Europe Has Finally Chosen Rabat for the Future... 85
The European Union (EU) adopted a common position at the end of January 2026 on the Moroccan Sahara issue, explicitly supporting the Moroccan autonomy plan under its sovereignty over these provinces. The Union formally recognizes that the Moroccan solution is realistic and definitive to the artificial Sahara dispute, formerly occupied by Spain at the expense of the Sharifian Empire.
This was no surprise given the already established positions of major European powers. However, this unanimous consensus of the 27 member states marks a major diplomatic breakthrough for the Sharifian Kingdom, driven by international momentum and crowned by UN Security Council Resolution 2797 in October 2025, which explicitly calls for negotiations exclusively on the basis of the autonomy plan put forward by Morocco.
This position, aligned with those of many European countries expressed separately such as France, Spain, and Germany, strengthens the international legitimacy of the Moroccan plan. It opens prospects for reinforced strategic partnerships with the Union, particularly in economic matters through increased trade agreements, and in security, amid managing migratory flows and combating terrorism threats in the Sahel region.
For Rabat, this recognition consolidates the effective integration of the Sahara into the Kingdom, de facto achieved since 1976. It will inexorably accelerate investments in the country's southern provinces, fostering unprecedented inclusive development in the region: road infrastructure, the Dakhla Atlantique port, renewable energy with over 1,000 MW, and modern universities. Confident in its historical and geographical rights, backed by unassailable national unity, Morocco has not waited for this support to act. For nearly 20 years, a rigorous development strategy, including the New Development Model (NDM), has transformed the regions in question, rendering any solution other than Moroccan sovereignty obsolete. Day by day, the Kingdom's arguments have gained echo and credibility, its proposal proving just and logical.
Europe, just 14 km from Morocco's northern coasts, gains diplomatic coherence and benefits from North African stability embodied by the Sharifian Kingdom. The new resolution thus facilitates major trade agreements, such as the EU-Morocco fishing agreement extended in 2024 despite ludicrous challenges. Morocco, moreover, serves as the reliable pivot that stopped over 45,000 irregular crossings in 2024, according to Frontex, unlike other countries in the region. These are extremely costly operations for the Kingdom. European gains and regional momentum are therefore consolidated here.
Beyond that, the new resolution spurs inclusive North African economic integration, provided Algeria returns to the long-hoped-for pragmatism and aligns with the course of history. Nothing is less certain for the moment.
The context is that Morocco is emerging as a high-performing regional hub. It is now connected to West Africa and the Sahel via its highway network and the Tiznit-Dakhla expressway, the port of Tanger Med (Africa's number one), and the deep-water port of Dakhla, nearing final completion. Its trade with the region is growing, particularly with exponentially rising exports to sub-Saharan Africa. Arab unanimity in favor of the Moroccanness of the southern provinces and the African alignment that is tending to generalize, except for a few ideological exceptions or those under the influence of millions of dollars, accelerate this continental dynamic.
In contrast, Algeria is increasingly isolating itself, mocked by a global consensus rejecting its far-fetched theses. Heir to a bygone military-political regime, Algiers feeds on low-intensity conflicts to legitimize the omnipotence of an army contested by an oppressed people, stifled by repression, as evidenced by the Hirak protests crushed since 2019. Any hint of change is nipped in the bud. The art of exporting crises has reached its peak there and is now running out of steam. Sahel countries: Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, are increasingly openly criticizing Algeria's actions, seen as destabilizing through support for the Polisario, among other things. It is proven that the latter maintains more than relations with terrorist organizations plundering the region.
It is in this environment that the intensification of U.S. pressure for direct Morocco-Algeria dialogue fits, a dialogue always advocated without complex by Rabat. Algiers seems to struggle to digest this European debacle, compounded by the UN resolution and the fact that Morocco was invited by President Trump to join the new Peace Council as a founding member. Algerian media, usually loquacious and venomous, maintain a deafening silence or at most a statement attributed to a Sahrawi organization of dubious existence, calling on Europe to comply with a European Court decision, for lack of room to maneuver. Growing Russo-Chinese neutrality, the retreat of Iran, whose Revolutionary Guards and proxies are now classified as terrorist organizations by the United States and this same Europe, drastically weaken Algerian theses and reduce its margins for maneuver.
The Polisario, the Saharan proxy artificially maintained by Algiers and covertly supported by Iran, risks eventual moral and logistical collapse. Its representatives, who recently went to the USA thinking they were negotiators, were relegated to the rank of "thugs" after undergoing a tough interrogation, particularly on their ties to Iran's Revolutionary Guards. Algiers' berets, losing influence and facing internal tensions, consequently have nothing left to hope for without aligning with the international community.
Supplying gas and oil is no longer enough to weigh in or impose oneself. Price fluctuations, the broad diversification of suppliers, and embargoes envisioned against recalcitrants turn it into a vulnerability rather than an asset. Algiers will have to understand this, and quickly. The European position on the Moroccan Sahara is the final nail in the coffin of the Algerian Trojan horse, for those who can read the geopolitical fault lines.
