Think Forward.

A Major Geopolitical Transformation in the Middle East 5411

Aziz Daouda, 2 mon.
The Middle East is undergoing a major geopolitical transformation, marked by a strategic realignment between Israel, the United States, and the Gulf powers. These latter, long marginalized from traditional alliances or subjected to them, are now asserting themselves as indispensable actors on the political, economic, and military stage, reshaping balances once considered historic and immutable. Since its creation in 1948, Israel has been the main Western ally in the Middle East, notably of the United States, which initially opposed its establishment, in a region marked by recurring conflicts. Its expansionist and influential policies, supported by Washington, have long crystallized tensions with several Arab countries and armed groups. However, this belligerent stance now seems contested, both by its neighbors and some of its traditional allies. In any case, it is widely disapproved of and even condemned by civil society everywhere. This cannot last. The most notable evolution in the region has come from the Gulf monarchies. After decades of hostility, they initiated a historic rapprochement with Israel, formalized by the Abraham Accords in 2020, under American impetus. These accords, signed notably by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, opened the way to strengthened cooperation, especially against Iranian influence, while fostering unprecedented economic and technological exchanges. The monarchies that did not sign these accords also have no qualms about dealing with Israel. Strong relations are also often mentioned between the Israeli state and Turkey, especially since it has been governed by Erdogan, a champion of Islamism. In this rapidly changing context, the United States has gradually reoriented its regional policy, focusing more on the Gulf monarchies, which offer political stability, financial power, and strategic positioning. The American military presence in the region, notably at the Al-Udeid base in Qatar, illustrates this new reality. During the 2025 American tour of the Middle East, nearly two trillion dollars in investments were announced, particularly in defense, technology, and artificial intelligence sectors. At the same time, Washington seems to adopt a more nuanced stance towards Israel, especially in the framework of negotiations with Iran, reflecting a diversification of regional alliances. Despite its military weight, Israel is gradually losing its exclusive influence, increasingly perceived as a source of tension. The current policies of Netanyahu’s cabinet, leading to a near-genocide in Gaza, do not help matters. Unlike previous decades, Arab countries, especially those in the Gulf, no longer systematically respond to Israeli provocations with force. Current leaders favor a pragmatic approach, now distinguishing the Palestinian cause from the actions of armed groups like Hamas. This evolution marks a turning point compared to the belligerent attitudes of past military regimes, which over time became de facto allies of the Zionist cause. Hassan II, a visionary, once said on this subject, "Hatred of Israel and the Jew is the most powerful aphrodisiac in the Arab-Muslim world." The Gulf monarchies, long proponents of a moderate discourse favorable to dialogue, are now imposing themselves as regional models of stability and cooperation with the West, as well as with Asian powers. Israel’s traditional role as the pivot of Western interests in the Middle East seems to be eroding in favor of a dynamic where Gulf monarchies take center stage. The multiplication of conflicts and the perception of an increasingly isolated Israel on the international stage—albeit mostly among populations—weakens its position. Europe, while hesitant, shows a hardening of tone towards Israeli actions, notably after recent incidents in the West Bank where diplomats were targeted by heavy fire from the Israeli army. This change in attitude can only strengthen the legitimacy of the Gulf monarchies as reliable partners for the West, as guarantors of regional stability and calm. The recent organization of a global conference on the Palestinian issue in Morocco, a signatory of the Abraham Accords and co-chaired by the Netherlands, illustrates this new dynamic. It is worth noting again that Morocco is a strategic ally of the Gulf monarchies, linked by multiple agreements, including defense. The words of Moroccan Foreign Minister Nacer Bourita are clear about the need to condemn all extremisms—implicitly Hamas extremism but also that of the current Israeli government. This discourse symbolizes hope for political renewal in the region, emphasizing respect for international law and the only possible solution: two states living side by side. This is also the position of France, whose president no longer hesitates to speak of recognizing the Palestinian state, making it a key element in his discussions during his many foreign visits. Addicted to blood and violence, Netanyahu no longer hesitates to accuse President Macron of crusading against the Jewish state. Excuse me? The Israeli leader is deeply wounded and has no plausible argument except to hide behind his own definition of antisemitism, which he throws around indiscriminately. It must be said that repeated American vetoes at the Security Council somewhat reinforce his delusion. Israel’s disproportionate reaction following the senseless Hamas attacks has become counterproductive for the Jewish state. As it seems to lose its role as the undisputed leader of Western interests in the region, the Gulf monarchies appear as the new stabilizers and promoters of peace in the Middle East. This geopolitical reshuffling could well redefine the balance of power in a region marked by incessant conflicts. The strong interconnection of the American economy with these countries, in light of the latest announced investments, will inscribe this emerging situation in a stable and likely lasting perspective. Israeli voters would do well to understand this quickly. At the next election, they should definitively rid themselves of these zealots who have only death on their lips and the extermination of a legitimate people as their goal.
Aziz Daouda

Aziz Daouda

Directeur Technique et du Développement de la Confédération Africaine d'Athlétisme. Passionné du Maroc, passionné d'Afrique. Concerné par ce qui se passe, formulant mon point de vue quand j'en ai un. Humaniste, j'essaye de l'être, humain je veux l'être. Mon histoire est intimement liée à l'athlétisme marocain et mondial. J'ai eu le privilège de participer à la gloire de mon pays .


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Confiscated Freedoms: El Harrach and Tindouf, Two Faces of the Same Oppression... 230

Aziz Daouda, 1 d.
It was while reading, moved, the heartbreaking letter from Algerian writer Boualem Sansal, addressed ultimately to everyone, that the idea for these few lines came to me. In this letter, written from El-Harrach prison, Sansal fiercely denounces the political repression and arbitrary incarceration imposed by the Algerian regime. This denunciation quickly made me think of the tragic situation of the population confined by the same regime for nearly fifty years in the Tindouf camps in Algeria. My thoughts wandered randomly between the zealots who are there, like my high school friend Sadati, bearers of a chimera; those who stay there without even knowing why; those who have aged there; those buried there; and those born there. It is on these last that my thoughts particularly lingered. The Tindouf camps shelter a few thousand young people born in exile, rather exposed where their parents ultimately did not choose to be, under extremely harsh conditions. For many, they are not even originally from the coveted lands nor bear any claim. They mainly depend on humanitarian aid, live in total precariousness, and see their well-being deteriorate, while those living just a few miles away enjoy abundance, comfort, and rights. They did not ask to be there and dream, like all their peers, of a better life, which truly exists on the other side. Unlike a traditional prison with visible walls, like El Harrach, the Tindouf camps are an open-air prison, a constrained space where these youths are held without trial, without hope of freedom, nor any possibility of returning to their homeland—not by their own choice, but that of their jailers. The common point between El Harrach and Tindouf: the sordid game of a military regime from another era. This prolonged situation strikingly evokes the deprivation of freedom suffered by the detainees of Tindouf and the Algerian political prisoners Boualem Sansal describes in his letter. Both embody the same silenced voice, the same hope confiscated by the whims of officers who only carry the name, and by a military caporalism that, since 1962, continuously invents enemies, uses torture, repression, and deprivation of fundamental rights to maintain its grip on one of the richest countries in the world. This regime has stifled all democratic expression, from annulling election results to the spectacular assassination, broadcast live on television, of President Mohamed Boudiaf, sending a message of terror to the whole people. Recently, it brazenly repressed the peaceful Hirak protests and imprisoned their leaders. This regime no longer hesitates to mistreat even its most loyal servants. Randomly, prime ministers, ministers, high dignitaries, businessmen, generals, and journalists, even foreigners, find themselves subjected to quick trials where only the voice of their master resounds. They end up in the same prison, the famous El Harrach. In his letter, Sansal expresses the physical and moral pain of a man imprisoned for having evoked history, dared to defend justice and dignity. His words carry the voice of all those whom the regime seeks to silence. This captive voice painfully echoes the fate of the youngsters held in Tindouf, also deprived of their most basic freedoms and condemned to endless waiting in a desert environment, hostile and hopeless. Far from being a mere analogy, this comparison reveals a universal reality: whether behind bars or in the vast inhospitable desert, deprivation of freedom, forced exile, and broken hope remain the instruments of relentless political oppression. For these youths, the "march through an endless desert" is both a physical ordeal marked by extreme poverty, scorching heat, and isolation, and a metaphor for their quest for identity, dream of regaining their freedom, and joining the motherland. Beyond denunciation, in his letter, Sansal makes a solemn appeal to France, asking it not to sacrifice its values on the altar of mercantile contingencies. The same appeal is addressed to the international community, on behalf of the young detainees of Tindouf, so that human rights principles are not sacrificed on the altar of geopolitical interests. This appeal is all the more relevant facing the situation of these youths, many of whom are not even originally from the Moroccan Sahara but are still imprisoned in a situation of exile and oblivion. Thus, behind two different walls, a prison cell and undocumented, unrecognized refugee camps, lies the same tragedy: human beings reduced to waiting, to deprivation of liberty, and to a silent struggle not to disappear. This convergence highlights the urgency of strong humanitarian and political action to end these imprisonments so that freedom of thought, of living, and of deciding one’s own destiny is never again captured by an oppressive political machine, devised and implemented by an anachronistic military staff. Thank you, sir, for awakening in me this fiber of compassion, even pity, for young people who deserve to live a better future. I take here again Boualem Sansal’s words, which I address to the youth imprisoned in Tindouf: *"Fear is a prison larger than the one where I find myself, and it is harder to break. But I know that one day, the wall will fall. Dictators always end up falling."* Youth of Tindouf, You will break the barbed wire, you will cross the checkpoints to return home by the strength of your character and the power of your will. Your country, that of your ancestors, the Kingdom of Morocco, awaits you; the future opens its arms to you; life will smile upon you for eternity, you will taste freedom there, the joy of living, of building yourself and of ensuring a happy future for your children. Your dreams will come true there and your ambitions will be realized. You will be the continuation of your ancestors in a diverse and powerful nation as it has been for centuries. You will help enrich humanity by your knowledge, your creativity, your genius. You just have to dare.