no knowledge and skill in out of what gives the millions of dollars that allow them to sustain themselves. They have no idea of geography or history and even less of the cultures of other peoples. They are Americans and therefore the best and the smartest and arguably the most powerful. They can make decisions to shake the world. No matter, in the evening, they will doze without seeing or understanding what’s would their decisions have caused.
Old people are not alone. There are also young people, boys and girls who make their teeth. Many are from’ immigration but are against it. The US needs it for growth, but it doesn't matter. They are Mexican or Cuban of origin but do not want new Cubans or Mexicans.
All make laws on subjects that only a minority understands. They denounce tyranny in the world but do not measure the one that they exercise on this same world. They defend human rights but do not realize that their army and companies may flout them every second. They are the best and the others are may be just ignorant barbarians.
On January 6, 2021, Africa lost the primacy of contested elections. The outgoing president challenges the results a bit like those African opponents whose statements after counting votes can easily be imagined. A real coup d’etat. The United States will lose its brilliance in front of the world. The Capitol, the house of the people is stormed. Enlightened people rise to the rank of mentors and saviors of the democracy.
Some Americans think that democracy is in danger and that it is up to them to defend it. Many find that their system is gangrenous and sick. Many have become aware that something must change but have no choice but to suffer. Albert Arnold Gore paid the price. Kind as he seemed, he had agreed to lose to the worst presidents the US would have, just to save the system. His features betrayed him.
Not far away you have the’ other center of power: The Supreme Court of the USA. The designers of the system thought that with this institution they would spare the USA any kind of abuse. They could not imagine the type of humans who would succeed them. Those who by “micmacs” will seek to divert this institution and impose friends to support their drifts. The Court will decide according to the winds and the will of the one who presided over the appointment of this or that judge.
On the eve of the elections these three symbols of the great American democracy are barricaded. Security has installed barriers and almost barricades. They are afraid of the illuminated man who to contest the results will come to immolate himself, of the fanatic who gun in hand may shoot some innocents, of the people convinced by the one or the other of the candidates to come to save democracy. The US is afraid of Americans.
Not far away, the Pentagon seems to be quietly scrutinizing what is happening. The deep state is peaceful. Not much moves here. It looks like no one want to disturb the rest of the tenants of Darlington. This’ is where the big decisions would be made in case of problems.
The tour would be incomplete without mentioning the tens of thousands of lobbies who scrutinize the situation, smiling. Regardless, they are only concerned with tilting decisions in favor of those who finance them. In caulked offices, feeding and feeding their prey in upscale restaurants, have them pounded in recommended bars. A power for which no one has voted. Around a meal or a glass one can seal the future of the people and why not of the entire humanity. Weapons, tobacco, medicines, chemicals are never far from the Capitol.
Never American campaign had resembled that of today. Both candidates fell to the lowest. Insults are common. Infamous rhetoric and unbearable slanderous remarks resound on both sides.
Even universities no longer escape violent ideological confrontations. Radicality does not seem to bother anyone; on the contrary, it is well nourished by the words of the candidates and their henchmen.
Elon Musk and other stars are there to influence who with millions who with millions and forced smiles.
It’s really funny to see their forced and caricatural smile.
In any case, the show is both fun and alarming to the point of asking us the question of whether the’ system was not at an end.
No matter who is going to occupy the Oval Office, the United States will remain the United States and all will carefully watch over who will govern them and rule us by ricochet for at least four years.
I have a dream, Martin Luther King said. The pastor will eventually be killed.
Today, not far from the White House, the Capitol, the Congress, the Supreme Court and the Pentagon, dozens of people are creating the slab and their children, at an increasingly early age, are killing each other with war weapons. Washington is no longer the chocolate city. It’s one of the cities where the social gap is most pronounced. It’s the Fifth deadliest city in the United States.
Despite this, the United States will continue to make us dream...
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President Macron visit to Morocco:the shadow and the spirit of Moulay Ismail, those of his ambassador Benaicha were very present and those of Louis XIV too.
His Majesty King Mohammed VI of Morocco has given a historical character to President Macron's visit to the Kingdom. From the memory only the great monarchies and the oldest nation can reserve to a foreign head a so authentic welcome, as rich in symbols.
There was indeed the insistence of the President when he evokes the position of the state of France with regard to the provinces of the Moroccan South and of course the ten billion of Euros signed economic agreements but is there the essential?
In one of his words, President Macron has not failed to evoke the history. He even went back to the fascinating character of the ambassador Benaicha, the one that Sultan Moulay Ismail had dispatched to the Sun King. It could have gone back further because there were many exchanges prior to the period or years mentioned.
To remain in the same reigns in Paris and Morocco we can recall that Louis XIV had in 1689 sent to the Cherifian Sultan Moulay Ismail, Francois Pidou of Saint-Olon. At the time when a sovereign sent an emissary to another, one spoke of embassy. It is therefore in response to this embassy that the Sultan sent in turn an embassy in the person of Abdallah Benaicha who took the road to Paris in 1698, almost ten years later.
Travelling was long, tedious and risky at the time and exchanges very little political otherwise when it came to guaranteeing a little bit of security to allow and promote trade and much to free the captives of on one side as in the others. At the’ time the Cherifian Empire made a lot in the export leathers, salt, wheat in particular. Benaicha, who did not meet Louis XIV until February 16, 1699, had in fact come to negotiate the release of Muslim captives taken prisoner at sea by the ships of the Sun King. The unfortunates were used forcibly in careers. He wanted to negotiate a treaty to that effect.
Abdallah Benaicha was a high-ranking sailor. He can be compared to a sort of Admiral of the time. He did not speak French but rather English and Spanish. These were the languages that traders and knowledgeable people, especially those in navigation, spoke on the southern side of the Mediterranean as well. The maritime powers that were emerging were precisely Spanish and English.
Who else could negotiate such a treaty than Benaicha who himself had been captive in England in his youth and who had only been released at the cost of a large ransom. It was commonplace. People were generally captured at sea, their strength of arms and their knowledge were taken advantage of when they had it and their release was negotiated for large sums of money, later. The rulers of the time easily gave in to this kind of blackmail. Religion was never far from the problem. Christians captivated Muslims and Muslims did the same to Christians. The world was thus divided according to the confessions of the inhabitants of particular regions.
In Paris, Benaicha will be warmly welcomed with great respect, in order to show Versailles' consideration for Moulay Ismail and his power. Many visits to monuments were organized for him, obviously not at all for a cultural purpose but rather to show him the power of the country and the reign of its sovereign at the time. He had to be impressed in order to come back and tell his own Sultan about it. Louis XIV thus boasted of his power to intimidate the Cherifian Sultan. It was a way to impress and dissuade anyone who might doubt the power of the country. This was the way it was done at the time and perhaps still is today. These were the assets of foreign policy: to scare and show how advanced and powerful one was.
Benaicha, with his class, his refined manners, his very rich attire, his appearance and his culture, will be perceived as a rather interesting and attractive curiosity. It is even said that he seduced more than one lady of the nobility of the Court of Louis XIV. The women of the court did not hold back at the time and had their barely hidden habits as well...
During his very prolonged stay, with apparent reasons or not, Benaicha also met James Stuart, the dethroned King of England, who had taken refuge in France. He had apparently known him in his youth when he had been, as mentioned above, made a Muslim slave. England at the time was prey to real instability with a complicated religious substratum. Catholicism was facing very great difficulties. Normal that James Stuart himself a Catholic took refuge with a Catholic King. As a reminder, while he was having difficulty maintaining himself on the English throne, James Stuart is said to have received an offer of help from Moulay Ismail. But the military support had been accompanied by a complex and complicated condition. Moulay Ismail, is said to have simply asked James Stuart to convert to Islam and failing that to Protestantism.
Unlike President Macron's state visit to Morocco, which ended in apotheosis with grand conventions, gigantic contracts and promising and sincere smiles, Benaicha's mission ended with not much... Like all the expeditions of the time. However, should we not recognize that this embassy had left some seeds? It had the merit of making known to both of us what we truly were, each on our own side.
The milestones laid then and the seeds sown by Benaicha during his Parisian journey will certainly have served as the foundations for what has just been experienced during the visit of President Macron, who had the intelligence to mention it. This is precisely the moment that was seized on both sides to say loud and clear that only consideration and mutual respect could seal a great friendship and guarantee the interests of each other.
Four centuries of relations were evoked with intelligence, no doubt, to say that one cannot do without registering in the historical perspective to reflect and build the present and the future.
In any case, the shadow and the spirit of Moulay Ismail, those of his ambassador Benaicha were very present and those of Louis XIV too.
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President Macron visit to Morocco:the shadow and the spirit of Moulay Ismail, those of his ambassador Benaicha were very present and those of Louis XIV too.
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Historic turning point with the transfer of 2.5 million archive documents to Rabat, a source of concern for Algeria
President Macron's visit to Morocco has been repeatedly postponed for a variety of reasons. While many saw the visit as a stalemate in a serious and insoluble situation, time has shown otherwise. In view of recent developments, rather than speaking of successive deep crises, it would be better today to speak of a beneficial and productive halt, since it enabled us to set the record straight, clarify the situation on both sides, make clear the positions of each party on the issues that concern it, and dispel certain latent difficulties that in fact haunted both parties.
The hope now is to see the locomotive and wagons of complementarity on the rails, in a spirit of mutual respect and common interests, with the most absolute programmatic and the most profitable perspective for both parties.
In this context, one of the issues that has been outstanding between the two countries for decades is that of the archives concerning Morocco, in particular those from the protectorate period and slightly earlier. In other words, documents from the time when France began to take an interest in Morocco. For a long time, and right up to the 'post' recent crisis, France had always pretended not to hear Morocco's claims to the paternity of its archives, even though they concerned it directly.
In fact, France, in its balancing act, seeking to remain halfway between Algeria and Morocco, didn't think it productive to deliver such a treasure trove of information to the Kingdom, without it casting a shadow over its relations with its former departments; a rather relative equidistance, since the former colonial power has acted more to Algeria's advantage, for historically obvious and understandable reasons. However, France has never shown any consideration for this position, which is perceived as unfair by Rabat.
Clearly, these archives are of capital importance for Morocco, as they concern its history and, above all, its geography prior to the colonization of its South by Spain, the despoiling of its East by France, the attachment of some of its provinces to Algeria and the division of the rest of its territory into strata, again between France and Spain. In fact, the Cherifian Empire had been stripped, no doubt with a view to weakening it forever.
Now that the cold period between the two countries is over, the thorny issue of archives will be brought to the table, leading to an agreement that will enable the Cherifian Kingdom to recover more than two and a half million documents. The boxes that will be handed over to Morocco will undoubtedly be of real use and will have a major impact on the future of its foreign policy. They will undoubtedly weigh heavily in its relations with its neighbors.
My friend MH has just devoted a most pertinent reflection to the question, which he has published, as usual, on LinkedIn. With his permission, I'm publishing it here in its entirety. It is essential to read this text to understand what is really at stake in Morocco's insistence on recovering the said archives.
“Morocco and France have just reached a crucial stage in their relations with the signing of an official agreement providing for the transfer of some 2.5 million French archival documents to Rabat.
This development, which follows decades of Moroccan demands, is of major strategic importance. These documents, which contain valuable information on Morocco's historical claims and territorial borders, particularly in areas disputed since the end of the colonial era, reinforce the legitimacy of Moroccan positions.
This transfer of archives concerns in particular illegally occupied territories such as the Eastern Sahara, a region whose sovereignty is at the heart of disputes between Morocco and Algeria. These documents provide historical evidence likely to consolidate Moroccan claims to these territories.
At the meeting which formalized the agreement, Moroccan and French officials stressed the importance of this documentation in resolving territorial disputes and recognizing Morocco's historical rights.
The agreement sent shockwaves through the Algerian regime, which was particularly concerned by the handover of the archives. Algeria, aware of the validity of Morocco's claims, fears that these new historical elements will strengthen Morocco's position in international forums.
For decades, Algerian leaders have sought to deny the legitimacy of Moroccan claims. To conceal these claims and delay any negotiations, Algeria has found no better way than to create a conflict over the Western Sahara. In vain.
This agreement marks a decisive turning point not only in the management of historical disputes between Morocco and France, but also in the regional geopolitical balance. It is seen by many as an implicit recognition by France of the importance of the historical context in contemporary territorial claims. The handover of these documents to Rabat, after decades of claims, represents a major blow to the Algerian regime, whose positions are increasingly weakened in the face of a historical truth that is now accessible and indisputable.
Morocco, thanks to this agreement, strengthens its means of defense on the international stage, while Algeria, faced with a delicate situation, could see its arguments crumble in the face of irrefutable archival evidence. This transfer of archives is not only a diplomatic victory for Morocco, but also an act that sheds light on the historical injustices committed during the colonial period and the legitimate claims arising from them.”
Now that's been said, but above all, it's an eminently political gesture to return such archives, knowing the powerful impact this will inevitably have, namely on the geostrategy of the region. France knows it, Morocco knows it. As for Algeria, it has only its eyes to cry and, above all, to pull itself together and, why not, abandon the headlong rush that has characterized its day-to-day actions for a long time now....
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Enough Already! Part Two
... If Ruiz were still alive, maybe she’d cite, ‘Alternative Stats’.
The calls to ban Kenya from international athletics are getting more and more strident. But Kenya is neither East Germany nor Russia, where is has been conclusively proven that doping was/is state-aided and directed. This is freelance cheating. The Kenyan federation and politicians try to blame the ‘colonising’ agents and managers. But as one leading agent suggested to me last year, the incentives in the third world are far higher. One hundred thousand dollars is the equivalent of a life’s work compared to, say, a year or two’s salary to a first world athlete.
The delayed disqualification of numerous Olympic and world champions, via retroactive tests is bad enough; but frequently bypasses public scrutiny. However, the reaction to Chepngetich’s run – widespread disbelief and ridicule - suggests that this may be some sort of watershed. There are those, and I’m not far behind, if at all, who believe that there are few if no legitimate world records in athletics.
And if we can’t beat them, maybe we should join them?
Maybe it’s time to declare open house; just let the dopers get on with it, and we enjoy the spectacle? After all, sport is often a surrogate target, an excuse to ignore the greater ills of society. In reality, what is a doping offence in contrast to corporate theft, fomenting an insurrection or committing genocide?
* I dedicate this column to the British restaurant writer, Jay Rayner (who happens to be Jewish) who, within days of the Israeli assault on Gaza a year ago, had the courage to use his weekly column in the Observer to call out the overkill. He followed up with an even more accusatory piece a few weeks later.
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Enough Already! Part Two
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Enough Already!
Kenyan athletics is like Binyamin Netanyahu – completely out of control! I make no excuses for the comparison. Sometimes we pay too much attention to our daily diversions – bread and circuses - and not enough to the grotesque injustices being perpetrated by people like the Israeli prime minister who appears to be prolonging his genocidal invasion of Gaza and Lebanon for the sole purpose of saving his own skin. Forget that he’s probably a crook, likely to be jailed for financial malfeasance when the dust settles. What he certainly is is a war criminal. Of course, the Hamas incursion and slaughter of October 7, 2023 was disgusting and disgraceful. But the biblical vengeance visited on the largely innocent population of Gaza (and now, Lebanon) by the Israeli Defence Force under the command of Netanyahu is an affront to humanity. And western governments (and media), informed by Joe Biden’s fetishist attachment to Israel, are complicit in this. Hopefully, when the humanitarian hiatus occasioned by the run-up to the US Presidential election is over, with the fervent hope that sanity prevails there, and Kamala Harris rather than the mentally ill Donald Trump wins, there will be a move to a cease-fire in the Middle East; and ultimately, an honest attempt at a two-state solution.
And so to the footnote which is the qualified shock of witnessing a woman, Ruth Chepngetich run 2.09.56 at the Chicago Marathon last Sunday. The qualification is that she is Kenyan, and suspicion if not guilt by association is overwhelming. The tally of Kenyan dopers runs into hundreds. Despite her credentials, previous fast(ish) marathons, a world title, plenty of victories and a rep for going out too fast, with the corollary that one day (last Sunday?), she wouldn’t fold and would do something truly extraordinary ultimately still doesn’t stack up to the mountain of beans that points to sub-2.10. And the plea that she has never tested positive doesn’t cut it either. There are plenty of culprits like that; take Marion Jones, for starters!
The excitement generated by the scintillating running of Kipchoge Keino and his colleagues and successors from the 1960s through the final decades of the last century, seen as some sort of manifestation of third world innocence has evaporated in the last 20 years with each successive announcement of a doping positive from this former Eden. When the use of EPO and its derivatives became widespread 30 years ago, the spectre of its use by East Africans – already benefitting from birth, nurturing and training at altitude, a recognised advantage in distance running – was invoked; and largely laughed off. Kenyans (and Ethiopians) won’t even taker an aspirin was the response.
Since the turn of the millennium, and increasingly during the last decade, scores of Kenyans have tested positive for performance enhancers; the tally is now over a hundred suspensions in the last couple of years alone. There are those who think this is some sort of vindication of the Kenyan testing programme when it is more likely to be lack of sophistication of the druggies compared to, say first world practitioners. And the Kenyan testing programme is far superior to the one in Ethiopia.
Much has been made of Chepngetich’s age, that she is too old for such a performance at 30; but Carlos Lopes won the 1984 Olympic marathon at 37, and set a world record the following year. Constantina Dita went one better and won the 2008 Olympic gold at 38. Lopes’ record incidentally was 2.07.12, just over two and a half minutes faster than Chepngetich. But there’s been a lot of (super)shoe leather worn out on the road in the 39 years since then; and doubtless, more sophisticated means of doping. There has also been a reappraisal of training for the marathon.
My long-time friend from back home in the Black Country, Jim Harvey, a successful coach in New England for the last four decades, writes, ‘The current trend is for elite marathon runners to be specialist in that one event. Traditionally Western elite athletes would compete on the track and when they had maxed out at 10,000m move up the distance to the marathon. Their preparation was often 10K training which was tweaked by adding distance to their long run and more duration to their tempo runs. Today top African runners often bypass track completely and focus on half marathon/marathon from the onset of their careers. Training for the elites has become more marathon-specific with long segments of the long run done at marathon or half marathon pace, depending on the duration of the effort. Also, the interval workouts contain longer repetitions off a short or float recovery with total volume often being up around 20K. The aim is to obtain relaxation at a fast sustained pace for a long duration and this can only be accomplished by practice in training.’
That transition probably began after the ten year hiatus in men’s world records, between Belayneh Dinsamo’s 2.06.50 in Rotterdam 1988 and Ronaldo da Costa’s 2.06.05 in Berlin 1998. After that, the floodgates opened, and records tumbled, down to the current (equally unfeasible?) 2.00.35 by the tragically dead Kelvin Kiptum of Kenya a year ago, also in Chicago.
When Almaz Ayana took the 10,000 metres world record apart in Rio 2016, I suggested (in her defence) that women’s long distance running was going through a similar transition and was still decades behind the men, ie going through a development like when Ron Clarke took 39 seconds off the men’s record in 1965. On reflection, I’m not so sure. The more so since, in succession, Sifan Hassan, Letesenbet Gidey and Beatrice Chebet (all of East African provenance) have taken chunks off, such that the record is now 28.54.14, almost half a minute faster than Ayana. And, to be even-handed, Paula Radcliffe’s 2.15.25 in 2003 was widely if more quietly disparaged. A friend of mine, a former 4min 10sec 1500 metres woman turned coach told me Radcliffe’s time was unlikely if not impossible without recourse to PEDs, and she’s Russian; so I figured if anyone was going to know…?
The incredulity which accompanies all these runs means that the perception of long distance running feats has moved from the middle of the high road to the gutter.
Because even with the shoes, the training and the inevitable march of progress, the caveats cannot dispel the suspicions. Those of us who have been lifetime runners and follow the sport assiduously will doubtless feel the same as my illustrious colleague, former Boston winner Amby Burfoot who has already written a very measured but equally condemnatory piece about Chepngetich, citing the 1980 Boston Marathon cheat Rosie Ruiz, ‘We runners all knew immediately that she was a fraud. We had no proof, but we knew’. If you don’t know the tale, briefly, a plumpish Ruiz started the race, dropped out shortly afterwards, took a metro to a mile or so from the finish, re-joined the race and jogged in the ‘winner’. It took a week to unmask her...
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Enough Already!
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Africa's inescapable awakening must be taken into account as a matter of urgency.
Is the world truly aware of the great changes taking place before our eyes?
Probably yes.
But then what does he do to anticipate them, accompany them, prepare and above all to make them assets of development, peace, harmony and coexistence.
What do we do to combine them in efforts to understand each other, in common strategies, while geopolitics is impacted and is evolving, a little freewheeling anyway?
The answer is unequivocal: not much. Instead, some are trying to save time, some pushing the dust under the carpet and or are just resisting.
For what reason and until’ when?
It is clear that the "dominant powers" do not want to see things evolve differently, no desire to see contexts move other than in the consolidation of their historical, economic and political gains.
For « The up’ until when », the answer is even more complex. Depending on whether one is located north or south, the perspective is different.
The youth of the south, is now more and more qualified, better and better trained, more and more ambitious. It no longer understands things with the defeatist and resigned logic of their elders.
The populations of the south, especially those of ’Afrique, are no longer sensitive to the hollow discourse of revolutionary ideologies, formerly served as a poultice to coax them, or even silence them, while waiting for better days.
Napoleon is attributed in 1816 : « So Let China sleep, because when China S’awaken, the whole world will tremble ». We know since that China is very much awake... and in what way. Alain Peyrefitte predicted it well, in turn.
Funny story, no one has ever said such a thing with regard to Africa.. And yet,’Africa is well out of its sleep... So wait for to get rid of a little.
China, is not much’ in front of’Africa, if not the resurrected legacy of Confucius skillfully combined with a communist pragmatism that nobody’ had imagined.
Africa is much larger, with a larger and constantly growing population. Its young people are lively and enthusiastic. It's the world's largest island, compared with all the other continents.
The so-called ‘dark continent’ has many assets, but it probably also has a few disadvantages that could block or slow down the momentum. We can list them in no particular order: the subservience of certain leaders, a number of failing political regimes, toxic borders inherited from colonialism, endemic corruption encouraged and supported by multinationals and certain Western regimes and their services, and a deeply rooted fatalism.
But Africa is also determinedly dynamic. Travel to the east, west, north or south of the continent and you will see that Africa is in turmoil. Young people are talking, acting, working, innovating; they are doing politics differently and they want to change things. Their aspirations are growing, if not limitless.
Of course, there are still some fools who swear by immigration, but that will soon fade. Growth prospects and the rates already achieved in some countries will change the situation.
Overall, the 54 African countries have understood what is at stake and are increasingly aware of the possibility of imposing themselves and their point of view for the benefit of their young people. Remember the altercation between the President of the DRC and President Macron, or the historic speech by King Mohammed VI on the occasion of Morocco's return to African Unity. (you can find the link to the speech below)
The ambitious ZLEKAF is undoubtedly the most daring response, as are the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline, the fertilizer manufacturing platforms, the tunnel project between Morocco and Spain, and the Giga factories that are being set up there, to name but a few.
Two factors determine these trends: geography and demography. Both are in Africa's favor.
In this changing context, there are two ways to act: either integrate the continent into a process of recognition, esteem, respect for dignity and co-development; or risk the most bitter confrontations and clashes. France has been aware of this during recent time... and this is only the beginning.
The one and a half billion inhabitants, i.e. more than a quarter of the members of the United Nations, must be taken into account as a matter of urgency.
So shouldn't Africa be integrated into global governance as soon as possible?
Should we not heed Africa's solemn appeal to be given seats on the Security Council as soon as possible in place of the three non-permanent members?
Should we not start paying a fair price for what the West is pumping into Africa?
These are all questions that urgently need to be answered sensibly and pragmatically, because the normal course of history is as Ibn Khaldun already observed...
Either evolution is controlled and channeled to the benefit of all, or change is going to come with pain... to the benefit of the most numerous, whom neither weapons, borders nor migratory blockade policies will be able to curb or stop.
Africa is in the process of cleaning itself up, but not for long before its great awakening.
An inevitable resurrection.
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A threat we are not prepared to face
Read time: 4-5mins
In 2021 as I was finishing my Bachelor's degree, I wrote this article after the overnight shutdown of the Facebook servers - After the global outage caused by Crowdstrike and Microsoft, I decided to share it again.
Article below:
Have you ever asked yourself what would happen if the internet shuts down ?
On the 4th of October 2021, Facebook servers shut down causing the Whatsapp and Instagram Apps also to not work. So let’s ask ourselves a question : Were we prepared for that ? Well yes, people were still using platforms like Telegram, Signal and mail for texting, others were using Twitter and TikTok for scrolling etc… But if the internet suddenly stops working, what would happen to the financial markets such as real estate, stocks, cryptocurrencies ? Let us look for a way to be prepared for it.
The carrington event:
In 1859 mankind witnessed the Carrington event, named after the scientist Richard Carrington, this phenomenon is also known as a geomagnetic storm. On a calm afternoon of September, Carrington witnessed a sudden flash of increased brightness on the surface of the Sun that lasted for a few minutes while watching the observable Universe with his telescope. At that time we didn’t know what this light was but today we know that it is a solar flare. The same night a few hours later, we noticed green and blue lights travelling across the skies which are today known as the Aurora Borealis. At that time of course, people were very shocked and the solar flare caused the whole telegraph system to shut down but there was no internet or satelites so life moved on as if nothing happened. So what would happen if a Carrington event of that caliber strikes us today, specifically to financial markets ?
We are for almost two years now, the victims of the COVID-19 pandemic and we were absolutely not prepared for it even if scientists kept warning us. For weeks we did not know what we were facing and globally, most of the businesses stopped working and are still recovering from it today. Now if a virus of 100 nanometers of diameter can cause us to stay at home for 1 year, what would be the impact of a solar storm ?
Risks we face in front of a Solar Flare:
Relax, we people do not risk anything violent or apocalyptic because the earth amosphere will shield us from x-rays, gamma rays and cosmic radiations but our society and our routine will be affected. How is that ?
In former times, messages, money transfers or even news took days, sometimes months to get to destination, people would even do the delivery as a job. Today you can be in Tokyo and still facetime a friend who is in Europe or Brasil, you can send mails and get immediate answers, buy stocks from the NYSE even if you are in Africa etc… but all of this is not really wireless. In fact the 380 underwater cables that are spanning a lenght of over 1.2 million kms connect all the continents and are the reason we can do all we do today, alongside the 6542 satelites orbiting the planet at the moment. These cables are not really affected by geomagnetic currents but due to their lenght we had to install repeaters along certain gaps and those repeaters are susceptible to fail and if they do, an entire cable that connects two continents, instantly disconnects them.
What if the power grid is down ?
Let’s imagine the worst case scenario where our power grid gets knocked, that could cause a wolrdwide blackout, but not only because our satelites will also be disabled, which means we will not be able to buy stocks or crypto anymore but that is not our biggest concern since we won’t be able to place phone calls, we will not be able to know what is happening since google or the TV are not functionning anymore, we will also not be able to charge our electronic devices which means no more zoom meetings ; navigation systems would break which means no more airplanes and last but not least places that accept credit cards will not be able to take payments. Unfortunately it gets worse, our health would also be affected since all of the material in hospitals are electronic so hospitals won’t be able to work normally. This is without mentionning the unability to maintain the stock of food because how can you do that without refrigirating systems, also that means no more ice cream. To sum up, this would cause a global mess followed by a movement of panic.
In that scenario, lots of markets would collapse but curiously markets like the real estate or the stock market would not because we would simply do it the old way, a piece of paper and a pen and you are good to go, it would be a lot slower, but it would survive. Most of us would also have to go back to the unfashionned way : barter. And since neither banks or financial instruments would be available, the people who have been saving a heavy load of cash or simply people that bought gold would be saved. What an irony, the most powerful tool we created is the internet, because there is no off switch that could turn off the whole thing, but here is the off switch right in front of our eyes sitting at a few million kilometers : a hot ball of glowing gasses at the heart of our solar system.
Real estate in the 19th century :
The probability of happening of a Carrington event According to the PNAS, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the US, the probability of a Carrington event happening is once every 150 years, and we are not sheltered from it. In 2012 there was an unusual and strong solar superstorm that luckily got dodged by 9 days. In fact when the storm passed, our planet was 9 days behind in the rotation cycle from the path of the storm.
The famous boxer Mike Tyson once said « everyone has a strategy, until they get kicked in the mouth ». So let us not give up what we need most for what we want now and unlike the COVID-19 pandemic, be prepared. The potential that would cost us a Carrington event financially is not shy of 2 Trillion USD, which represents 2.5% of world’s GDP. Of course it will only be a matter of time before the competent authorities fix the problem, which could be a week or a month, and life in the 21st century will go back to its fullest.
Aouani Khalil
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A threat we are not prepared to face
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THE END OF AN EPOCH
I've never heard anybody ask the question, "how risk adjusted is civilization?" I suspect that many of us know the answer. Even if we refuse to admit it, civilization is not secure. We are in the most consequential period of modern human history. Not only are times changing faster than they ever have before, the avenues to our demise are most plentiful.
I have a few theories about the universe, the first being that all things bring about their opposite over a sufficiently long time. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. Thus, all things are paradoxes.
The second being that all things are connected through mutual mechanics. All things are conscious (panpsychism), which is a controversial take, and my argument is that our conscious thinking clearly has an effect on the world, so consciousness must be a physical force.
The third being that good and evil are fundamental forces. Good seeks to create life and evil destroys the vessel it occupies. Goodness is God and evil is Satan. All things are paradoxes, thus evil creates good and vice versa. Examples of evil include suicide and hedonism (like homosexuality and pedophilia, though there's a big difference between a homosexual who has children and a homosexual who chooses sexual satisfaction over preservation of life).
My final theory is that the mechanics that govern consciousness and physics enforce the paradoxical nature of the universe. An epoch is a period of birth and death as all forces become balanced, continuing like a wave. All things are connected through magnetic and electric forces, it's just to complicated to understand in practice.
If we are to then inspect civilization, we see a rise in evil. There is an epoch fairly frequently, about 80 years, or one human lifetime, that oscillates between evil and good. The last time it happened was WW1/WW2. We are right on point for another collapse of our values. There are plenty of signs, like the prevalence of homosexuality, which is evil in nature because it destroys the vessel it's in. Western society is on the brink of population collapse, suicide rates have risen sharply, especially among younger people, and faith in the principles of our society has never been weaker. Divorce is commonplace, dating is a nightmare, and quite simply, people see less value in life and each other. People on the street dress like mental patients and children go to school to learn that queer is good and they should distrust their parents. Free speech is under assault and Liberal Democracy is on the verge of collapse.
How long can we go without blowing ourselves up in nuclear war? Or allow AI to destroy us? Or spread devastating bioweapons? Or even a large scale conventional war? Evil destroys the vessel it occupies.
From these ends, I believe we're on the verge of the end of an epoch.
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THE END OF AN EPOCH
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But what is happening before our eyes?
What is happening to the world?
France is about to stand to attention under the rule of a man who has barely passed his baccalaureate, but who is nonetheless charming and appealing. An angel's face that has managed to conceal an entire history of adulated hatred, obvious racism, claimed segregationism and the overt fascism of the party it embodies. As if by magic, with the help of the bought-in media, the young bachelor managed in the twinkling of an eye to disguise an entire ideology and bamboozle the people of France, who would eventually realise that Vichy was no accident and that a very large proportion of the population at the time was not in the Resistance but rather in the Collaboration...
France is moving to the right, but nothing is really likely to change, at least not immediately, because for that to happen you need full power, and that requires a RN President, a RN Prime Minister and a RN parliamentary majority. The RN are not stupid and will know how to wait... unless young Bardella is in a hurry and has his own agenda aimed at overtaking Mme Le Pen and putting her out of the running for the next presidential elections. Will he be in such a hurry to move quickly? Possibly, but unlikely. In any case, the attitude of the amateur President, a poker player, will have been the cornerstone in accelerating the success of the RN and is now the propellant of the expected rise to the presidency of Mme Le Pen, in a short time... Because with Bardella, Macron will no doubt be kept under "house arrest" at the Elysée Palace by his sweetheart, and no more.
Far from it, in South Africa we were expecting the real change desired and wanted by the rainbow people, after decades of ill-fated 'dictatorship' by the ANC, which has made memory rent the sole basis of a policy that has led to disaster and the hopeless impoverishment of a large fringe of the population. This will not be the case. The ANC has just obtained 20 of the 32 ministerial posts in the new so-called government of national unity. The most important missions have not escaped it in this unprecedented government. Finance, Energy, Foreign Affairs, Police and Justice remain in ANC hands. The main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, has only been given six portfolios in the new government: Agriculture, Environment, Home Affairs and Public Works - in other words, the breakthrough ministries.
On the other side of the Atlantic, things are not looking good. The recent Biden-Trump debate revealed an America staggering to the rhythm of the crumbling president. America is going through a real disaster, a moment unprecedented in its history, a moment of confusion and political fatigue. A moment that makes you wonder whether it was possible for Americans to have sunk so low and for their major parties to have become so locked in a historically astonishing blindness. The world's leading power thus appears to be in a state of serious decrepitude, presenting the world with a spectacle of desolation and shipwreck. The American people have a choice between a colourful, neo-authoritarian old man and another old man who is crumbling and still president, but who won't give up... Isn't it embarrassing for the American people (50 million live viewers) to see their president's memory failing, a president who has lost the coherence of his words, lining up words in sentences that are as inaudible as they are confused. Isn't it embarrassing for them to see that, opposite them, their only choice is a colourful character whose run-ins with the law are not about to get any easier.
Let's go back to Africa and see that the Mauritanians have chosen continuity with Ould El Ghazouani, whom they re-elected with nearly 56% of the vote... Will this time be the right time for stability in this Sahelian country, a colonial legacy with a population of barely 5 million, which has undergone more than one brutal change through successive coups d'état, a country where political crisis is an almost permanent feature of daily life; tribal and personal rivalries are bitter and unremitting.
This is the way the world is going, a world that is certainly changing but not very reassuring... In any case, this is not the world that we dreamed of and that we are preparing to bequeath to future generations.
But what is happening before our very eyes?But what is happening before our very eyes?
That's the way the world works. Doubts here, worries there, but there's no doubt that tomorrow will be different - yesterday was already different from today...
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But what is happening before our eyes?
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A weak G7, weaker than ever...
Giorgia Meloni, the woman propelled to power by the Italian outer right-hand, received the G7 in an unprecedented situation. Of all those present, she is probably the only one to feel strong, while the others are almost all politically weakened or moribund.
The situation in Great Britain is in the process of pushing Mr Rishi Sunak out of office, with Brexit just around the corner and the situation far from stabilising, especially economically. Its French neighbour is going through the same nightmare, having been forced to call a general election following the debacle of his majority in the European elections, to the benefit of Mr Jordan Bardella,with only the baccalaureate in hand, who no doubt dreams of attending the next G7 summit alongside Mr Macron. Cohabitation is not far off... Macron has played Russian roulette and risks receiving the only bullet in the barrel in the heart.
Not far from there, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, unable to become a worthy successor to Angela Merkel who is back to normal life, is also in great difficulty and has been genuinely weakened since the last European elections. Among other things, he has come under fierce criticism from within his own coalition.
The representatives from across the Atlantic at this summit are in no better shape. Mr Justin Trudeau, who is going through a difficult time both at home and politically, looking more attenuated than ever. Some Canadians are even saying that Canada has never been in such bad shape. His American neighbour is also exhausted and is not certain of staying in the White House, with Donald Trump bullying him and showing his fangs.
So it was a G7 of people bathed in weakness that Ms Meloni received in a superb pink suit, as if to signal to her peers that she, the woman in the group, was the only one comfortable in her chair.
Madame Meloni, who called Macron irresponsible few months ago, was there strutting her stuff and looking down on him. She'll probably be there, at another G7 with a triumphant president Mme Lepen...or who knows, President Bardella.... an Italian next to a italian...Bardella is Italian origin.
So in this G7 of weakness, once decried, fascism finds itself powerfully rehabilitated and frequented... Mussolini and why not Hitler are so happy about it in the depths of their graves... Their offspring are doing a good job and today dominate the most powerful political and economic group, the G7, which is also becoming the group of shame in the eyes of those who still believe in the greatest lie of modern history: humanism and universal values...
The question that arises is whether the real winner in this situation of Western uncertainty is none other than the Absent-Present Vladimir Putin... who has just won the elections by a landslide, and who awaits all these fine people on Ukrainian soil...
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HYBRID VIGOUR
You may remember that quaint old adage, ‘Keep Politics Out of Sport’. It had its heyday among apologists for the South African government at the time of the sporting boycott of the apartheid era. There has probably never been a dumber slogan. It would be like Castor without Pollux or Laurel without Hardy. Politics has as much relevance on the playing field as in Parliament, in the dressing room as in the boardroom. I don’t doubt that the boycott of sports-mad South Africa contributed substantially to the end of racial separation.
And thanks to the collision of the European Athletics Championships in Rome and the Europe wide elections - save in that isolated outpost of the once Roman Empire, Great Britain & Northern Ireland – you cannot have failed to notice that a preponderance of countries represented here in the Stadio Olimpico feature, well, a lot athletes of colour.
Even ignoring, for example, that Britain’s crumbling National Health Service would fall apart completely, were it not for immigrant labour, from surgeons to janitors, what better antidote than this parade of multi-racial excellence to those people and parties who are lurching to the right if not the far-right, driven by anti-immigration policies?
Other nations in Europe have long been used to British and French teams fielding athletes whose parents, one or both, hail from colonial outposts. But, gradually other European countries’ immigrants or their offspring began to make their presence felt if not in all walks of life, then certainly on the sports field. Countries from Sweden in the north to Portugal and Italy in the south, to Ireland in the west and Romania in the east have joined in as is apparent in Rome; and that includes conservative Switzerland where women only secured the vote in 1971.
I am reminded of a fascinating hour or so I spent with Lee Evans in Athens 40 years ago. Evans was the first man to run under 44 seconds (43.86sec) when he won the Olympic 400 metres in Mexico 1968. A Fulbright scholar and a vocal proponent of racial equality, Evans and his fellow US medallists Larry James and Ron Freeman wore Black Panther berets on the victory rostrum in Mexico, emulating with less clamour the black-gloved salute of their 200 metres colleagues Tommie Smith and John Carlos. Aussie silver medallist Peter Norman sported a badge of the Olympic Project for Human Rights in sympathy. Following his relegation to third by Norman, Carlos incidentally made a comment, maybe tongue-in-cheek, but which still resonates today, ‘I didn’t know a white guy could run that fast!’ When Norman died in 2006, Smith and Carlos repaid the compliment; they flew to Melbourne to be pall-bearers at his funeral.
But, back to Evans: we had been invited to an Olympic symposium in Athens in the mid-1980s, he for his celebrity and subsequent teaching and coaching career in Africa, me since I had managed to con my way into a job on a newspaper which still had a vestige of prestige around the world. I don’t know how we got on the subject, and I was very wary of saying the wrong thing, but Evans had no such constraints. He lectured me on ‘hybrid vigour’ or cross-pollination, a term better known in botany, and something that racists would call miscegenation, ie inter-marriage and procreation. Evans had no qualms, citing several leading athletes of mixed race from that period four decades back, including Daley Thompson, a product of a Nigerian father and Scottish mother, who had recently won his second Olympic decathlon title.
Evans claimed that humans are nothing special, and although he didn’t use the term, he argued that we, like animals and plants are simply part of the same eco-system, responding to the same dynamics; whence his championing of hybrid vigour.
The evidence of his thesis is manifest in the continuing rise of rainbow nations on the track and field of endeavour called Athletics.
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HYBRID VIGOUR
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The West Misunderstands Putin
Putin can't go to war with NATO (the West is right on that point), but he's not being given an option. Western forces are ramping up the support for Ukraine as progress stalls and Russian forces see significant gains. Putin's perspective is that he is already at war with NATO because he's fighting Western arms from Western funds. The West sees it as a question of Ukrainian sovereignty. Ukraine is independent, it should be able to defend itself, even against the threat of a nuclear weapon. Western leaders have blocked all communication channels for a ceasefire under the naive assumption that Ukraine can win back all the territory and everything will be merry.
Putin now is threatening to launch a nuclear bomb in Ukraine. Putin thinks he's at war with NATO, a war he can only win with nuclear weapons. The Russian army vs NATO with sanctions would smoke Russia's forces 99 out of 100 days unless there are nuclear weapons. Nukes are the only defense Russia has against a major conflict with NATO.
Remember, Putin went into the war telling his people that Ukraine was becoming too friendly to the West and needed to be stopped from joining NATO. He can't go back to his people and say we lost, Ukraine got all their territory back, and they're going to join NATO. It's a Western fantasy. He will drop a nuke first.
He is pleading to the West to take his warnings seriously, but Western leaders think he's bluffing. He is being given no choice but to demonstrate that Russia is a force that needs to be respected. His only way to do that is to drop a nuke.
The Russian people don't take kindly to being embarassed on an international stage. Neither did the Germans before WW2. It's why Russians care so much about winning at the Olympics, or having the best chess players.
The Russian mentality is suicidal. They still love Stalin after he killed 20 million of his own people because Stalin made the Russian people seem formidable. The Russians will die before they look like cowards. That's why Putin's only choice is to win territory in Ukraine or drop a nuke.
I think WW3 is about to begin. According to Russian newspapers, Putin does too.
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The West Misunderstands Putin
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The future of AI is Small and then Smaller.
We need smaller models, but don't expect big tech to develop them.
Current state-of the-art architectures are very inefficient, the cost of training them is getting out of hand, more and more unaffordable for most people and institutions. This effectively is creating a 3 tiers society in AI:
1- Those who can afford model development and training (Big tech mostly). And make *foundation models* for everybody else
2- Those who can only afford the fine tuning of the *foundation models*
3- Those who can only use the fine tuned models through APIs.
This is if far from an ideal situation for innovation and development because it effectively creates one producer tier (1) and 2 consumer tiers (2 and 3). It concentrates most of the research and development into tier 1, leaves a little for tier 2 and almost completely eliminates tier 3 from R&D in AI. Tier 3 is most of the countries and most of the people.
This also explains why most of the AI startups we see all over the place are at best tier 2, this means that their *Intellectual Property* is low. The barrier to entry for competition is very low, as someone else can easily replicate their product. The situation for tier 3 AI startups is even worst.
This is all due to two things:
1- It took almost 20 years for governments and people to realize that AI is coming. In fact they only did it after the fact. The prices for computer hardware (GPUs) where already through the roof and real talent already very rare. Most people still think they need *Data scientists*, in fact they need: AI Researchers, DevOps Engineers, Software Engineers, Machine Learning Engineers, Cloud Infrastructure Engineers, ... The list of specialties is long. The ecosystem is now complex and most countries do not have the right curriculums in place at their universities.
2- The current state-of-the-art models are **huge and extremely inefficient**, they require a lot of compute ressources and electricity.
Point number 2 is the most important one. Because if we solve 2, the need for cloud, DevOps, etc... decreases significantly. Meaning we not only solve the problem of training and development cost, we also solve part of the talent acquisition problem. Therefore, it should be the absolute priority: __we need smaller, more efficient models__.
But why are current models so inefficient. The answer is simple, the first solution that works is usually not efficient, it just works. We have seen the same things with steam machine and computers. Current transformer based models, for example need several layers of huge matrices that span the whole dictionary. That's a very naive approach, but it works. In a way we still have not surpassed the Deep Learning trope of 15 years ago: Just add more layers.
Research in AI should not focus on large language models, it should be focusing on small language models that have results on par with the large ones. That is the only way to keep research and development in AI alive and thriving and open to most. The alternative is to keep using these huge models than only extremely wealthy organisation can make, leading to a concentration of knowledge and to too many tier 2 and tier 3 startups that will lead us to a disastrous pop of the AI investment bubble.
However, don't count on Big Tech to develop and popularize these efficient models. They are unlikely to as having a monopoly on AI development is on their advantage as long as they can afford it.
Universities, that's your job.
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The future of AI is Small and then Smaller.
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Impending Nuclear Apocalypse
An atomic blast releases three types of radiation: beta particles, neutron radiation, and gamma rays. After a few days the only radiation are neutron radiation and gamma rays from radioactive fallout. It's believed most people outside cities would survive the initial blasts. There will also be a nuclear winter, estimates show it could last from days to a decade, making it extremely difficult to grow food. Everything will be poisoned from fallout. I already have the basics: air filters, water filters, geiger counters, gold, guns, 6 months worth of canned foods, etc.
Many would survive up to this point, but come out realizing they have no source of clean water, food, and are already on the brink of death. Most would later die from radiation poisoning, cancer, starvation, or conflict over resources. It's believed that after two years, almost everybody would die.
Given the current war in Ukraine and it seemingly not having a resolution, nuclear war is more concerning every year. It is irresponsible to consider something potentially so devastating as irrelevant to our everyday concerns. The fact is that preparing a little can significantly increase your odds of survival and something everyone should do. As much as we don't like to think about it, it could actually happen.
**WHERE ARE THE TARGETS?**
In the case of a full-blown nuclear exchange, if you live in Europe, The Middle East, North America, Russia, China, Korea, or any countries in proximity, you are at high risk of being a direct nuclear target. The goal of a nuclear exchange isn't to kill as many people as possible in the blasts, but to make the aftermath as hellish as possible for the survivors. Primary targets will be military bases, major cities, and intermediary infrastructure. The aftermath will be absolute anarchy, as people are killed over shoes and canned beans.
**WHO'S PREPARED?**
There isn't a comprehensive list. Switzerland has fallout shelters to house her entire population.
**ARMOR YOURSELF**
Conflict over resources will be a major tension in a post-apocalyptic world. You want to protect yourself, not only from the potential of violence, but also radiation exposure. You want to be bulletproof. You want to be radiation resistant. Hydrogenated Boron Nitride Nanotubes (H-BNNTs) are 100x stronger than steel with best-in-class protection against neutron radiation. And unlike other ultra-high-strength materials, H-BNNTs are astonishingly easy to manufacture in bulk and spin into sheets. They're typically used to reinforce other materials and can be purchased in a powdered form for that purpose.
What I'm going to do is buy a full body cooling garment as an underlayer and build an exolayer of radiation-resistant plates. It sounds kind of silly, but in a radioactive world you need to protect cover yourself or you will probably get sick and die. This can only be done with impractically heavy layers or by using cutting-edge materials. H-BNNTs are also hydrophobic so radioactive matter won't stick to you. They also self-heal. Another reason this is an absolute must: unless sufficiently protected, nuclear radiation can make you impotent.
People will provoke you if you have things. Being resistant to small bullets with armored plates is invaluable. I'll also build a helmet I can screw air filters into. Consider the predicted mortality causes: radiation poisoning, cancer, starvation, or conflict over resources. An armored suit of such specification would effectively protect against radiation poisoning, cancer, and conflict over resources. It's remarkably valuable and there is no substitute.
How to make BNNT according to Jun Hee Kim et al.: "Ball milling is a promising technique to synthesize BNNT at industrial scale with low cost. In principle, direct reaction between boron and nitrogen in ambient conditions can be stimulated by introducing defective or amorphous structure in boron starting powders. This transformation is easily done by applying sufficient amount of mechanical energy that is controlled by several parameters such as milling time, and intensity (round per minutes). Therefore, the quantity of BNNT can be immensely produced in a typical run. This process is dependent on the milling time that could be extended to hundreds of hours, and the subsequent annealing of treated boron powder has an essential role in the formation of BNNT."
**BE SCARY AF**
Suppose your starving and have no weapons. You see someone walking and eating an apple from the bushes. If they don't look armed, you might want to jump them and steal their food. If they're wearing a full bullet-resistant armor suit with a semiautomatic rifle strapped to their back, you might think twice.
**SOURCES OF FOOD**
What are the best sources of food during the nuclear winter? Your neighbors and pets, and not in the way you'd like to think. You might not be able to grow anything outside. Sourcing energy for a greenhouse will be exceptionally difficult. People will also try to kill you if you do have food. You can mill flour out of cambium, the inner layer of tree bark, to make bark bread. You can also grow mushrooms and nutritional yeast. Dinner a la oyster mushrooms, nutritional yeast, bark bread, and bat meat. Not bad given the circumstances. Other than that, you're pretty much hopeless. There is no easy answer to the problem of finding food. Clean water can be sourced from a well or collected from the condensate of boiling water.
**WHERE SHOULD YOU HIDE?**
When you learn that nuclear war has been initiated, you should consider the amount of time you have, and go to your basement or another underground dwelling before the blast. It's important to stay underground for a 2-3 weeks, then you can come up and assess the circumstances. Make sure you have a geiger counter to assess your exposure to radiation.
**WHO'S IN CHARGE??**
The government would collapse. Some places would remain untouched by direct nuclear bombing. Countries in Africa, South America, Australia, South East Asia, Oceania, and of course Antarctica, may remain safe. Getting there would be a top priority. Aid packages may also arrive, but probably not. Every country would be suffering it's own ecological crisis as a result of radioactive material carried by weather.
There is also the possibility of haven cities that were not destroyed by blasts through shear luck. READ THE ROAD. Gangs will block the roads to take your things, but if you can't survive by yourself, it would be wise to try to find a haven city.
**NUCLEAR FANTASY**
Some places could be hit REALLY hard. In America, England, Poland, Russia, Ukraine, and other major targets, it would be a mistake to assume that society will ever be remotely similar. Some people hold out hope for gov aid. It won't be coming. The government will collapse. As Einstein said, WW4 will be fought with sticks and stones
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Impending Nuclear Apocalypse
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El Salvador: The most important country you barely hear about
El Salvador has a significant diaspora, so much that money coming from the US is a major source of income. **Not so long ago you would have been pressed to find a Salvadorian who wanted to go back to El Salvador. Now things seems to be changing.**
El Salavador, used to have one of the highest homicide rates in the Americas, now it looks relatively safe. El Salvador showed an interesting strategy. First boost the economy before handling the crime situation. Crime is indeed a part of GDP, albeit a hard one to quantify. Since it is an economic activity, it participates in exchanges and provides people with activities that supports them and their families. Drastically reducing crime has the effect of creating *'unemployed criminals'* people with a skillset that's hard to sell in a traditional economy.
El Salvador probably did take a hit to its GDP, but that was compensated by the increase in economic activity and investments.
Bitcoin was a big part of that.
Bitcoin got a lot of bad press as a technology only used by criminals, or a crazy investment for crazy speculators. These takes failed to understand the technology and it's potential. What Bitcoin offers is a decentralized, fast and secure payment system for free. El Salvador doesn't have to maintain it, regulate it, or even monitor it. All very costly activities that a small country can do without. Bitcoin is a mathematically secure way of payment.
In a country where road infrastructures are challenging, Bitcoin offers people in remote areas the possibility to pay their bills without travelling for hours. In a country that was unsafe, Bitcoin offered people the possibility to go out without the fear of being robbed.
It also attracted a kind of investors that would go nowhere else. And even if these investment can appear small, for a country like El Salvador it's a big change.
The Salvadorian experiment in a freer economy, crypto-friendly and smaller government, in a time of increasing inflation, has a lot of people watching. In a continent that leaned left for so long, this is a big change.
My opinion is that there would be no Javier Millier hadn't there been a Nayib Bukele before. Argentina has been a bastion of the left for decades. If the libertarian policies of Millier succeed in bettering the lives of Argentinians, we might be on the brink of a major cultural shift in the Americas and then the world.
Argentina is a far bigger country than El Salvador, with far more people watching.
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El Salvador: The most important country you barely hear about
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