AI is a Big Geopolitical Issue 10111
500 Billion dollars to keep the USA the number one power in AI followed by Deepseek whose creators claim has been trained on lower grade hardware, and now the AI summit in Paris.
Modern AI is a breakthrough perhaps of the same magnitude as the steam machine or electricity, perhaps even bigger. It touches everything and, most importantly, for the first time it allows for the mechanization of intellectual work. Previous industrial major breakthroughs were focused on automatizing physical labor, AI offers the potential of automatizing the mind. The implications are hard to comprehend, but what is sure is that no nation wants to be left behind.
The world of AI is segmented on a few pillars:
1 - The theory and software: mostly public and open-source
2 - The talent that is rare: Becoming a top tier talent in AI takes time. Being able to use off-the-self AI designed by other people is not enough to drive breakthrough
3 - The infrastructure hardware: Most importantly GPUs that are virtually all controlled by one US company, NVIDIA
4 - Electrical Power: Modern AI requires datacenter that consume astonishing amounts of electricity
It is on these fronts that the big battles over AI supremacy and autonomy will be fought. Laying these pillars also highlights the dominance of the US: it is the first on every single one. The US has the top universities and AI companies. This Naturally translates to more talent available. The US has the only company capable of making high-end GPUs, and the US has the most electricity available.
Other nations should wisely pick their battles and focus where they can make most impact. France for example, with it's nuclear energy and engineering culture could make it's mark, and Germany is already a leader in semiconductors. There is potential in Europe, the major question is will regulations and fiscal regimes adapt fast enough to allow for rapid technological growth.
Even low and middle income countries could make a dent and enjoy the AI boom. Morocco is positioning itself as an electricity producer, and all countries could work on education and skill levels. The time where people had to leave the country to offer their services abroad is long gone. The internet has no borders, which also mean the brain drain does not need to happen! It's not impossible for a country to become a top tier exporter of high quality AI services. Again for it to happen, cross country work regulations, and exchange rate controls must be heavily simplified or completely removed.
Final words, If anything the Deepseek story is interesting because it potentially expands the market for NVIDIA. If the story is true, it means that the market is now bigger, not smaller because lower grade GPUs have suddenly become more useful, without questioning the supremacy of the last generations of NVIDIA's AI workhorses.
