Think Forward.

L'Indice de Développement Humain, un indicateur pas si pertinent qu'on ne le pense!!!! 1578

Saad M, 2 y.
Détails sur sa méthodologie de calcul afin de comprendre pourquoi c'est un indicateur bidon, trop simpliste, éloigné de la réalité et facilement traficable (Spoiler: Le Maroc peut grimper de la 123eme position à la 85eme en 2 clicks 3 mouvements). Tout d'abord l'Indice de Développement Humain (IDH) comme son nom l'indique est un indicateur censé mesurer et comparer le développement humain entre les différentes nations. Il est mesuré par 3 critères majeurs: ◆Le système de santé ◆Le système éducatif ◆Le niveau de vie Sauf que les métriques utilisées pour calculer l' IDH ne permettent pas d'avoir une vision globale sur tous les aspects du développement humain. Pire encore, ces métriques sont influencées par des phénomènes qui divergent du but initial. I- Santé La qualité du système de santé est calculée à partir de l'espérance de vie à la naissance or cette même espérance est dépendante de facteurs n'ayant pas de relation directe avec la santé comme le climat, la génétique, la nutrition, la géopolitique, la sécurité, le rythme de vie… La formule de calcul du Life Expectancy Index (LEI): (LE-20) / (85-20) Le Maroc a une espérance de vie de 74ans donc on a une LEI égale à 0.831 ce qui fait dire qu'on a un système de santé de niveau très élevée (>0.8) II- Education La qualité du système éducatif est calculé à partir de 2 métriques: ◆Durée moyenne de scolarisation pour les +25ans ◆Durée attendue de scolarisation pour les enfants en âge scolaire Sauf que ces métriques mesurent le volume d'étude en année et non pas la qualité de l'éducation. Sans oublier que chaque pays a son propre programme scolaire, ses propres priorités. Un Marocain lambda et un Français lambda, à niveau scolaire équivalent, n'ont pas les mêmes compétences. Le Marocain en général est plus fort en Maths. La formule de calcul du : Mean Years of Schooling Index(MYSI)= MYS/15 Expected Years of Schooling Index (EYSI)= EYS/18 Education Index(EI) = (MYSI+EYSI)/2 Le Maroc a un MYS de 5.9 ans et un EYS de 14.2ans==> On se retrouve donc avec un Education Index de 0.591 (moyen) le Maroc pourrait renforcer son programme de lutte contre l'analphabétisme déjà présente dans les mosquées tout comme il pourrait pousser vers plus de programmes de formation pour les ouvriers dans les usines, les fonctionnaires et les salariés du privés. En comptabilisant l'ensemble de ces 2 initiatives, le Maroc pourra passer easy en étant ultra-conservateur, en l'espace de 2 années, d'une durée moyenne d'éducation pour les +25ans de 5.9ans à 6.5ans. Ceci sans même prendre en considération le renouvellement de cette population qui se produit chaque année. Le Maroc pourrait aussi instaurer que chaque marocains a le devoir de passer par le préscolaire(3ans), le primaire(6ans), le secondaire: Collège+Lycée(6ans), le Bachelor(4ans) et le Master(2ans) ce qui fera passer la durée attendue de scolarisation de 14.2ans à 21ans. En prenant en considération ces 2 changements dans les métriques du critère d'éducation nous nous retrouvons alors avec un Education Index de 0.8 (très élevé) au lieu de 0.591 (moyen). III- Economie Le niveau de vie est mesuré selon Global National Income per capita en prenant en considération la parité de pouvoir d'achat sauf que cette parité est largement biaisée par plusieurs éléments. Les besoins et les habitudes de consommation diffèrent de pays en pays. Par exemple le panier de la ménagère en Algérie est faible en potassium ( Les bananes sont hors de prix là-bas) sans oublier que les subventions font gonfler le GNI (PPP) alors qu'on sait tous que les subventions se font avec l'argent du contribuable et sont destructeur pour l'économie. Sans rentrer trop dans le détail voici une comparaison entre GDP per capita(nominal) et le GNI per capita(PPP) des pays de l'Afrique du Nord pour l'année 2021 GDP: Maroc $3620 Algérie $3700 Tunisie $3870 GNI: Maroc $7303 Algérie $10800 Tunisie $10252 On voit clairement une différence artificielle qui se crée d'où la non pertinence du GNI. Le Income Index (II) est calculé par la formule suivante: (ln(GNIpc)-ln(100)) / (ln(75000)-ln(100)) Vu que le Maroc a un GNI de $7303 on se retrouve avec un II de 0.648 (moyen) En omettant les biais créé par la métrique du GNI per capita(PPP) et notre faiblesse dans notre outil de mesure statistique (HCP) et en prenant seulement en considération la réévaluation de notre PIB de 8,2% (changement de base). On se retrouver avec un II de 0.660 (moyen) IV- Synthèse L'ensemble du HDI (IDH) est calculé avec la moyenne géométrique suivante: ∛(Life Expectancy Index × Education Index × Income Index) L'application de la formule avec les données initiales du Maroc nous donne un HDI de 0.683 et nous classe en 123eme position. En étant très très conservateur dans nos changements: ◆Durée moyenne de scolarisation 5.9 à 6.5 ◆Durée attendue de scolarisation de 14.2 à21 ◆Changement de base du PIB On se retrouve alors avec un HDI de 0.760 ce qui nous placerai en 85eme position mondiale au lieu de la 123eme. On aura alors prouvé comment l'IDH est un indicateur trop simpliste, facilement corruptible et ne reflète en aucun la réalité. Pour être honnête je ne comprends pas pourquoi le Maroc ne s'est pas encore penché sur la méthodologie de l'IDH pour améliorer cet indicateur aussi inutile soit-il.
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Saad M

Saad M

Interest in Economics, Geopolitics, History and Sports.


1100

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THE ENCHIRIDION - I 2177

Bluwr X Commons: Epictetus, 2 y.
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1.1 min read.
There are things which are within our power, and there are things which are beyond our power. Within our power are opinion, aim, desire, aversion, and, in one word, whatever affairs are our own. Beyond our power are body, property, reputation, office, and, in one word, whatever are not properly our own affairs. Now the things within our power are by nature free, unrestricted, unhindered; but those beyond our power are weak, dependent, restricted, alien. Remember, then, that if you attribute freedom to things by nature dependent and take what belongs to others for your own, you will be hindered, you will lament, you will be disturbed, you will find fault both with gods and men. But if you take for your own only that which is your own and view what belongs to others just as it really is, then no one will ever compel you, no one will restrict you; you will find fault with no one, you will accuse no one, you will do nothing against your will; no one will hurt you, you will not have an enemy, nor will you suffer any harm. Aiming, therefore, at such great things, remember that you must not allow yourself any inclination, however slight, toward the attainment of the others; but that you must entirely quit some of them, and for the present postpone the rest. But if you would have these, and possess power and wealth likewise, you may miss the latter in seeking the former; and you will certainly fail of that by which alone happiness and freedom are procured. Seek at once, therefore, to be able to say to every unpleasing semblance, “You are but a semblance and by no means the real thing.” And then examine it by those rules which you have; and first and chiefly by this: whether it concerns the things which are within our own power or those which are not; and if it concerns anything beyond our power, be prepared to say that it is nothing to you.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM SAWYER - PREFACE 2282

Bluwr X Commons: Mark Twain, 2 y.
- Short Stories -
0.6 min read.
Most of the adventures recorded in this book really occurred; one or two were experiences of my own, the rest those of boys who were schoolmates of mine. Huck Finn is drawn from life; Tom Sawyer also, but not from an individual—he is a combination of the characteristics of three boys whom I knew, and therefore belongs to the composite order of architecture. The odd superstitions touched upon were all prevalent among children and slaves in the West at the period of this story—that is to say, thirty or forty years ago. Although my book is intended mainly for the entertainment of boys and girls, I hope it will not be shunned by men and women on that account, for part of my plan has been to try to pleasantly remind adults of what they once were themselves, and of how they felt and thought and talked, and what queer enterprises they sometimes engaged in. THE AUTHOR. HARTFORD, 1876.

THE MEDITATIONS - Book I.[1/3] 2343

Bluwr X Commons: Marcus Aurelius, 2 y.
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3.7 min read.
1. I learned from my grandfather, Verus, to use good manners, and to put restraint on anger. 2. In the famous memory of my father I had a pattern of modesty and manliness. 3. Of my mother I learned to be pious and generous; to keep myself not only from evil deeds, but even from evil thoughts; and to live with a simplicity which is far from customary among the rich. 4. I owe it to my great-grandfather that I did not attend public lectures and discussions, but had good and able teachers at home; and I owe him also the knowledge that for things of this nature a man should count no expense too great. 5. My tutor taught me not to favour either green or blue at the chariot races, nor, in the contests of gladiators, to be a supporter either of light or heavy armed. He taught me also to endure labour; not to need many things; to serve myself without troubling others; not to intermeddle in the affairs of others, and not easily to listen to slanders against them. 6. Of Diognetus I had the lesson not to busy myself about vain things; not to credit the great professions of such as pretend to work wonders, or of sorcerers about their charms, and their expelling of Demons and the like; not to keep quails (for fighting or divination), nor to run after such things; to suffer freedom of speech in others, and to apply myself heartily to philosophy. Him also I must thank for my hearing first Bacchius, then Tandasis and Marcianus; that I wrote dialogues in my youth, and took a liking to the philosopher’s pallet and skins, and to the other things which, by the Grecian discipline, belong to that profession. 7. To Rusticus I owe my first apprehensions that my nature needed reform and cure; and that I did not fall into the ambition of the common Sophists, either by composing speculative writings or by declaiming harangues of exhortation in public; further, that I never strove to be admired by ostentation of great patience in an ascetic life, or by display of activity and application; that I gave over the study of rhetoric, poetry, and the graces of language; and that I did not pace my house in my senatorial robes, or practise any similar affectation. I observed also the simplicity of style in his letters, particularly in that which he wrote to my mother from Sinuessa. I learned from him to be easily appeased, and to be readily reconciled with those who had displeased me or given cause of offence, so soon as they inclined to make their peace; to read with care; not to rest satisfied with a slight and superficial knowledge; nor quickly to assent to great talkers. I have him to thank that I met with the discourses of Epictetus, which he furnished me from his own library. 8. From Apollonius I learned true liberty, and tenacity of purpose; to regard nothing else, even in the smallest degree, but reason always; and always to remain unaltered in the agonies of pain, in the losses of children, or in long diseases. He afforded me a living example of how the same man can, upon occasion, be most yielding and most inflexible. He was patient in exposition; and, as might well be seen, esteemed his fine skill and ability in teaching others the principles of philosophy as the least of his endowments. It was from him that I learned how to receive from friends what are thought favours without seeming humbled by the giver or insensible to the gift. 9. Sextus was my pattern of a benign temper, and his family the model of a household governed by true paternal affection, and a steadfast purpose of living according to nature. Here I could learn to be grave without affectation, to observe sagaciously the several dispositions and inclinations of my friends, to tolerate the ignorant and those who follow current opinions without examination. His conversation showed how a man may accommodate himself to all men and to all companies; for though companionship with him was sweeter and more pleasing than any sort of flattery, yet he was at the same time highly respected and reverenced. No man was ever more happy than he in comprehending, finding out, and arranging in exact order the great maxims necessary for the conduct of life. His example taught me to suppress even the least appearance of anger or any other passion; but still, with all this perfect tranquillity, to possess the tenderest and most affectionate heart; to be apt to approve others yet without noise; to have much learning and little ostentation. 10. I learned from Alexander the Grammarian to avoid censuring others, to refrain from flouting them for a barbarism, solecism, or any false pronunciation. Rather was I dexterously to pronounce the words rightly in my answer, confining approval or objection to the matter itself, and avoiding discussion of the expression, or to use some other form of courteous suggestion. 11. Fronto made me sensible how much of envy, deceit and hypocrisy surrounds princes; and that generally those whom we account nobly born have somehow less natural affection. 12. I learned from Alexander the Platonist not often nor without great necessity to say, or write to any man in a letter, that I am not at leisure; nor thus, under pretext of urgent affairs, to make a practice of excusing myself from the duties which, according to our various ties, we owe to those with whom we live. 13. Of Catulus I learned not to condemn any friend’s expostulation even though it were unjust, but to try to recall him to his former disposition; to stint no praise in speaking of my masters, as is recounted of Domitius and Athenodorus; and to love my children with true affection. 14. Of Severus, my brother, I learned to love my kinsmen, to love truth, to love justice. Through him I came to know Thrasea, Helvidius, Cato, Dion, and Brutus. He gave me my first conception of a Commonwealth founded upon equitable laws and administered with equality of right; and of a Monarchy whose chief concern is the freedom of its subjects. Of him I learned likewise a constant and harmonious devotion to Philosophy; to be ready to do good, to be generous with all my heart. He taught me to be of good hope and trustful of the affection of my friends. I observed in him candour in declaring what he condemned in the conduct of others; and so frank and open was his behaviour, that his friends might easily see without the trouble of conjecture what he liked or disliked.