Think Forward.

Business

South Africa: twilight of a model and recomposition of African leadership? 155

Aziz Daouda, 7 h.
- World Politics - Business -
2.9 min read.
For three decades, South Africa embodied the image of a modern, industrialized Africa reconciled with its history. The end of apartheid in 1994 raised immense hope. With Nelson Mandela, the country seemed to demonstrate that a peaceful transition between communities long opposed was possible. The assessment is now more nuanced. The country is going through a period of deep economic, social and institutional turbulence that calls into question its ability to retain its status as the continent’s leading power. The difficulties are not due simply to an unfavorable economic conjuncture, but reflect structural weaknesses that have gradually accumulated over the years. The economy, long considered the most developed in Africa, is struggling to regain its dynamism. Growth remains weak while unemployment reaches alarming levels. Statistics South Africa reports 32% for the overall rate and 45% among youth in 2025, fueling social frustrations and a sense of downward mobility. Added to this are persistent failures of infrastructure. Power cuts, difficulties in the rail network, deterioration of public services as well as governance problems in state-owned companies weigh heavily on the competitiveness of the economy. The country’s attractiveness to investors, who for a long time considered South Africa the natural gateway to the continent, is strongly affected. Economic indicators are not, however, sufficient to measure the scale of the current challenges. The security question constitutes one of the main concerns. With more than 27,000 homicides each year, or nearly 76 murders per day, it is one of the most violent countries. In Johannesburg, Pretoria or Durban, security is a real concern. Neighborhoods protected by sophisticated security systems are multiplying; Orania is the archetype. Companies devote large budgets to private security, hence a general climate of distrust further weakening national cohesion. Tensions also manifest themselves in recurring xenophobic violence. Migrants are accused of being the actors of insecurity and become the scapegoats of a social frustration fueled by economic difficulties. At the same time, a part of the white population expresses a growing feeling of marginalization. Debates around affirmative action policies, land reform and economic redistribution feed perceptions of injustice and exclusion. The country struggles to build a durable balance between historical redress, social justice and national cohesion. For many years, the African National Congress (ANC) benefited from immense political capital inherited from the struggle against apartheid. This historical credit has eroded. Corruption scandals have deeply marked public opinion. The work of the Zondo commission on "state capture" highlighted the extent of networks of influence that affected the functioning of the state and several strategic public companies. More and more South Africans now consider that the country’s current difficulties can no longer be explained solely by the legacy of the past. Questions of governance, administrative efficiency and public management now occupy a central place in the national debate. Recent electoral results, which forced the ANC to govern within a coalition, illustrate this progressive loss of political hegemony. For several decades, South Africa largely dominated the continent on industrial, financial and technological levels. Today, new growth poles are emerging. Morocco is the most significant example of this evolution. Thanks to a coherent industrial strategy, the Kingdom has established itself as a major player in the automotive, aeronautics, renewable energies and logistics sectors. The Tanger Med port is the leading port platform in Africa and the Mediterranean, linking the Kingdom to more than 180 international ports. Moroccan automobile exports have reached record levels. The country is now the most industrialized on the continent. This hurts Pretoria. This progress does not mean the replacement of South Africa. The two economies have different structures and many complementary strengths. It nevertheless illustrates a gradual rebalancing of the continent’s economic centers of gravity. South Africa’s difficulties raise a strategic question rarely addressed: where will capital, skills and talent seeking more stable environments go? Economic history shows that transition periods are often accompanied by movements of capital, know-how and investments toward economies offering the best prospects. In this context, Morocco has considerable assets: institutional stability, modern infrastructure, proximity to European markets, free trade agreements, an attractive regulatory framework and a long-term economic vision. The challenge for Rabat is not to take advantage of Pretoria’s difficulties but to position itself as the major platform of African growth in the twenty-first century. It would be premature to announce the irreversible decline of South Africa. The country retains considerable assets: a diversified economy, leading universities, a sophisticated financial sector, significant industrial infrastructure and remarkable human capital. However, the experience recalls a fundamental reality: no leadership is permanently acquired. Economic power does not rely only on past achievements; it depends on the quality of governance, security, innovation capacity and the confidence a country inspires in its own citizens as well as foreign investors. South Africa remains an essential actor on the continent, but the rise of Morocco and other emerging poles in West Africa shows that African leadership is entering a new phase. The question is not who will dominate the continent, but which countries will best meet the demands of competitiveness, stability and innovation to be the leaders of tomorrow. In this regard, Morocco appears as one of the main beneficiaries of the ongoing geoeconomic recompositions, progressively confirming its ambition to become the strategic center of African development in the twenty-first century. Better informed about the Kingdom, many South Africans would be tempted to undertake and, why not, settle there. Large companies are already present.

Mehdi Tazi – Mohamed Bachiri: the duo that could reinvent Moroccan business leadership... 2293

Aziz Daouda, 14 d.
The election of Mehdi Tazi and Mohamed Bachiri to the head of the CGEM is not just a change of leadership; it may mark a cultural, economic, even political turning point in how the company, wealth, and those who take the risk to invest are perceived. What’s most striking is how quickly they have begun to take the field, proposing initiatives and showing that they do not see the CGEM as just another institution but as a genuine driving force at a particularly sensitive moment. The country is investing, infrastructure projects are scaling up, and 2030 is looming. The automotive industry is asserting itself, aeronautics is advancing, and other sectors are rising. Morocco aims to become an energy, logistics and industrial platform. But another reality persists: administrative burdens, taxation seen as discouraging, difficult access to finance for SMEs, regulatory rigidities, a culture of suspicion toward business, and the lack of a true national narrative around entrepreneurs. This is where the duo can become more than a mere employers’ leadership and help change the perception of the businessman. In part of the collective imagination, he is often caricatured as a predator, a privileged figure removed from social realities. Certain practices and collusions feed that perception. That vision has become unfair to thousands of entrepreneurs who create, invest, export, innovate, and shoulder hundreds of thousands of jobs. Starting a company is a daily fight. You must face international competition, costs, tax pressure, late payments, market fluctuations, banking constraints, social tensions and, sometimes, regulatory instability. Behind every factory that opens, every SME that survives, every successful export, there are citizens taking considerable risks. The CGEM’s major cultural challenge is to rehabilitate the act of entrepreneurship: to make people understand that producing wealth is not a moral fault; earning money honestly is not a scandal. Business is not the enemy of citizens but their protection against unemployment and precariousness. The CGEM can no longer be content to be a union. In major economies, employers’ organizations shape economic doctrines, inspire tax reforms and steer debates on labor, investment, competitiveness and innovation. In Morocco, political parties speak more about redistribution than about wealth creation. A country cannot redistribute what it does not produce. The duo must shift the debate and push it toward structural issues: further freeing private investment, lightening bureaucracy, making taxation more stimulating for productive investment, accelerating dirham convertibility and loosening currency restrictions, turning SMEs into African champions and fostering a new generation of industrial and tech entrepreneurs. Morocco has often operated with a cautious, managed and controlled economy. That approach has brought stability. But the world is changing at brutal speed. Only countries that dare move forward. Will they have the boldness to propose reforms? Taxation is often perceived as heavy for value creators. Many businesses feel penalized for growing rather than encouraged to take risks. Currency restrictions, despite positive developments, also continue to limit certain international ambitions, notably for startups. The next government will need to make courageous choices, and the CGEM must move out of a defensive posture to become an offensive source of proposals, with less corporatism and more national vision. At heart, the real question is simple: does Morocco want only to manage its economy or to truly become a full-fledged economic power? Si Mehdi’s profile intrigues for another reason: his relationship to sport. An excellent triathlete, he belongs to that category for whom physical effort is not a social pastime but a way of life. That is no small detail. Triathlon is one of the sports that best reveals human character. It demands speed, power, endurance, mental toughness, the ability to manage pain and intelligence in deploying effort. Exactly what the Moroccan economy needs today: - Speed to accelerate transformations. - Power to impose reforms. - Endurance to withstand resistance. Sport also teaches another essential value: a culture of results. In sport, excuses produce nothing; only performance counts. Perhaps this is the culture Si Mehdi and Mohamed will inject into Moroccan business leadership: less rhetoric, more execution. First impressions reveal a particular dynamic between the two men. One seems to bring energy for projection, movement and mobilization; the other offers a direct, sharp temperament. In an era dominated by technological, energy and geopolitical transitions, that complementarity is a major asset. Morocco is entering an extremely tough global competition: Africa attracts every major power, industrial value chains are being recomposed, markets are shifting and traditional economic models are being challenged by AI and new forms of production. In this context, the CGEM can no longer be a mere representative body; it must become a true national strategic laboratory. Morocco today possesses rare assets: stability, modern infrastructure, an exceptional geographic position, proximity to Europe, depth in Africa and growing international credibility. But economic history also teaches that opportunities never last forever. The country must therefore accelerate. And perhaps this election comes at precisely the moment when the country needs a more offensive, more assertive, more visible and more engaged employers’ movement in the global economic battle. Success will not be measured only by reports produced or meetings held, but by a deeper question: transforming the country’s economic culture, where the financial sector remains dominated by banks, with a modest participatory segment and only 77 listed companies, even if that represents 47.1% of GDP (AfDB). Will they succeed in contributing to a Morocco where the entrepreneur is no longer suspected as a matter of principle, but recognized as a central actor of national sovereignty, employment and collective prosperity? If so, then their mandate will far exceed the bounds of a trade association.

Ouarzazate: From Logistical Isolation to a Systemic Development Emergency 6816

Aziz Daouda, 1 mon.
- Politics - Society - Business -
2.1 min read.
Tourism and film professionals in Ouarzazate have once again expressed their anger with force and clarity. This isn't the first time they've risen up like this. In contrast, citizens murmur their frustrations quietly. Even when they shout their boiling rage, their voices seem blocked by the height of the Atlas peaks. They don't reach or don't clearly reach, where they need to. Since Ouarzazate has been under the Errachidia region, authorities and elected regional bodies have focused on their own city and its immediate surroundings, relegating Ouarzazate "on the other side" to oblivion. These cries are no longer mere sectoral demands. They reveal a long-standing multidimensional structural crisis. Beyond the glaring failure of air connectivity, the most visible symptom of deep isolation, lies a fragile and incoherent territorial development model. Professionals operating in Ouarzazate tell anyone who will listen that the city's tourist and cinematic appeal is in peril. In a globalized economy, the fluidity of flows determines competitiveness. The lack of direct flights from key European and North American source markets erodes Ouarzazate's attractiveness, a local economic pillar driven by its two flagship industries: tourism and cinema. Dependence on Casablanca or Marrakech hubs breaks the value chain, while logistical unpredictability deters tour operators and international productions. Add to that, it must be said, the surprisingly weak domestic air links. This domino effect hammers the local economy. Hotels see declining occupancy, margins shrink, and recent investments lack profitability. Indirect jobs in guiding, transport, crafts, and restaurants become increasingly precarious. If tour operators bypass the destination, film productions turn to more accessible rivals. Stays shorten dramatically. Ouarzazate isn't rejected: it's circumvented, which in tourism amounts to a gradual disappearance. ### The Mining Paradox: Wealth Without Local Benefits Morocco's Southeast is rich in strategic minerals: silver, manganese, cobalt. Yet the value generated escapes the territory: - Weak local redistribution: revenues are barely reinvested in infrastructure, skilled jobs, or public services. - Enclave effect: mining sites are isolated, without economic integration. - Negative externalities: intense pressure on water resources leads to environmental degradation without compensation. - Lack of processing: exporting raw materials deprives the region of industrial value chains. Thus, the territory generates wealth without building its future, deepening a profound sense of injustice. ### Governance Challenges and Systemic Risks His Majesty King Mohammed VI has repeatedly denounced the "two-speed Morocco," highlighting serious governance failures. Yet, despite unprecedented discursive promotion, cinematic hub, gateway to the desert, Ouarzazate remains poorly integrated into a genuine unclogging strategy. Where is the coordination between transport, tourism, and territorial development? Why do intangible infrastructures (connectivity, logistics) lag behind those in other regions? Does anyone have a clear vision of Ouarzazate's role in the national economy? This glaring deficit turns huge potential into fragility. The image suffers badly: complex access for travelers, uncertainties for productions. Perception being a key asset, a silent marginalization takes hold, threatening exit from international radars: fewer tourist nights, fewer films, fewer investments, fewer jobs. A vicious circle relegates this true center of excellence to forgotten peripheries. ### Rethinking the Model: Levers for Coherent Development The challenge goes beyond the unclogging some imagine. The entire model must be rethought: - By leveraging the mining sector to fund regional development, infrastructure, and training. - By creating synergies across all sectors (mining, tourism, energy). - By ensuring equitable wealth redistribution. - By encouraging executives, especially natives or those from the region, to settle there, return, and invest. - By integrating the region into a coherent national vision. Without this, Ouarzazate will keep accumulating paradoxes: Rich in resources, poor in benefits; World-famous, locally marginalized. In the end, it's no longer just an economic and social crisis penalizing Ouarzazate and its people, but a threat to territorial cohesion and justice itself. Ouarzazate's cries aim only to raise awareness of its ignored structural crisis... Until when?

Chapter 5: Formalize & Systemize 8989

Satta Abraham, 2 mon.
A working implementation begins with a narrowly defined document type. The unit of construction is a skill, which combines input schema, feature computation, semantic rules, generation constraints, and validation logic into a single packaged pipeline. The input schema defines the structure of accepted data. Each field has a fixed type and meaning. Inputs outside this structure are rejected or normalized before processing. This step removes ambiguity at the entry point. The feature layer computes derived values from the input schema. These computations are deterministic and expressed in standard tooling such as SQL or Python. The outputs include numerical transformations, aggregations, and formatted representations. Once computed, these values are stored and reused across all downstream operations for the same input. The semantic layer maps computed features into categorical labels. These mappings are expressed as explicit rules that define thresholds and conditions. The rules function as a translation layer between raw computation and narrative intent. Changes in business definition are reflected by modifying rules rather than rewriting logic. The generation layer receives three inputs: original data, computed features, and semantic labels. It produces structured text under strict constraints. The model is restricted to expressing provided values. No additional facts are introduced. Output formats are predefined, often as structured JSON containing narrative sections. The validation layer compares generated text against deterministic outputs. It extracts numerical values, categorical claims, and references, then checks them against the feature and semantic layers. Any deviation indicates failure. Output is either accepted or routed for correction. A complete skill behaves like a compiled artifact. Input enters through a fixed interface. Output is produced in a predictable format. Internal logic remains inspectable and versioned. Once a single skill is stable, the same structure can be replicated across multiple document types. Financial reports, product summaries, operational dashboards, and compliance documents follow identical architectural patterns. Variation exists only in schema definitions, feature logic, and semantic rules. As the number of skills increases, duplication appears in semantic definitions. Terms such as “strong performance,” “declining trend,” or “high risk” recur across domains, often with subtle differences in meaning depending on context. A static rule system cannot represent these contextual variations efficiently. Each skill encodes its own version of definitions, which leads to inconsistency and maintenance overhead. A knowledge graph introduces a shared semantic layer. Concepts are represented as nodes, and relationships between them are explicitly defined. Each concept carries attributes such as context, domain, and threshold values. This allows meaning to vary based on surrounding conditions rather than fixed rule files embedded in individual skills. In this structure, a query retrieves the appropriate definition of a concept based on context parameters such as industry, market state, or organizational role. The semantic layer no longer evaluates rules directly. It resolves references into context-specific definitions drawn from the graph. Feature computation remains unchanged. Inputs are still transformed into deterministic values. The difference lies in how those values are interpreted. Instead of fixed thresholds embedded in code or configuration files, interpretation depends on graph queries that return context-aware mappings. This creates composability across systems. Multiple skills reference the same underlying semantic nodes. A change in definition propagates through the graph without modifying individual pipelines. Consistency emerges from shared structure rather than replicated configuration. The generation layer remains unchanged. It still receives features and resolved semantic labels. The difference lies upstream, where those labels are derived from a shared semantic space rather than isolated rule sets. Validation also extends naturally. Outputs can be traced not only to feature computations but also to the specific semantic definitions used during interpretation. This adds a second layer of provenance, linking each statement to both numerical derivation and contextual meaning. The system shifts from isolated pipelines to a connected network of shared meaning, where document generation becomes an application of structured knowledge rather than repeated local interpretation.

Chapter 4: Tokenomics & Failure 8979

Satta Abraham, 2 mon.
Token usage in direct generation scales with both input size and document count. When identical datasets are used repeatedly, the same information is reintroduced into prompts and reprocessed each time. This creates redundancy across runs. A staged pipeline changes this behavior by separating computation from generation. Feature computation runs once per dataset. The results are stored and reused. The generation step receives only derived values and semantic tags rather than raw input data. Let Tin represent the original input size and T'in the reduced representation produced after feature extraction. For n documents derived from the same dataset, direct generation cost scales with n⋅Tin. In the staged system, cost splits into a one-time computation cost plus n⋅Tin. As n increases, the amortized cost of preprocessing becomes negligible relative to repeated generation savings. This structure also changes verification cost. When outputs depend on raw inputs embedded inside prompts, validation requires rechecking both computation and interpretation. When outputs depend on precomputed features, verification reduces to checking alignment between text and deterministic values. This reduces the scope of manual review. A second effect concerns failure containment. In end-to-end generation, errors in reasoning, calculation, and phrasing occur in the same process, making attribution difficult. A staged pipeline isolates these responsibilities. Feature computation is deterministic and testable. Semantic classification is rule-based and auditable. Generation is constrained to express only pre-validated inputs. Validation operates as a final comparison layer between text and deterministic outputs. In practical terms, this structure prevents entire classes of errors that arise when models are allowed to both compute and express facts. Numerical inconsistencies, misapplied rules, and unsupported claims can be traced back to specific layers and eliminated without affecting unrelated parts of the system. The result is a system where cost and correctness are both controlled through separation of responsibilities rather than increased model complexity.

Chapter 3: Prior Art and Pipeline Structure 8722

Satta Abraham, 2 mon.
The problem of translating structured input into structured output has been addressed in other domains through staged processing. Compiler design separates parsing, semantic analysis, transformation, and code generation into distinct phases, each operating on well-defined representations. Natural language generation research formalized a similar sequence, separating content selection, organization, lexical choice, and surface realization. These designs isolate responsibilities and prevent later stages from altering the assumptions established earlier in the pipeline. End-to-end neural generation replaced these staged systems with a single model that maps input directly to output. This removes explicit intermediate representations and shifts all responsibilities into one probabilistic process. While this simplifies implementation, it removes the boundaries that make verification and auditing feasible. When a model both computes values and expresses them, there is no clear point at which correctness can be enforced. A staged approach restores those boundaries. Data is transformed into a set of derived values using deterministic computation. These values are then mapped to semantic categories using explicit rules. Only after these steps are complete is text generated, and the generation step is constrained to use the prepared inputs. A final validation stage compares the generated text against the deterministic outputs to detect discrepancies. This structure ensures that computation, classification, and expression are handled independently. The model is not responsible for deriving facts, only for expressing them. Each stage produces artifacts that can be inspected, tested, and reused. The framework operates as a directed sequence of transformations from input data to validated text. Each layer has a defined input and output, and data flows forward without feedback into earlier stages. The input layer accepts structured records or extracts them from unstructured sources into a predefined schema. When extraction is required, it is limited to identifying and normalizing explicit facts without inference or aggregation. The goal is to produce a stable, typed representation of the data that downstream stages can consume. The feature layer performs deterministic computation. This includes arithmetic operations, aggregations, formatting, and lookups. The implementation can use SQL, Python, or any environment that produces consistent outputs for identical inputs. Results from this layer are cacheable and reusable, since they depend only on the input data. The semantic layer applies rule-based classification to the computed features. Rules encode domain definitions such as thresholds, categories, or states. These rules are externalized as data so they can be modified without changing application code. The output of this layer is a set of labels or tags that describe the state of the input according to business logic. The generation layer receives the original inputs, computed features, and semantic tags. The prompt specifies exactly which values must be included and prohibits the introduction of additional facts. Structured output constraints restrict the format of the response. The model converts the provided values into text without performing new calculations or introducing new data. The validation layer inspects the generated text and compares it against the outputs of the feature and semantic layers. Numeric values, percentages, and categorical statements are extracted and checked for agreement. Any mismatch results in rejection or routing to review. No document proceeds without passing this reconciliation step. This sequence enforces separation between computation, interpretation, and expression. It also creates a complete lineage from each statement in the text back to a deterministic source.

Chapter 2: Why Agents, MCP, and RAG Fail for Data-to-Text 8372

Satta Abraham, 2 mon.
The current default approach to generating documents from data combines agents, multi-step prompting, and retrieval. These methods are often grouped together in practice, but they introduce the same structural issue: the model repeatedly interprets and transforms the same data without a fixed, verifiable intermediate state. Start with agent workflows. A typical setup assigns roles such as writer, reviewer, and editor. Each role operates on text produced by the previous step while also referencing the original data. The data is not processed once and stored as a stable representation; it is re-read and reinterpreted at every stage. Derived values are recomputed multiple times, sometimes with small differences. The final document depends on a chain of generated text rather than a single transformation from source data. When a number is incorrect, there is no clear point in the process where the error can be isolated, because each stage mixes interpretation with generation. Multi-chain prompting attempts to impose order by splitting the task into explicit steps within a single workflow. One step extracts information, another computes metrics, another organizes structure, and a final step generates the document. This looks closer to a pipeline, but the boundaries are not enforced. Each step still depends on the model to preserve exact values from the previous step. Intermediate outputs remain probabilistic. A value that is slightly altered during extraction will be used as input for all subsequent steps. The system accumulates small inconsistencies rather than preventing them. Retrieval-augmented generation changes how data is accessed, not how it is processed. Relevant documents or records are retrieved and inserted into the prompt. The model then reads and synthesizes them. For data-to-text tasks, this means that the model is responsible for selecting, combining, and expressing values from retrieved sources. If multiple sources contain overlapping or conflicting information, the model resolves them implicitly during generation. There is no requirement that the output match any single source exactly. Retrieval improves coverage but does not enforce consistency. These methods are often combined. A system may retrieve data, process it through multiple prompting steps, and coordinate the process with agents. The number of transformations applied to the same data increases. Each transformation introduces another opportunity for deviation. Token usage grows because the same information is processed repeatedly. The final output reflects a sequence of interpretations rather than a controlled mapping from input to output. Data-to-text generation requires a different structure. Numerical values must remain exact. Classifications must follow defined rules. Every statement must be traceable to a source. These requirements assume that data is processed once, stored in a stable form, and then used consistently throughout the pipeline. Agents, MCP, and RAG do not provide this property because they rely on iterative interpretation. They remain useful in earlier stages where the goal is to gather information, explore alternatives, or synthesize unstructured inputs. In those contexts, variation is acceptable and often necessary. Once the data is fixed and the task is to produce a document that must align exactly with that data, the process must shift to a deterministic pipeline where computation, classification, and generation are separated and verified.
bluwr.com/Chapter 2: Why Agents,...

Chapter 1: Setting The Stage- Deloitte AI Scandal 8362

Satta Abraham, 2 mon.
In December 2024, the Australian government paid Deloitte $290,000 for a report that appeared complete and professionally written but contained fabricated material throughout. Several citations referred to sources that do not exist, some quotations were attributed to judges who never made them, and multiple references pointed to academic work that cannot be found in any database. The content was generated using GPT-4o and delivered to the client without these issues being identified during internal review. The problems were later discovered by a university researcher after the report had already been submitted, which led Deloitte to issue a corrected version and return the final payment. The failure originates from how current systems handle data-to-text generation. A single prompt is expected to read structured data, compute derived values, apply classification logic, organize content, and produce readable prose while preserving exact numerical and factual accuracy. These steps require different forms of reasoning, yet they are executed inside one probabilistic generation process without separation or verification between them. The result is text that is coherent at the surface level but unreliable when examined against the underlying data. This becomes a scaling problem rather than a one-off mistake. When document production relies on this approach, teams must allocate time to verify outputs, reconcile inconsistencies, and correct numerical or factual errors. As volume increases, the cost of review grows in proportion, often offsetting the time saved during generation. Attempts to improve reliability by adding more prompts or introducing agent-based workflows tend to increase repetition of the same operations without establishing a stable mechanism for verification. The approach presented in this series replaces that structure with a defined pipeline in which data processing, classification, generation, and validation are separated into distinct stages. Each stage has a fixed role, and outputs from earlier stages are treated as immutable inputs for later ones. The model is limited to producing language from already verified inputs rather than participating in computation or decision-making about the data itself.

Renault Restructuring: Social Threat or Industrial Opportunity for Morocco? 8457

Aziz Daouda, 2 mon.
- Politics - Business -
2.4 min read.
Renault's announcement of a drastic reduction in the number of engineers fits into a global dynamic of transformation in the automotive sector. Cost pressures, the shift to electric vehicles, and the digitalization of industrial processes: these factors are pushing major manufacturers to overhaul their internal structures, particularly in engineering roles. This still amounts to nearly 25% in Renault's case. At this stage, nothing indicates that Moroccan sites, particularly the Renault Tanger plant and the Renault Casablanca plant (SOMACA), will be affected, but the hypothesis deserves serious consideration. Above all, it opens up a field of strategic reflection. What if this potential wave of released expertise represented a historic opportunity for Morocco? For several years, major automotive groups have been redirecting their investments toward high-value-added areas such as embedded software, artificial intelligence, and electric batteries. This shift mechanically reduces the need for generalist engineers while creating strong demand for specialized profiles. It's a true global transformation redefining engineering in this industry. Renault's strategic plan, particularly through its electric subsidiary Ampere, illustrates this evolution. It's not just about cutting headcounts, but redeploying skills. Morocco is no longer merely a low-cost assembly site. Over two decades, the Kingdom has built one of Africa's most performant automotive ecosystems. It has evolved from an industrial assembly workshop to an integrated platform with local integration rates exceeding 60% in certain segments, the presence of major global tier-one suppliers, competitive logistics infrastructure (Tanger Med Port), and targeted training through highly effective specialized institutes. Groups like Stellantis and Lear Corporation have strengthened this ecosystem, consolidating Morocco's position as a regional industrial hub. If workforce reductions were to impact Morocco, they would release highly qualified profiles such as process engineers, quality specialists, industrial logistics experts, and R&D applied managers. A true pool of underutilized engineers. This human capital, trained to international standards, represents a rare strategic resource. In many countries, such a concentration of skills would be immediately absorbed by a dense local industrial fabric. In Morocco, the challenge is precisely to create these outlets. The hypothesis of a Moroccan automotive brand then imposes itself, with a central point: why not turn this constraint into a lever for industrialization? Morocco today has several assets: A solvent domestic market. The Moroccan middle class, though under pressure, remains capable of supporting demand for affordable, robust vehicles adapted to local realities. A near-complete supply chain. Wiring harnesses, seats, plastic components, cabling, majority of constituent elements are already produced locally, and industrial legitimacy has been achieved. The "Made in Morocco" automotive label is no longer an abstraction. In this context, the emergence of a national brand, with models symbolically named Taroudante, Fassia, or Itto, is no longer utopian. Even if it poses several structuring challenges, such as access to financing (patient capital, sovereign or private), mastery of intellectual property, the ability to develop a competitive technical platform, and an export strategy. There are precedents from comparable emerging countries worth examining closely. Countries like these have succeeded in this gamble: Dacia in Romania, successfully relaunched (irony of history, under Renault's impetus), Tata Motors in India, or Proton in Malaysia. These examples show that a national automotive industry can emerge provided there is clear alignment between the state, private capital, and technical expertise. It's truly a matter of political and industrial will. The real question, therefore, is not technical, but strategic. Does Morocco wish to remain a performant link in a globalized value chain, or does it aspire to become a full-fledged player capable of designing, producing, and marketing its own vehicles? The answer requires a proactive industrial policy, incentives for innovation, mobilization of national capital, and above all, confidence in local skills. It's about transforming uncertainty into an ambitious national project. If Renault's restructurings were to affect Morocco, they would rightly be perceived as a social threat. But they could also become a founding moment. Because behind every potentially released engineer lies a brick of industrial sovereignty. Stacked together, these bricks can form a true edifice. Morocco today has a rare alignment: skills, infrastructure, market, international credibility. What it still lacks, perhaps, is the audacity to take the final step: moving from the world's factory to brand creator. And in a country where the collective imagination is powerful, it's no small thing to envision that one day, owning a car named Fassia, Hada, or Itto becomes more than a purchase, truly an act of adherence to a Moroccan national industrial project.

GITEX Africa in Marrakech: Showcase of Ambition or Revealer of Contradictions? 8865

Aziz Daouda, 2 mon.
- Politics - Society - Business -
2.9 min read.
In Marrakech, GITEX Africa is closing its doors amid a now-familiar buzz: thousands of exhibitors, tens of thousands of visitors, international delegations, and African startups seeking visibility. Morocco is thus displaying a clear ambition: to become a continental tech hub, or even a Euro-African platform for innovation. But behind this seductive showcase, one question arises acutely: is the country truly giving itself all the means to match its ambitions, however legitimate they may be? Morocco certainly starts with undeniable advantages. Its political stability, modern infrastructure, strategic geographic positioning, investments in telecoms and renewable energies, and the undoubtedly competitive level of its youth and universities make it a serious candidate to host Africa's digital economy. Institutions like UM6P or Technopark Maroc are contributing to the emergence of a dynamic entrepreneurial ecosystem. The talent is there. The will, surely. The ideas, too. And yet. Innovation cannot be decreed; it must be unleashed. The economy of artificial intelligence and startups rests on a fundamental principle: speed. Speed of execution, decision-making, and transactions. Yet in Morocco, this speed is often slowed, hampered. The heart of the problem lies in the paradox of wanting to build a modern digital economy while maintaining administrative logics inherited from a control economy, or one from another era. Initiative and innovation require freedom. Freedom to invest, transfer, trade, test, and often fail. The more constraints there are, the more innovation contracts. Thus, the foreign exchange lock is a structural handicap. The role of the Office des Changes is central in this equation. Designed to protect macroeconomic balances, its regulatory framework now appears out of sync with the demands of the digital age. A Moroccan entrepreneur wanting to pay for a cloud service abroad, raise international funds, sell a SaaS solution overseas, or simply test a global business model often faces delays, caps, or procedures incompatible with modern market realities. Meanwhile, their counterpart in France, London, the "Silicon Valley" of Europe, or today in Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands, major players supported by strong innovation dynamics and investments in AI and SaaS, can move and close deals much faster. Here, the new economy has found the most fertile ground. Where a startup must act in milliseconds, here it sometimes waits days, even weeks. In a world of instant competition, this lag is fatal. Let’s stay on our continent and ask why other African countries are advancing faster? It’s a disturbing question, but one worth asking without complex: why do countries, sometimes less endowed with infrastructure, attract tech and AI giants more? Ecosystems like those in Lagos, Accra, Nairobi, Mauritius, or Kigali have grasped one essential thing: in the digital economy, regulation must support, not hinder. Rwanda bets on an agile, pro-business administration. Kenya benefits from a liberated and innovative fintech ecosystem. Nigeria, despite its challenges, offers market depth and operational flexibility that seduce investors. Meanwhile, major tech players hesitate to establish a lasting presence in Morocco, despite its structural assets. The risk is becoming a showcase without substance. The danger is clear: events like GITEX Africa could become shiny vitrines disconnected from on-the-ground realities, where others come to do business and leave. A digital economy is not built through international trade shows, but through deep structural reforms. Without that, Morocco risks remaining a stopover rather than an anchor for innovation. To turn ambition into reality, several levers must be activated without delay: - Gradually liberalize the exchange regime. - Enable startups to freely open foreign currency accounts, transfer funds without administrative burdens, and operate internationally in real time. - Establish a true specific framework for tech exporting companies. - Create a “regulatory sandbox” for AI and fintech. Inspired by international models, this setup would allow startups to test innovations in a relaxed framework, under supervision, without immediately facing all regulatory constraints. A "regulatory sandbox" is a controlled testing space for technological innovations. It enables AI and fintech startups to test products in a lightened regulatory environment, supervised by authorities. This is a key concept. Drawing from models like the UK’s FCA or the EU’s AI Act, it creates a secure space where companies experiment without full authorizations and compliance upfront. Regulators oversee to assess risks, limit consumer impact, and adapt future laws. - Accelerate administrative digitalization. Drastically reduce processing times, automate authorizations, and introduce “silence means approval” logic in some cases. - Encourage international venture capital. Facilitate entry and exit for foreign investors, simplify fundraising mechanisms, and secure cross-border operations legally. - Bet on freedom as a strategic driver. This may be the most decisive point. Innovation does not thrive in a climate of suspicion or excessive control. It needs trust. Morocco stands at a crossroads. It can either continue prioritizing control, at the risk of braking its own momentum, or make a bold turn toward greater economic freedom. GITEX Africa is a tremendous opportunity. But it will be an empty symbol if not accompanied by a profound paradigm shift. In the artificial intelligence economy, presence is not enough. Competitiveness is key. The watchword: the modern economy flourishes in milliseconds, needs freedom, and does not tolerate endless administrative delays and controls. If history shows how we missed the industrial revolution, let’s not miss the digital one, as it could weigh on generations to come and thus on the country’s future.

Morocco-Egypt: Strategic Reunion or Fleeting Truce Beneath the Sands of Pragmatism? 9160

Aziz Daouda, 2 mon.
- Politics - Society - Business -
2.5 min read.
Could anyone have imagined this scene in Cairo and Rabat just a short time ago? Yet, just a few days ago, Prime Ministers Aziz Akhannouch, flanked by seven of his ministers, and Mostafa Madbouly, no less well-equipped, signed and oversaw twenty-two agreements, some more significant than others, under the flash of cameras. Official speeches celebrated a "relationship at an unprecedented level." Broad smiles fueled hopes for the long-desired rapprochement between two economic powerhouses in the MENA zone. At first glance, it looks like a grand reunion. But behind this staging, doubtless sincere, a question lingers. Is this a historic turning point or merely an opportunistic convergence driven by recent geopolitical developments? To see clearly, let's dive back into a history heavy with mistrust. As early as 1963, the Sand War saw Gamal Abdel Nasser's Egypt align with Algeria, even pushing it against Morocco, in the name of a Third World pan-Arabism that stigmatized Rabat as a "Western pawn," they chorused. They thought they were on the right side, that of the "Bolshevik revolutionaries"... The goal was obviously to destabilize the monarchy and, why not, bring it down. The debacle was unequivocal. Egypt lost feathers there... and a high-profile prisoner: Hosni Mubarak, who would later become president. Hassan II, in lordly fashion, returned him to Egypt as a magnanimous gift. Later, on the Moroccan Sahara issue, Cairo adopted a cautious but oh-so-vague ambiguity: neither support for the Polisario nor frank backing for Morocco; a tightrope walk that, in Morocco, passed for latent perfidy, especially amid triumphant embraces between Egyptians and Algerians. It was Hosni Mubarak who came begging Hassan II to release the prisoners of war that Boumédiène had lost on the ground at Amgala, with the illustrious Chengriha on the list... Egypt thus seemed to blow hot and cold on the matter. The recent summit undoubtedly marks a pivot. Twenty-two agreements signed to accelerate exchanges and elevate them to levels deemed impossible just days earlier. But the highlight of the meeting is Egypt's alignment with UN Resolution 2797, validating the Kingdom's proposed autonomy as the only viable framework. Rabat, in discreet diplomatic fashion, downplays this support as if it were a given. It's not gratis: it reflects an Arab realignment, possibly ending the ideological divides of the 1960s and prioritizing pragmatism. Iranian threats, and perhaps even Turkish ones, may well play a role. Sisi's Egypt, through this rapprochement, gains a stable ally: the Sharifian Kingdom, a truly diversified and coherent Arab counterweight in all its endeavors. Economically, however, the picture is mixed. The 2006 Agadir Agreements, already linking Morocco, Egypt, and Jordan in a free-trade zone, failed to deliver on all promises. Exchanges have grown, but remain timid due to persistent bureaucracy. Worse, a crisis erupted over cars produced in Morocco, blocked by protectionist taxes. Egypt deemed them insufficiently Moroccan, reigniting the Kingdom's frustrations. These twenty-two new commitments thus aim to rev up the engine, with cross-investments to anchor Morocco in East Africa and open doors for Egypt to the West. The key argument is clear: numbers trump grudges. That said, recent crises—not so distant—prove the situation's fragility, until proven otherwise. We must remain confident in a lasting reconciliation, even if recent popular imaginaries hold it back. Egyptian sports media, in particular, remains broadly virulent against Morocco, betraying a tenacious rivalry. Geopolitically, Algiers will react sharply, forcing Cairo into its usual ambiguity. Will Egypt bow to an Algerian diktat in the name of shared history? It's not out of the question to see Egypt dispatch an envoy to tell the Algerians what they want to hear, softening the disappointment. There are also Egypt's internal vagaries and frequent reshuffles, creating instabilities that threaten the whole. Arab history teaches that alliances are extremely volatile. Yes, a pragmatic era has indeed begun, conditioned by economic convergence beyond the Agadir Agreements. It drives regional stability and the triumph of calculation over ideology. Let's dare hope it's not an emotional reconciliation, but a certain strategic normalization, placing the past in parentheses for the service of the present and at least 150 million people. The agreements must also weather the storms of the Middle East and North Africa, forming a foundation that could seduce the rest of the region's countries toward a true economic continuum respecting the geographic and demographic one. So, Moroccans and Egyptians, appeased and confident, will listen together to Oum Kaltoum sing *Aghadan alqak*... and savor a good tea in the shade of a pyramid or the Hassan Tower...

Brain Drain and Demographic Decline: Morocco's Silent Double Penalty... 9971

Aziz Daouda, 2 mon.
- Politics - Society - Business -
2.7 min read.
Beyond the conventional rhetoric on the Kingdom's modernization and attractiveness, a more worrying reality is gradually emerging: brain drain. Long seen as a side effect of globalization, it is now becoming a structural factor in socio-economic fragility. This dynamic is taking on new proportions as a demographic transition marked by slowdown, or even contraction, of the national pool of talent takes hold. The hemorrhage is old, but it is now becoming critical. The migration of skills is not new in Morocco. For decades, engineers, doctors, researchers, or senior executives have headed to Europe, North America, or more recently, Gulf countries. The reasons are well-known: higher salaries, more attractive working conditions, greater professional recognition, more mature innovation ecosystems, advantageous taxation. In a context of strong demographic growth, this loss was partly absorbed by the continuous expansion of the base of graduates. The education system, despite its limitations, fed a sufficient flow to compensate—at least quantitatively—for the departures. But this equation is changing. The demographic transition, a turning point that cannot be underestimated, will exacerbate the situation further. Morocco has entered an advanced phase of its demographic transition. The decline in the fertility rate, which began in the 1990s, is accelerating and is accompanied by a progressive aging of the population. This phenomenon, often interpreted as a sign of modernization, actually carries profound economic implications. The working-age population, the engine of growth, is tending to stagnate and then decline. The "demographic dividend," which has long supported the country's development, is eroding. In this context, every departure of talent is no longer simply an individual loss; it becomes a systemic shortfall, difficult to compensate for. The socio-economic cost of departures is rising and will be felt more each year. This is where the heart of the problem lies: brain drain, combined with relative demographic decline, generates a cumulative and growing socio-economic cost. First, on the productive front. The loss of rare skills directly affects innovation capacity, business competitiveness, and the country's overall attractiveness. Strategic sectors, health, digital, engineering, scientific research, are the first hit. The case of Moroccan doctors practicing abroad strikingly illustrates this tension. Training a doctor represents a considerable public investment, the benefits of which are often unfortunately captured by other economies. Next, on the fiscal front. Highly qualified profiles are also those who contribute the most to tax revenues and value creation. Their departure shrinks the tax base, undermines budgetary balances, and limits public investment capacities. Finally, on the social front. The scarcity of skills exacerbates territorial and sectoral inequalities. Certain regions or public services find themselves in chronic shortage of qualified personnel, fueling a sense of abandonment and deepening internal fractures. Beyond economic indicators, brain drain leads to an erosion of the "positive externalities" associated with trained elites. An engineer, a researcher, or a doctor does not produce only individual value. They contribute to the diffusion of knowledge, the training of future generations, the emergence of innovative and sustainable ecosystems. When these actors leave the territory, an entire chain of transmission is weakened. The country loses not only skills but also development multipliers. The question is also whether having a large diaspora abroad constitutes an opportunity or merely a compensatory illusion? Faced with this reality, the diaspora argument is often put forward as a counterweight. Financial transfers from Moroccans residing abroad are indeed a significant resource. Similarly, diaspora networks can facilitate investments and know-how transfers. However, this view deserves nuance. Financial remittances, however significant, do not replace the physical presence of skills nor their daily contribution to the national economy. As for returns of experience or investments, they remain marginal compared to the scale of departures. It is therefore necessary to imagine and implement a genuine strategy for retaining and circulating talent. Faced with this double constraint, brain drain and demographic contraction, Morocco can no longer settle for partial responses. This is now a major, even urgent, strategic challenge. Several levers can be considered: - Improve working conditions and remuneration in key sectors, particularly health and research. - Deeply reform the education system to better align training with market needs and promote scientific and technical fields. - Encourage the return of skills through targeted incentives (fiscal, professional, academic). - Develop innovation ecosystems capable of retaining talent by offering career prospects and opportunities for creation. - Implement a "brain circulation" policy, favoring back-and-forth movements rather than permanent departures. What was yesterday a worrying problem is today a structural threat and therefore demands strategic urgency. In a context of progressively scarce qualified human resources, every departure counts more, every loss weighs heavier. Brain drain, combined with the demographic transition, thus constitutes a silent double penalty for Morocco. It calls for awareness on the scale of the stakes: no longer just curbing departures, but rethinking the development model in depth to make human capital, rare and precious, the heart of the national strategy. For, in the end, a country's true wealth lies neither in its natural resources nor in its infrastructure, but in the quality, creativity, and commitment of its women and men.

Morocco and the Trust Economy: The Invisible Capital of Development... 9608

Aziz Daouda, 2 mon.
- Politics - Society - Business -
2.9 min read.
In the economic history of nations, some assets are visible, such as natural resources, geographical position, infrastructure, or market size. Others, however, are invisible but often decisive. Among them, trust holds a central place and constitutes the true cement of sustainable economies. An economy can survive with few natural resources, but it cannot prosper sustainably without trust. Morocco today has many assets: remarkable political stability, a strategic position, world-class infrastructure, and active economic diplomacy. Yet, the decisive step in development now consists of building a true trust economy, capable of sustainably reassuring citizens, entrepreneurs, and investors. This is not a slogan. Trust is an institutional and cultural architecture that is built over time. It is the primary capital of a modern economy and a determining factor. It reduces transaction costs, encourages investment, facilitates innovation, and stimulates individual initiative. When an entrepreneur knows that the rules of the game are stable, that contracts will be respected, and that justice is swift and independent, he invests more easily. When a citizen trusts the tax administration and institutions, he more willingly accepts taxes and participates in the formal economy. Conversely, a lack of trust generates precautionary behaviors: capital flight, informality, low long-term investment. The economy then becomes cautious, fragmented, and inefficient. For Morocco, the central question is therefore not only to attract investments, but to create an environment where trust becomes a collective reflex. It would be unfair not to recognize the considerable progress made over the past decades. The foundations are solid. The country has massively invested in infrastructure: Tanger Med is today one of the world's most important logistics hubs. Nador and Dakhla are coming soon. Industrial zones have enabled the emergence of high-performing sectors, in the automotive industry with Renault Group and Stellantis, and in aeronautics with Boeing, Airbus, and Safran. The country's ambition in energy transition is exemplary. This shows that it is capable of carrying out structuring projects and offering a stable macroeconomic environment. However, the next step in development requires a qualitative leap: moving from an opportunity economy to a trust economy with a determining role for the rule of law. Trust first rests on the solidity of institutions. For investors as for entrepreneurs, the predictability of rules is a decisive element. Laws must be stable, readable, and applied equally, with three particularly crucial dimensions: **The independence and efficiency of justice** A swift, accessible, and credible justice system is the keystone of any trust economy. Commercial disputes must be resolved within reasonable timeframes. Judicial decisions must be enforced without ambiguity. Legal security is often the primary factor of attractiveness. **Fiscal stability** Investors do not necessarily expect very low tax rates; they primarily seek stability and readability. Predictable taxation allows companies to plan investments over the long term. Morocco has already undertaken several major tax reforms, but the challenge now is to go further and consolidate a clear and durable fiscal pact. **The fight against rents and privileges** Trust disappears when the rules of the game seem unequal. A dynamic economy relies on fair competition and equal opportunities. Transparency in public markets, competition regulation, and limiting rent situations are essential levers. A trust economy is also an economy of freedom, capable of unleashing entrepreneurial energy. The freedom to enterprise, innovate, and experiment is one of the fundamental engines of growth. Morocco has a talented youth, competent engineers, and an influential diaspora. However, several obstacles remain: administrative complexity, access to financing for SMEs, slowness of certain procedures. The challenge is to create an environment where individual initiative becomes the norm rather than the exception. Moroccan startups in fintech, artificial intelligence, or agricultural technologies already demonstrate the country's potential. With a more fluid ecosystem, they could become tomorrow's economic champions. In a world marked by geopolitical uncertainty and economic recompositions, trust also becomes a comparative advantage. If Morocco manages to position itself as a country where rules are stable, justice reliable, and administration predictable, it could become one of the main investment platforms between Europe and Africa. This ambition aligns with the Kingdom's African strategies and its growing international openness. Trust could thus become Morocco's true economic hallmark. Several strategic orientations deserve to be prioritized: - Accelerate the modernization of the judicial system, particularly in handling commercial disputes and enforcing judicial decisions. - Radically simplify administrative procedures for businesses through complete digitalization of public services. - Establish multi-year fiscal stability to enhance visibility. - Promote transparency and fair competition in all economic sectors. - Strengthen training and valorization of human capital, particularly in technological and scientific fields. - Develop a culture of trust between the State, businesses, and citizens. This dimension is often overlooked, yet it constitutes the invisible foundation of development. Morocco finds itself today at a pivotal moment in its economic history. The infrastructure is in place, strategic ambitions are affirmed, and the international environment offers new opportunities. The next step therefore consists of building a sustainable trust ecosystem. If Morocco succeeds in this gamble, and it must, it could not only accelerate its development but also become one of the most credible and attractive economies in the emerging world. In the 21st-century global economy, trust is undoubtedly the rarest and most powerful capital.

Oil Taxation, Aid Efficiency, and Social Justice: What Strategy for Morocco Facing Energy Shocks? 9386

Aziz Daouda, 3 mon.
- Politics - Business -
2.8 min read.
When the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, global energy markets were brutally disrupted. The barrel price crossed historic thresholds, triggering an immediate surge in pump prices in net importer countries like Morocco. In response, the government opted for direct aid to transporters to contain inflation and prevent pass-through to goods and services prices. However, the experience revealed its limits. Despite the subsidies, transport prices did indeed rise, pulling up the cost of all products and services in their wake. This gap between intention and reality raises a central question: how to effectively cushion an energy shock in a liberalized economy without widening inequalities or fueling rents? The decision to specifically aid transporters rested on the implicit assumption that they would act as shock absorbers, absorbing part of the increase. Yet, in a market with tight margins and fierce competition, it is economically rational for operators to pass on costs to fares, despite public support. Several factors explain this relative failure: - Lack of binding mechanisms. No strict obligation prevented pass-through to final prices. - Windfall effect. Some companies received aid without altering their pricing policy. - Targeting difficulties. Aid benefited a specific segment without ensuring a broad, lasting impact on the economy. This observation is all the more troubling since Morocco remains heavily dependent on refined product imports following the closure of the Samir refinery. Today, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are reigniting fears of a new oil shock. This maritime corridor, through which about 20% of global oil transits, is a critical chokepoint in worldwide energy supply. Any disruption sends prices soaring and, mechanically, pump prices in Morocco. States worldwide have adopted varied strategies, with mixed results: - Price caps. Effectiveness is immediate, with tariff shields on electricity and gas, sometimes paired with fuel caps. These measures contain short-term inflation at the cost of very high budgetary expense, disincentives to energy sobriety, and windfalls for the wealthiest consumers. - Direct transfers. A social but imperfect response. Some countries issued energy checks or lump-sum aid to households. Politically popular, these tools are often criticized for their inflationary nature, lack of precise targeting, and risk of fostering dependence on one-off aid. - Tax modulation, a structural lever. Several states, like Austria, Spain, Italy, or Japan, chose to temporarily cut fuel taxes to limit pump price hikes. This approach directly affects the final price paid by all consumers, without intermediaries. It relies on principles of readability and shared effort between the state and users. In Morocco's case, a significant portion of the pump price consists of taxes—such as TIC and VAT—which heavily influence the per-liter price and give the state major leverage in price formation. Temporarily reducing these taxes would establish an explicit shock-sharing mechanism between the state and citizens, rather than concentrating aid on one sector. This option offers several advantages: - Universality: it benefits everyone, from truck drivers to salaried workers using their car for commuting. - Transparency: the reduction is immediately visible at the pump, boosting trust and the readability of public action. - Economic efficiency: it directly lowers fuel costs. - Social justice: by forgoing part of the fiscal rent on a now-essential product, the state clearly shoulders its share of the effort. Targeted and temporary reduction of oil taxation thus emerges as the most effective and democratic solution to cushion an energy quake. This path is not new in Moroccan debate, as evidenced by the widespread support via the Compensation Fund, phased out from 2015 onward. Lightening fuel costs through subsidies has already been implemented without achieving the theoretically expected results. Need we remind? Any tax reduction, if enacted, cannot be unlimited or permanent but must be strictly time-bound, calibrated to budgetary capacity, and linked to broader hydrocarbon market reform (competition, margins, strategic storage, reopening or alternative to national refining capacity). In other words, tax modulation should not be a short-term reflex but the tool of a comprehensive energy security strategy. Morocco faces a strategic choice: persist with one-off aid to transporters or embrace shock-sharing via taxation. If it chooses the latter and loses short-term revenue, it will gain in social cohesion and economic predictability, with three key lessons: - Prioritize direct mechanisms via taxation, a key pump price component, as the most effective tool for rapid, universal, and democratic action. - Avoid market distortions. Targeted aid without strict controls produces opposite effects; it fuels rents without protecting the end consumer. - Think long-term. Energy issues cannot be divorced from industrial sovereignty (refining, storage) and state budgetary resilience. Beyond conjunctural management, it is a true social contract around energy that must be rethought. In a country where the car is both a work tool, a means of access to essential services, and a vector of mobility, fuel price is a deeply political issue at the intersection of social justice and budgetary sustainability. Rather than multiplying one-off devices for a single sector, Morocco would benefit from a more systemic approach based on fiscal transparency, equity, and economic efficiency. Fuel tax modulation, as a universal and immediate lever, better meets democratic demands. It is a more credible response to current shocks and those to come.

The Strategic Prudence of Gulf Monarchies: A Vital Calculus in the Face of Iran and American Uncertainties... 9108

Aziz Daouda, 3 mon.
- World Politics - Business -
2.6 min read.
The Gulf monarchies: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, or Kuwait, embody a glaring strategic vulnerability. Their shallow territorial depth and narrow demographics expose vital infrastructure: airports, ports, refineries, gas terminals, headquarters of major companies, to rapid strikes by potential enemies from the region and beyond. Iran, for instance, with its arsenal of ballistic missiles, drones, and asymmetric naval forces, coupled with the belligerent philosophy of its regime, could paralyze them in the blink of an eye. The 2019 attack on Aramco's oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais provides irrefutable proof: Saudi production had then plummeted by half. To the Saudis' surprise, the Americans remained evasive and barely retaliated, at least not in a clear and direct manner. For Riyadh, this silence was a telling signal: allies are no longer infallible. Signed agreements can remain dead letters at the whim of one party, depending of course on the interests of the moment and changing circumstances. A growing, though undeclared, distrust of Washington had then taken hold. Commitments, agreements, and promises only bind those who believe in them. Over the past two decades, trust in the United States among Gulf capitals has eroded a little more each day. The 2011 withdrawal from Iraq, the lack of a strong response after the 2019 attacks, and the Afghan chaos of 2021 have ingrained a lesson that those concerned have fully internalized: Washington disengages when the cost rises. This uncertainty thus encourages prudence in the face of open war with Tehran. It will likely be the case again today, as the specter of a long and destructive war occupies all minds. The risks of a prolonged conflict are more than probable. A direct confrontation would quickly degenerate into a prolonged regional conflict, akin to the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), which killed over a million people and ruined both belligerents. Today, the stakes would be worse: destruction of energy infrastructure, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, collapse of foreign investments, and capital flight from the area. Gulf leaders, haunted by these scenarios, prioritize stability and intelligently bow their heads. For a long time, they have chosen to prioritize economic development, a choice now put to a severe test. The monarchies have pivoted toward transforming their respective economies: Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, diversification in the UAE, Qatari global investments, and other manifestations of universal scope. This requires confidence, for it must not be forgotten that these economies fundamentally rest on trust. A prolonged war would threaten tourism, megaprojects like NEOM or smart cities. For the Gulf monarchies, the doctrine is clear: regional stability trumps ideological confrontations. This shift is embodied in the China-mediated reconciliation of 2023 between Riyadh and Tehran, aimed at reducing tensions and sparing Gulf territories, which refuse to become indirect battlefields. Today, though threatened, bombed, and provoked, the Gulf monarchies intelligently demonstrate their refusal to be dragged into a conflict they did not choose. At least for now, as everything could tip at any moment. Despite discreet security cooperations, Gulf countries refuse to be drawn into a conflict for Israel's benefit. The latter enjoys military and nuclear superiority, but Iranian retaliations strike primarily, and above all, Arab bases, economic, and civilian infrastructure. The costs fall on the Arabs, not Tel Aviv. The leaders of the countries concerned have learned the lesson. They have seen what became of Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Yemen, where proxy wars between powers left states bloodless, highlighting the fatal traps that ignition inevitably brings. In these dynamics, Morocco, a strategic ally and highly regarded voice among Gulf countries, emerges as a de-escalation actor. Under King Mohammed VI's impetus, Morocco's moderating voice advocates regional stability, diplomatic solutions, and South-South cooperation to foster political reconstruction and economic exchanges. It is in this context that one must appreciate His Majesty's permanent contacts with the sultans and emirs of the region. This is indeed a lucid calculus, as Morocco is one of the rare countries in the region to have voluntarily severed all ties with the Mullahs long ago. The prudence of Gulf states transcends mere distrust of the United States. It stems from a perspicacious calculus that factors in vulnerability to Iran, uncertain American reliability, the risk of a ruinous war, and the primacy of development. Their mantra? Avoid at all costs becoming the theater of confrontations between regional powers and distant others. This is how their reserve and refusal to retaliate impulsively must be understood. Having nerves on edge is not what's needed. However, things could change if Iran does not come to its senses and leaves a region that, even ideologically hostile, will never go so far as to attack it alone. It lacks the means without potential allies and has no interest in doing so with others' help. Such a situation would be ruinous for the entire region, including Iran, an outcome no one should wish for, apparently.

Morocco: 113 kg thrown away per person, the imperative of an anti-food waste strategy... 10412

Aziz Daouda, 3 mon.
- Politics - Society - Business -
2.4 min read.
The latest opinion, prepared by the Economic, Social, and Environmental Council (CESE) as part of a self-referral, is titled “Food Loss and Waste in Morocco: Scale of the Phenomenon and Challenges for Effective Intervention.” It analyzes the causes of this phenomenon and its repercussions at the national level, while proposing levers to sustainably transform production, distribution, and consumption patterns. The goal is to align these changes with national priorities in terms of sustainability, food sovereignty, and security. This phenomenon is global, and its impacts continue to grow. In Morocco, its scale and specific effects deserve particular attention, which is why this opinion is highly important and should not remain a dead letter. It represents a genuine theme for the next electoral campaign, provided that political parties are capable of generating ideas in this direction. On a global scale, according to the United Nations Environment Programme, the food value chain recorded a loss of about 13.2% between harvest and retail sale in 2022. Waste at the household, restaurant, and retail levels then accounted for nearly 19% of total food production. The trend is similar in Morocco. According to the 2024 Food Waste Index, Moroccan households threw away around 2.4 million tons of food in 2022, or 113 kg per person per year, compared to 91 kg in 2021. Losses and waste occur at all stages of the food value chain. In the initial phases, production, harvest, storage, and transport, certain sectors, particularly fruits, vegetables, and cereals, record losses of 20 to 40%. At later stages, waste stems from commercial practices and inadequate behaviors: excessive purchases, lack of knowledge about preservation methods, and low valorization of unsold goods. This leads to high economic and social costs. These losses impose significant burdens on producers and distributors, reduce food availability, and heighten the vulnerability of low-income populations. They also put pressure on natural resources: the CESE estimates that 6.1 billion m³ of water is mobilized annually to produce food that will never be consumed. Food waste, moreover, pollutes and contributes to greenhouse gas emissions, underscoring the urgency of greater coordination. To date, institutional responses, where they exist, remain fragmented and ineffective. Despite some public and private initiatives, actions are scattered due to the lack of a specific legal framework, an integrated national vision, and effective governance. The CESE rightly considers reducing these losses and waste a major strategic challenge, to be placed at the heart of a national strategy for sustainable food. This would strengthen food sovereignty and security, preserve resources, rationalize imports and inputs, and promote a more equitable and resilient model in the face of crises. In this context, the Council recommends a specific action plan, integrable into the national strategy, with key recommendations: - Adopt a law against food loss and waste, prohibiting the destruction of unsold goods and facilitating donations to associations, social institutions, and food banks. - Clarify consumption dates: “to be consumed by” (health safety) and “best before” (quality). - Establish multisectoral governance involving public authorities, the private sector, and civil society. - Create a national observatory to collect data, produce indicators, and propose corrective measures. - Integrate waste reduction targets into public policies, particularly for catering in hospitals, schools, social centers, and prisons. - Develop storage and transport infrastructure, such as solar-powered refrigerated warehouses in agricultural regions. - Promote short supply chains to limit intermediaries and transport losses. - Encourage recycling of surpluses, such as solidarity fridges and food donations. The fight against food loss and waste goes beyond mere resource management: it is a lever for food security, agricultural efficiency, and environmental preservation. In a context of water scarcity, climate pressures, and growing needs, this battle is imperative for a sustainable and resilient Moroccan food system. Ultimately, it will effectively curb inflation and support the national economy. This strategy has every chance of succeeding, thanks to cultural and religious factors. Waste (isrâf or tabdhîr) is religiously prohibited as a sign of ingratitude toward divine blessings. The Quran states: “Eat and drink, but do not commit excess, for Allah does not love the wasteful,” Surah al-A‘râf. The use of goods is permitted, but excess is condemned. The scale of this phenomenon in Morocco makes it an urgent political issue, requiring effective and lasting action. It could be a true program for the next executive, if it becomes aware of it.

Iran Facing the Reality Test: The End of a Regional Myth? 10955

Aziz Daouda, 3 mon.
Another major sequence of tensions in the Middle East highlights the deep fragilities of the Iranian regime. Since its advent in 1979, the Islamic Republic has built itself on a political narrative of revolutionary power in direct opposition to the "Great Satan" the USA, unwavering defender of the Palestinian cause and Jerusalem's liberation. **This ideological positioning allowed Tehran to gain relays in parts of the Arab world, particularly among movements hostile to Israel. It developed an influence strategy based on creating, funding, and arming affiliated groups: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq, support for the Syrian regime, Houthis in Yemen, forming what it presents as the "axis of resistance." It surely finances other movements in many other countries, with an unnatural connivance with Sunni Islamists. An expansion strategy with destabilizing effects.** Where Iran has extended its influence, its footprint is inseparable from increased militarization and state fragmentation. The projection relies less on state-building than on the rise of parallel politico-military networks challenging national institutions. This has certainly enabled Tehran to hold leverage over its adversaries and position itself as the champion of "resistance" to the US-dominated regional order and its allies. But it has also prolonged conflicts, weakened already fragile state institutions, and exacerbated sectarian fractures. In the long term, the human and economic cost of this "strategy" is considerable for the affected countries and for Iran itself, subjected to severe sanctions and persistent international isolation. *The Palestinian cause is in fact more instrumentalized than defended, for nearly half a century, while the Iranian regime claims it as a central pillar of its diplomacy and revolutionary legitimacy.* Tehran has forged ties with armed Palestinian actors like Hamas or Islamic Jihad, presenting them as extensions of its own "resistance." Yet it must be acknowledged that Palestinians' situation has in no way improved: rampant occupation, colonization, and blockade continue, while cycles of violence recur without credible political prospects. Palestine has lost vast territory, lives, and even sympathy within the Arab world itself. Palestinian internal divisions, locking the cause into an essentially militarized logic absent diplomatic horizons, question the real effectiveness of this posture. Like the Gamal Abdel Nasser era marked by imprudent pan-Arabism, the current period has brought no progress. Iran has, in part, supplanted certain Arab leadership on the dossier without producing tangible results for a lasting settlement—nor concrete improvements in Palestinians' lives, quite the contrary. **Beyond geopolitics, the regime faces profound internal contestation. Recent protest movements, and those triggered after Jina Mahsa Amini's death in September 2022, revealed a major fracture between part of Iranian society and its leaders. Repression, as the sole response, resulted in thousands of deaths and arrests, documented by international organizations and UN mechanisms.** The rigidity of security and ideology contrasts with the aspirations of a connected youth seeking civic and individual freedoms. Today's Iran is no longer that of 1979: society has transformed, the regime has not. The gap between revolutionary discourse, promises of social justice, and socio-economic reality: inflation, unemployment, precarity, brain drain, corruption, diplomatic isolation—fuels disillusionment that undermines state legitimacy. Morocco officially severed ties with Iran in 2018, as Tehran supported the Polisario Front via Hezbollah and its embassy in Algiers, with Algeria's backing. Rabat holds evidence of arms deliveries and Polisario cadre training. Morocco's rupture appears as a strategic decision to prevent any perception of interference in its vital interests, particularly in the Sahara. It also fits into a broader realignment of regional alliances, marked by Rabat's rapprochement with certain Gulf partners and the USA, amid growing rivalries with the Iran-Algeria axis. Recent military and diplomatic developments highlight a troubling reality for Tehran: Iran often seems to react urgently rather than master the strategic tempo. The multiplication of peripheral fronts, from Lebanon to Gaza, Iraq to Yemen, occurs as its regional relays face growing pressures, sanctions, and targeted eliminations eroding "axis of resistance" cohesion. This situation can appear as much an admission of fragility. The ease with which the USA and Israel neutralize leaders even questions state competence. That said, announcing the regime's imminent collapse would be reckless. The security apparatus remains powerful, regional influence networks active. But will the regime once again demonstrate resilience, even at the cost of increased internal violence and harsh contestation management? **The regime must be clearly distinguished from the Iranian people, caught in a vise. Heir to a millennial civilization and rich intellectual tradition, it should not be reduced to the politico-religious elite's choices. Sanctions, repression, and isolation's sufferings weigh first on ordinary citizens, including those aspiring to peaceful change and the country's reintegration into the international community.** *History teaches much in identical situations. Transitions demand lucidity, responsibility, and an inclusive vision of the future. Regional stability will not arise from ideological escalation or destruction, but from rebalancing based on law, sovereignty, collective security, cooperation, and trust, today sorely eroded.* In this troubled sequence, solidarity first goes to the region's peoples, caught in dynamics beyond them. The mullahs will sooner or later answer to history—and to a simple but decisive question: did they serve the people, or sacrifice them to a political myth that time has made increasingly hard to sustain?

Floods in Morocco: An Emergency Mastered, Lessons to Be Learned... 11300

Aziz Daouda, 4 mon.
- Politics - Society - Business -
2.5 min read.
The recent floods in Morocco have once again tested the resilience of the state and society. Faced with the sudden rise of waters, the authorities' response was remarkably comprehensive: over 180,000 citizens were quickly evacuated from at-risk areas, transported to safe locations, housed, fed, and provided medical care under conditions that earned admiration beyond our borders. In Ksar El Kébir, as in many surrounding douars and hamlets in neighboring provinces, residents have now returned home. During their absence, their homes and belongings were very well secured. This emergency phase, marked by the mobilization of security forces, civil protection, and local authorities, demonstrated that when it comes to protecting human lives, the Moroccan state knows how to act with great efficiency, remarkable speed, and unwavering humanism. Few countries in the world can rival the Kingdom in managing disasters. Now, with the emotion subsided and populations back home, it's time for assessments and accountability. The emergency was perfectly managed; the time for pinpointing responsibilities has arrived. No one can defy nature. That's a given. Extreme weather phenomena, set to multiply due to climate change, now strike with unpredictable intensity. Floods, flash floods, road or bridge collapses are not unique to Morocco. They affect the most developed countries, with the most sophisticated infrastructure. However, a legitimate question arises: do all the observed destruction stem solely from the force of nature? When recently built roads give way, when engineering structures collapse after just a few years or even months of use, when drainage systems prove manifestly undersized, it becomes essential to question the quality of technical studies, the rigor of specifications, site inspections, and the compliance of materials used. Incompetence on the part of some, shoddy work by others, or corruption by certain individuals, these three hypotheses must be examined without taboo. Technical studies may well be insufficient or outdated. Climate data has evolved. If infrastructure is designed based on old models, it becomes inherently vulnerable. Yesterday's "exceptional" floods may be tomorrow's normal ones. Sometimes, it's poor workmanship in project execution that causes problems. A bridge, a dam, or a road doesn't fail solely under water pressure; it also fails when standards are not respected, inspections are lax, or technical oversight is deficient. We cannot dismiss outright possible malfeasance and corrupt practices. This is the gravest hypothesis. When public budgets are allocated to infrastructure meant to open up areas, streamline communications, or protect populations, every dirham diverted becomes a factor of vulnerability. In a country with limited resources, squandering public funds is not just a moral failing; it becomes a direct threat to citizens' safety. Transparent investigations are therefore essential. This is not about fueling widespread suspicion or casting blame on all public or private actors. The recent mobilization proves the opposite: the state apparatus is capable of excellence and fully committing to effectively resolve grave problems. But it is precisely to preserve this credibility that serious, independent, and transparent investigations must be conducted on the damaged infrastructure. There is no doubt the administration will identify structures that degraded abnormally quickly; examine tender processes; and verify compliance with prevailing standards. It remains crucial to ensure the publication of findings and, where applicable, to sanction faults if identified and responsibilities clearly assigned. Impunity would send a disastrous message. Conversely, accountability would strengthen citizens' trust in institutions, and God knows we need it in these times. For the future, better to prevent than to cure. Floods will always happen; material damage too. But what is unacceptable is infrastructure supposed to withstand predictable floods from certain wadis collapsing due to negligence or greed. Every dirham invested in prevention must yield maximum security. In a constrained budget context, the efficiency of public spending becomes a strategic imperative. Investing in durable infrastructure, thoroughly studied, adapted to new climate realities, rigorously controlled, and shielded from corruption, is less costly than endless reconstruction after each disaster. This is a full collective responsibility. The flood episode, like the previous earthquakes in Al Hoceïma and the Haouz, showcased the best of Morocco: solidarity, mobilization, operational efficiency. The challenge now is to draw structural lessons in rigor. Protecting citizens doesn't stop at emergency evacuation. It begins much earlier—in engineering offices, tender committees, control labs, and the traceability and oversight of public contracts. The true tribute to the 180,000 evacuated citizens is not just praising their resilience, but ensuring rebuilt infrastructure meets the highest standards. Nature is powerful, but negligence and corruption are catastrophes we can—and must—prevent. One thing is already certain: no more building in flood-prone areas.

The Double Health-Demography Shock Threatening Morocco: It's Time to Act 12451

Aziz Daouda, 4 mon.
- Politics - Society - Business -
3.1 min read.
The physical and mental health status of Moroccans, combined with an accelerated demographic transition, outlines a worrying trajectory for the Kingdom's future economic, social, and strategic outlook. These issues should become the core of political programs and electoral debates, well ahead of short-term promises on employment, infrastructure, or any other generic or hollow topics. Today, nearly 59% of Moroccan adults have a body mass index in the overweight category, and 24% are already obese, almost one in four adults. In other words, the majority of the adult population lives with excess weight that could very well pave the way for an explosion of chronic diseases: diabetes, cardiovascular illnesses, cancers, all within a healthcare system already under strain. This reality mechanically translates into a continuous rise in medical expenses, a multiplication of sick leaves, and a decline in national productivity in sectors that rely on workers' physical strength and good health. To this bodily fragility is added a silent crisis in mental health: 48.9% of Moroccans aged 15 and over have experienced, are experiencing, or will experience symptoms of mental disorders, according to national surveys relayed by the Economic, Social, and Environmental Council. Depression, anxiety disorders, psychotic disorders, and suicidal behaviors now affect one in two Moroccans, in a context where specialized facilities are scarce, professionals insufficient, and stigma omnipresent. This massive psychological distress reduces learning, concentration, and innovation capacities, while undermining social cohesion by fueling addictions, violence, and withdrawal. Added to this are statistically high rates of drug and alcohol consumption. This is no longer a taboo, but a genuine topic for societal discussion and a ticking time bomb to which the country risks exposure if nothing is done to reverse the trends. Meanwhile, demography, long a strategic asset for the country, is turning into a source of vulnerability: the fertility rate has fallen to 1.97 children per woman in 2024, below the generational renewal threshold of 2.1. Over five decades, Morocco has gone from 7.2 children per woman in the 1960s to under 2 today, joining countries facing accelerated aging. In fact, nothing exceptional: this is precisely the case in all developed societies. Morocco is in full development. The proportion of youth under 15 is starting to decline, and by 2040, their number should drop from 9.76 million to 7.8 million, while older people will occupy a growing place in the age pyramid, bringing with it challenges for social coverage and pension funding. Thus, the country is heading toward a triple shock: an adult population where 59% are overweight and 24% obese, thus vulnerable to chronic diseases; a society where nearly one in two inhabitants has been or could be affected by a mental disorder; and a demography that no longer renews its generations, with a fertility rate of 1.97 signaling rapid aging. A Morocco that is less numerous, less physically robust, and more psychologically fragile will, tomorrow, face greater difficulties in producing, innovating, funding its social protection, and even ensuring its defense capabilities. If these figures do not become the foundation of party programs and thus future governments, the country will wake up in less than twenty years with a dramatic shortage of skilled labor, an army of poorly cared-for retirees, and public finances suffocated by the cumulative cost of obesity, associated diseases, and mental disorders. Political debates must stop relegating these issues to the rank of "technical files" and instead embrace them as the matrix of all economic, educational, social, and security policies. This requires an ambitious national prevention strategy: nutritional education from school onward, reduction in the supply of ultra-processed products, surtaxation of sugar-based products and sugar itself, promotion of physical activity in cities and countryside alike, early management of mental disorders in workplaces and schools, and massive development of nearby psychiatry and psychology services. Every dirham invested in body and mind health will save tens of dirhams tomorrow in hospitalizations, disabilities, lost production, and social tensions. But even a healthier Morocco will face an implacable arithmetic equation: with fertility below the replacement level, the reservoir of labor and vital productive forces will shrink progressively. The country will thus not have the luxury of letting its expensively trained talents leave or depriving itself of selected immigration, particularly student immigration. A policy to attract new immigrants, especially African, Arab, and other students, must be designed as a structuring axis of the population strategy: simplification of residency procedures, integration into the labor market, recognition of diplomas, social support. In parallel, Morocco must offer attractive return conditions to its own students trained abroad: qualified jobs, career prospects, research environments, decent remuneration, and institutional stability, to turn academic mobility into a national return on investment rather than permanent exodus. The significant remittances from Moroccans abroad are essential, but keeping these same people in Morocco would be even more productive. Billions of dirhams are invested each year in training thousands of young people who, once graduated, leave the country to contribute to other economies' wealth—even in the key and strained health sector. 700 doctors leave the country annually for several years now, while our needs are enormous. As long as obesity, mental health, demography, and brain drain remain treated as peripheral issues, Morocco risks moving backward while appearing modernized on the surface but weakened from within. It is still time to make health and human capital the compass of all public policy; tomorrow, it will be a race against the clock whose stakes we will no longer control, let alone its outcomes. This is what should form the basis of party programs and debates during the electoral campaign, which has in fact already begun in a subdued way.

Ramadan in Morocco: The Holy Month in the Mirror of Our Excesses... 11839

Aziz Daouda, 4 mon.
- Politics - Society - Business -
2.3 min read.
As Ramadan is here, Morocco shifts its rhythm and clock. Streets slow down by day and light up at night. Mosques fill up, hearts tighten around the essentials: faith, patience, solidarity, piety. *On paper, Ramadan is a month of restraint, piety, and self-focus. In economic reality, it paradoxically becomes a month of excess and waste. In fact, one must conclude with the paradox of the Moroccan table.* A few hours before iftar, markets burst with activity. Bags overflow. Baskets grow heavy. Bills do too. According to data from the High Commission for Planning, food already accounts for the largest share of Moroccan household budgets, especially for modest classes. **During Ramadan, food spending rises sharply, sometimes significantly, per consumption surveys, due to concentrated purchases over a short period and social pressure around the iftar table. Social pressure, but also pressure from the media, particularly television.Citizens are bombarded with messages promoting consumption as a marker of social success.** This translates to an 18% increase in spending. That's no small thing. It also means a sharp rise in demand for food products, not always necessities, putting upward pressure on prices. Yet, a non-negligible portion of this food sadly ends up in the trash. Levels can be alarming. Dumpsters overflow with prepared foods, cakes, pastries, bread, and other flour, butter and sugar based preparations. **According to a FAO study, this waste can reach nearly 85%.** In other words, a citizen spending 1,000 dirhams on food staples throws away the equivalent of 850 dirhams as waste. Astonishing. *Food waste in Morocco is structural, as highlighted by several FAO-backed studies. Ramadan amplifies it through multiplied dishes, domestic overproduction, impulse buys, and abundance seen as synonymous with hospitality and well-being.* The paradox is cruel: at the very moment spirituality calls for moderation, society settles into a display of abundance, in response to a silent social pressure. *Waste isn't just an economic issue. It's become cultural. Overall, a Moroccan citizen throws away about 132 kg of food per year, per a UNEP study. The FAO says 91 kg. Ramadan contributes significantly.* **The ftour or Iftar table has become a space of social representation. Failing to multiply dishes is sometimes seen as a lack of generosity, even stinginess. Chebakia, briouates, harira, multiple juices: the implicit norm demands variety. People put on airs. Ramadan's founding values take a serious hit. Sobriety is forgotten.** This pressure weighs even more on modest households, as recent years' food inflation has eroded purchasing power. When budgets are tight eleven months out of twelve, Ramadan becomes a month of disproportionate financial strain. The holy month turns into a tough budgetary equation. The media have crafted a "Ramadan spectacle." At nightfall, a near-generalized ritual begins: television. National channels concentrate their prime programming around the post-iftar slot. Light series, repetitive sitcoms, hidden cameras, family-oriented telefilms. All backed by unprecedented advertising bombardment. Ramadan has become peak advertising season. Food ads multiply, processed products invade screens, and commercial logic overshadows educational or cultural missions. The month of spirituality becomes an audience battle. Television doesn't create overconsumption alone, but it accompanies it, normalizes it, and sometimes celebrates it. Spirituality is thus put to the test. Ramadan is meant to teach hunger to better understand those who suffer from lack. Yet the contrast is striking: while some families struggle to provide essentials, others throw away surpluses. This contradiction raises questions about the responsibility of public authorities and media figures. Morocco isn't alone. In several Muslim countries, international organizations warn annually about the waste peak during the holy month. It's a recurring issue in regional public policies. But beyond the numbers, the question is moral: how to reconcile fasting and excess? How to preach restraint while practicing abundance? How to refocus the holy month? The solution isn't guilt-tripping or punitive. It's cultural. The duty today is to: - Rehabilitate simplicity in religious discourse. - Value modest tables as a sign of awareness, not poverty. - Encourage food redistribution initiatives. - Rebalance audiovisual programming with more educational, social, and spiritual content. Ramadan doesn't need to be spectacular to be intense. It doesn't need to be costly to be noble. It doesn't need to be abundant to be generous. Ultimately, the question isn't just economic. It's existential: Do we want to *live* Ramadan... or *consume* it? **Waste is unacceptable. Religion explicitly condemns it.**

April 6, 2026: The day Morocco gets a parachute against economic storms... 10873

Aziz Daouda, 4 mon.
- Politics - Business -
3 min read.
April 6, 2026, will mark a decisive turning point for the Moroccan economy: it's a new level for the country's "financial engine."It will change the way businesses manage risks and, indirectly, the daily lives of citizens. This is undoubtedly the country's most important financial reform in a long time. With officials showing little interest in explaining such news, let's do an "Economics for Dummies" version. I'm one of them. A Futures Market is a place where you sign contracts today to buy or sell later, at a price fixed in advance. Instead of buying a stock or index right away, like on the "spot" market, you commit to a future price. This protects against sudden rises or falls. It's like locking in your gas fill-up price right now for the next six months, avoiding nasty surprises. Morocco is thus adding another tool to the Casablanca Stock Exchange to stabilize the system: the first products will be futures contracts on stock indices, overseen by the AMMC, the Central Bank, and the financial ecosystem. The goal is to make the capital markets deeper, more liquid, and more resilient to external shocks. April 6 is not just a technical date. It's a structuring step for the Casablanca financial hub to modernize the capital markets and bring them closer to international standards. Risk management will improve for economic players in rates, indices, currencies, and commodities. The Stock Exchange will also attract more capital, especially foreign. The Futures Market is not a speculative gadget; it's a protection tool, a kind of umbrella that shields from storms, allowing businesses to anticipate and secure their costs or revenues. It improves visibility and investment decisions, especially in an economy like Morocco's, highly exposed to international prices and exchange rates. **Impact on the agricultural and agri-food sector:** Morocco exports products sensitive to world prices and currency fluctuations. So, a citrus exporter fearing a dollar drop can use the Futures Market to hedge risk, by tying into an index or contract that tracks that risk. Even if the dollar falls or international prices reverse, it protects part of their margin and secures revenues. This means fewer cooperative bankruptcies, more stable rural jobs, and less "sawtooth" incomes in the countryside. The textile and automotive sectors are highly sensitive to raw material prices (cotton, steel, energy) and international markets. A factory importing cotton could hedge cost increase risks via products linked to an index. An automotive plant, exposed to rising steel prices or demand shifts, can stabilize part of its margins through hedging strategies. If they better control costs, they can invest more, avoid layoffs in tough times, and keep competitive prices for consumers: clothing, vehicles, etc. In energy and mining, global price volatility is a major issue. OCP, heavily exposed to international phosphate prices, can use the Futures Market to smooth the impact of fluctuations on its results. Energy operators can better manage risks tied to electricity, fuel prices, or interest rates financing major projects: solar farms, wind farms. Better visibility fosters long-term heavy investments, thus more projects, more industrial jobs, and ultimately more stable energy costs for households. Transport, services, and tourism, pillars of the Moroccan economy, are highly dependent on international cycles, currencies, and geopolitical shocks. A hotel chain or airline can hedge part of its risks (financing costs, market indices) to stabilize accounts, boosting capacity to maintain jobs, invest in quality, and offer competitive deals for domestic and foreign tourists. The Futures Market has a huge impact on very small, small, and medium-sized enterprises (VSMEs, SMEs, MEs), which form the productive heart of the country—99.7% of Moroccan businesses generate about 38% of value added and provide nearly 74% of declared jobs. Even if, at launch, the Futures Market will mainly be reserved for institutional players and the most structured companies, it will eventually benefit VSMEs/SMEs/MEs indirectly. Better-protected, more stable large companies offer more orders to subcontractors. Banks and intermediaries can create "packaged" solutions integrating risk coverage, without the small business needing to be an expert in derivatives. If the VSME/SME/ME fabric becomes more resilient, employment gains stability. At first, individuals won't have direct access to the Futures Market. Authorities want a gradual rollout given the complexity and risks. However, citizens are at the center of the final ripple effects: more stable jobs. Prices will be more predictable with better control of raw materials, energy, and financing costs. Savings and pensions will also be better protected. Pension funds, life insurance, and mutual funds can use these instruments to hedge portfolios. For projects and infrastructure: deeper capital markets finance major works more easily, with huge ripple effects. The Moroccan citizen won't necessarily "trade futures" from their smartphone tomorrow morning, but they'll benefit from a more stable economic environment, sturdier businesses, and a financial market better armed against storms. The Futures Market is a powerful tool, but it can become risky if misunderstood or used for pure speculation. That's why authorities chose a gradual launch, starting with simple products. Access will be limited to professional players and companies able to understand risks, before broader democratization. Emphasis will be on financial education, transparency, and strengthened regulation. This is therefore not just "one more product" at the Casablanca Stock Exchange, but a change in the playing field. It equips the Moroccan economy with modern tools to better manage shocks, support investment, and ultimately protect jobs and citizens' purchasing power.

Immigration: Spain Wins, Europe Shoots Itself in the Foot... 11311

Aziz Daouda, 4 mon.
Spain under Pedro Sánchez has adopted a pro-immigration policy in stark contrast to the hardening observed in most European countries. While Europe as a whole tightens the screws on migrants and pins all its weaknesses and dysfunctions on them, Madrid bets on their integration through work, reaping in return the continent's strongest economic growth in 2025. Most European nations base their migration policies on restriction and expulsion. The European Union is even considering return hubs outside its borders to speed up deportations and more harshly punish refusals to leave, under pressure from far-right forces. Countries like Germany, France, and Italy have tightened quotas and procedures in 2025, wrongly perceiving migrants as a source of social and economic tensions. Isn't this a real long-term economic and social suicide... Pedro Sánchez, for his part, reaffirms that legal immigration is an economic asset and a demographic necessity, with migrants already making up 13% of the country's workforce. In May 2025, a reform of the foreigners' regulations expanded corridors for agriculture, construction, tech, and healthcare, fast-tracking permits for graduates and startups. At the end of January 2026, the government announced the regularization of 500,000 undocumented migrants who arrived before the end of 2025, via an expedited procedure for those without criminal records. In 2025, Spain recorded +2.8% GDP growth, twice that of the eurozone, boosted by tourism, household consumption, and falling unemployment. Foreigners drove 80% of the increase in the active population from 2022-2024, offsetting the decline in native workers. A report forecasts a continued positive impact through 2026, with +0.5 points of GDP thanks to migratory inflows. Madrid is betting on integration through employment rather than exclusion. Sánchez presents this model as a blueprint for an aging Europe, highlighting the economic rationale of managed migration. Direct consequence: Spain enjoys a full-throttle economy despite internal criticism and tensions stirred by various right-wing forces. For 2026, Spain plans to digitize permit renewals and boost industrialization with foreign talent. This isolated choice strengthens its dynamism but exposes it to internal political tensions, while sparking a continental debate on the virtues of managed immigration. In contrast, restrictive Europe is paying a heavy price for its anti-immigration choices. While Spain prospers thanks to its openness, countries that have toughened their migration policies: Germany, France, Italy, face glaring labor shortages in vital sectors: agriculture, construction, healthcare, logistics, and hospitality. These essential jobs, unattractive to nationals, remain under strain, mechanically hampering economic growth due to a lack of hands and brains. The decline in fertility worsens this demographic impasse. With rates below 1.5 children per woman in most European countries, the active population is inexorably contracting, leading to more retirees to support, fewer young people to produce and contribute. Germany, for example, forecasts a shortfall of 7 million workers by 2035, while France sees its hospitals and fields suffering from staff shortages. Result: anemic growth, around 1% in the eurozone in 2025, far from Spain's 2.8%. How to reverse the trend? Options are dwindling: forced retirement age increases, which anger unions; timid natalist incentives, ineffective in the short term; or partial automation, costly and unsuited to manual jobs. Without regulated migratory inflows, these aging nations risk stagnation that can only lead to decline. Spain thus shows the way for those who want to integrate through work to turn a constraint into an engine. In these troubled times, proponents of the "great replacement" theory, this apocalyptic vision of a submerged Europe, unfortunately find growing popular echo, fueled by fears and also by the failures of restrictive policies. Yet the facts speak for themselves: it's the refusal of managed immigration that is suffocating economies, not reasoned welcoming. In reality, the various right-wing factions and their ideologues are against certain immigration, not others; except that the countries once suppliers of workers have changed. They are richer, industrializing, and facing birth rate deficits themselves. Sánchez, isolated but visionary, is in fact openly inviting Europe to a pragmatic awakening before it's too late.

AFCON’s Transition to a Quadrennial Cycle: Between Global Prestige and Endogenous Development 11320

Imad Khater, 4 mon.
The structural landscape of African continental football is currently navigating a period of significant strategic turbulence. At the heart of the discourse lies the proposed shift of the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) from a biennial to a quadrennial frequency. This is far from a mere scheduling adjustment; it represents a profound reconfiguration of the continent’s sports political economy. This transition, oscillating between a desire for alignment with international standards and the preservation of regional specificities, raises a pivotal question: is CAF embarking on a vital modernization, or is it yielding to globalized hegemonic pressures? The Economics of Scarcity: Pursuing the "Premium" Model Proponents of a four-year cycle primarily argue through the logic of asset appreciation via scarcity. Until now, the biennial frequency—while generating consistent cash flow—has tended to dilute the competition’s symbolic and commercial prestige. By opting for an extended cycle, CAF is adopting a "premiumization" strategy modeled after the UEFA Euros or the FIFA World Cup. The Moroccan experience serves as a clear precedent: it demonstrated that top-tier infrastructure, coupled with sophisticated marketing engineering, can capture global investment far more effectively than a succession of editions with inconsistent standards. The objective is to transform a recurring event into a historical landmark, thereby driving up international broadcasting bids and attracting blue-chip commercial partners. Sports Diplomacy and Talent Emancipation The second pillar of this reform is inextricably linked to the power dynamics with European football. The biennial calendar has long been a theater of conflicting loyalties for athletes. For the continent’s elite players, departing mid-season posed a systemic risk to their physical integrity and remained a constant source of friction with their clubs. An AFCON held every four years, ideally synchronized with global summer windows, would serve as a diplomatic de-escalation tool. Players would no longer be perceived as a "liability" or an uncertainty by European scouts during transfer windows, thus bolstering their market value and securing their ascent within the global elite without scheduling impediments. The Downside: Historical Inertia and Structural Depletion However, a comprehensive analysis must account for the risks this shift poses to the continent’s internal dynamics. The Specter of Invisibility and Stalled Progression: In a biennial system, failing to qualify is merely a temporary setback. Under a quadrennial rhythm, missing a single edition condemns a nation to an eight-year absence. For a generation of talent, this often means an entire international career spent without the exposure of a major tournament. Furthermore, this slowdown freezes the record books; dominant nations see their hegemony "sanctified" by time, making it nearly impossible for emerging nations to bridge the historical gap within a human timeframe. Impact on Development and Solidarity: Historically, AFCON has functioned in Africa as a catalyst for public infrastructure projects (stadiums, roads, telecommunications). Spacing out the tournaments inevitably slows this pace of modernization. Moreover, the biennial frequency allowed CAF to redistribute vital funds more regularly to "smaller" federations. A four-year cycle risks drying up these financial flows, which are essential for the survival of grassroots football in less affluent countries, potentially widening the chasm between major nations and the rest. The Shadow of FIFA: Toward a Globalized Order In reality, this mutation aligns with a vision driven by Zurich. FIFA’s role in this transition is decisive, operating through three main levers: Calendar Harmonization: FIFA is pushing for a cycle mirrored on the European model to mitigate friction with employing clubs. Financial Substitution: Through the "FIFA Forward" program, the global body is replacing the event-based financial dependence of African federations with a direct institutional dependence. Format Diversification: Support for new competitions, such as an African Nations League, aims to fill the commercial void left by the AFCON’s spacing, maintaining the continent under permanent structural oversight. The Gamble of Qualitative Sovereignty Ultimately, the move to a four-year cycle is a bold bet on quality over quantity. While this choice may appear as a concession to European leagues and FIFA pressure, it also represents a necessary move upmarket to solidify CAF’s global credibility. However, for this revolution to succeed, Africa must transform the record-breaking revenues of a "Premium" AFCON into robust financial equalization mechanisms. The stakes are critical: ensuring that the excellence of the sporting showcase does not result in the abandonment of local foundations or the marginalization of the continent's most vulnerable footballing nations.

Europe Has Finally Chosen Rabat for the Future... 9437

Aziz Daouda, 5 mon.
The European Union (EU) adopted a common position at the end of January 2026 on the Moroccan Sahara issue, explicitly supporting the Moroccan autonomy plan under its sovereignty over these provinces. The Union formally recognizes that the Moroccan solution is realistic and definitive to the artificial Sahara dispute, formerly occupied by Spain at the expense of the Sharifian Empire. This was no surprise given the already established positions of major European powers. However, this unanimous consensus of the 27 member states marks a major diplomatic breakthrough for the Sharifian Kingdom, driven by international momentum and crowned by UN Security Council Resolution 2797 in October 2025, which explicitly calls for negotiations exclusively on the basis of the autonomy plan put forward by Morocco. This position, aligned with those of many European countries expressed separately such as France, Spain, and Germany, strengthens the international legitimacy of the Moroccan plan. It opens prospects for reinforced strategic partnerships with the Union, particularly in economic matters through increased trade agreements, and in security, amid managing migratory flows and combating terrorism threats in the Sahel region. For Rabat, this recognition consolidates the effective integration of the Sahara into the Kingdom, de facto achieved since 1976. It will inexorably accelerate investments in the country's southern provinces, fostering unprecedented inclusive development in the region: road infrastructure, the Dakhla Atlantique port, renewable energy with over 1,000 MW, and modern universities. Confident in its historical and geographical rights, backed by unassailable national unity, Morocco has not waited for this support to act. For nearly 20 years, a rigorous development strategy, including the New Development Model (NDM), has transformed the regions in question, rendering any solution other than Moroccan sovereignty obsolete. Day by day, the Kingdom's arguments have gained echo and credibility, its proposal proving just and logical. Europe, just 14 km from Morocco's northern coasts, gains diplomatic coherence and benefits from North African stability embodied by the Sharifian Kingdom. The new resolution thus facilitates major trade agreements, such as the EU-Morocco fishing agreement extended in 2024 despite ludicrous challenges. Morocco, moreover, serves as the reliable pivot that stopped over 45,000 irregular crossings in 2024, according to Frontex, unlike other countries in the region. These are extremely costly operations for the Kingdom. European gains and regional momentum are therefore consolidated here. Beyond that, the new resolution spurs inclusive North African economic integration, provided Algeria returns to the long-hoped-for pragmatism and aligns with the course of history. Nothing is less certain for the moment. The context is that Morocco is emerging as a high-performing regional hub. It is now connected to West Africa and the Sahel via its highway network and the Tiznit-Dakhla expressway, the port of Tanger Med (Africa's number one), and the deep-water port of Dakhla, nearing final completion. Its trade with the region is growing, particularly with exponentially rising exports to sub-Saharan Africa. Arab unanimity in favor of the Moroccanness of the southern provinces and the African alignment that is tending to generalize, except for a few ideological exceptions or those under the influence of millions of dollars, accelerate this continental dynamic. In contrast, Algeria is increasingly isolating itself, mocked by a global consensus rejecting its far-fetched theses. Heir to a bygone military-political regime, Algiers feeds on low-intensity conflicts to legitimize the omnipotence of an army contested by an oppressed people, stifled by repression, as evidenced by the Hirak protests crushed since 2019. Any hint of change is nipped in the bud. The art of exporting crises has reached its peak there and is now running out of steam. Sahel countries: Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, are increasingly openly criticizing Algeria's actions, seen as destabilizing through support for the Polisario, among other things. It is proven that the latter maintains more than relations with terrorist organizations plundering the region. It is in this environment that the intensification of U.S. pressure for direct Morocco-Algeria dialogue fits, a dialogue always advocated without complex by Rabat. Algiers seems to struggle to digest this European debacle, compounded by the UN resolution and the fact that Morocco was invited by President Trump to join the new Peace Council as a founding member. Algerian media, usually loquacious and venomous, maintain a deafening silence or at most a statement attributed to a Sahrawi organization of dubious existence, calling on Europe to comply with a European Court decision, for lack of room to maneuver. Growing Russo-Chinese neutrality, the retreat of Iran, whose Revolutionary Guards and proxies are now classified as terrorist organizations by the United States and this same Europe, drastically weaken Algerian theses and reduce its margins for maneuver. The Polisario, the Saharan proxy artificially maintained by Algiers and covertly supported by Iran, risks eventual moral and logistical collapse. Its representatives, who recently went to the USA thinking they were negotiators, were relegated to the rank of "thugs" after undergoing a tough interrogation, particularly on their ties to Iran's Revolutionary Guards. Algiers' berets, losing influence and facing internal tensions, consequently have nothing left to hope for without aligning with the international community. Supplying gas and oil is no longer enough to weigh in or impose oneself. Price fluctuations, the broad diversification of suppliers, and embargoes envisioned against recalcitrants turn it into a vulnerability rather than an asset. Algiers will have to understand this, and quickly. The European position on the Moroccan Sahara is the final nail in the coffin of the Algerian Trojan horse, for those who can read the geopolitical fault lines.

CAN 2025 or Morocco, an Exemplary Pan-African Showcase... 8681

Aziz Daouda, 5 mon.
The 2025 Africa Cup of Nations hosted by Morocco marks a clear break from the previous 34 editions, through the standards it imposes and the message it sends to the continent and the world. From the moment it submitted its candidacy, the Kingdom promised an exceptional edition in every respect, even boldly presenting this CAN as the best of all time. This ambition was no mere slogan: it translated into facts through unprecedented mobilization by the state, its institutions, and society. The event became a concentrate of Moroccan expertise in service to nearly the entire Africa. Morocco already had infrastructures unmatched on the continent in terms of range, capacity, and connectivity, CAN or not. Its road and rail networks are among the most developed; its airports ensure smooth connections with major continental and global capitals. Added to this is a rare network of major cities capable of hosting a top-tier international sporting event. On the strictly sporting front, the Kingdom modernized all selected stadiums and built new ones, bringing every venue to FIFA's highest standards in capacity, safety, and pitch quality. This CAN thus unveils on a grand scale a reality already known to insiders: the country boasts a robust hosting ecosystem geared toward excellence. In the background, this demonstration fits into a profound transformation underway under the reign of His Majesty King Mohammed VI. For two decades, the country has undergone all-encompassing metamorphosis: infrastructure, economy, social policies, diplomacy—nothing is overlooked. Human development is at the heart of the royal vision, and investments in stadiums, transport, accommodation, health, and education follow the same trajectory: improving citizens' quality of life while positioning the country as a central actor on the African stage. The Kingdom has tripled its GDP in 20 years—a record rarely matched on the continent. It aims to double it again in the coming decade. Hosting the CAN fits into this dynamic as a spectacular showcase of the country's logistical, technical, and human capabilities. This ambition comes with an assumed pan-African vision, based on a "win-win" partnership logic. Morocco positions itself as a driver of African integration, offering its resources and expertise. It has become the top foreign investor in West Africa and leads structuring projects like the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline, set to connect 16 countries to a reliable energy source—essential for any development. In Dakhla, the Kingdom is building the continent's largest deep-water port, designed as a strategic gateway for Sahel countries to the Atlantic. The Office Chérifien des Phosphates deploys innovative solutions for continental food sovereignty, while Moroccan banks support the modernization and structuring of financial systems in about twenty countries where many Western players have withdrawn. The CAN merely lifts the veil on this reality, showcasing to the general public what the Kingdom has been building for years. In this equation, football is not mere entertainment: it is envisioned as a true industry of the future for Africa. On a continent heading rapidly toward two billion inhabitants, mostly young, sport emerges as a major lever for both physical and mental health, employment, and local consumption. His Majesty the King's vision leverages this potential by placing youth at the center of priorities. Investing in academies, sports infrastructure, and competitions means investing in continental stability, and, by extension, global stability. Morocco, entrusted by its African peers with a leading role on migration issues, articulates this sports policy with an inclusive integration approach: Sub-Saharan nationals now represent over 70% of foreigners living in Morocco—more than 200,000 people, testifying to a will for welcome and co-building a shared destiny. In this context, CAN 2025 fully plays its role as a full-scale test for the 2030 World Cup, which Morocco will co-host with Spain and Portugal. It demonstrates the Kingdom's operational capacity to manage a major event: 52 matches over 31 days, 24 teams, heavy logistics for fan, media, and team flows. Smooth organization, modernized stadiums like Prince Moulay Abdellah, adequate hotel infrastructure, efficient transport networks, and mastered security all send positive signals to FIFA. Hosting over a million spectators without incidents bolsters the image of a country capable of delivering a successful global experience in stadiums and fan zones across all cities. Symbolically, the Atlas Lions' performances, fueled by popular enthusiasm, reinforce the idea of Morocco as a football pivot for Africa by 2030. The political dimension is no less present. Against the pull of North American or European models, this CAN embodies another form of cooperation—triangular and balanced—between Africa and Southern Europe. The joint Morocco-Spain-Portugal bid finds full-scale validation in this edition through the complementarity of the three countries: infrastructure synergies, connectivity, capacity to handle massive fan flows, cultural and linguistic diversity. The success of CAN 2025 bolsters this candidacy's credibility, showing Morocco as a reliable pillar in the trio, fully aligned with global sports organization standards. Beyond figures, audience stats, or economic impacts, the Kingdom's most precious gain remains intangible: the esteem of African peoples. The image left by this CAN in the memory of players, delegations, media, and fans will endure. The memory of a welcoming, organized, open country deeply rooted in its African identity is likely the most lasting legacy of this competition. It is on this capital of trust—built on respect, hospitality, and seriousness—that Morocco intends to build the next phase of its continental and global project, in football and beyond, of course.

Moroccan Sahara, Maghreb and Sahel: Russia's Subtle Repositioning Between Interests, Realpolitik, and New Equilibria... 10355

Aziz Daouda, 6 mon.
The recent signals sent by Russia on the Moroccan Sahara dossier are neither coincidental nor mere diplomatic wavering. On the contrary, they reflect a pragmatic repositioning, revealing the profound geostrategic recompositions sweeping through the Maghreb and the Sahel, in an international context marked by the war in Ukraine, the relative weakening of the West in Africa, and the emergence of new alliance logics. While Moroccans are occupied with the Africa Cup of Nations, which they aim to deliver as an exceptional edition for their continent, highly interesting developments are unfolding for the region's future. Moscow's refusal to authorize the participation of the Polisario, in its self-proclaimed form of the "RASD," at the latest Russia-Africa meeting constitutes a strong political act, even if it was not formalized by a thunderous official declaration. In the grammar of Russian diplomacy, this type of decision carries a message. By excluding an entity not recognized by the UN and wholly dependent on Algeria, Russia confirms its commitment to the UN framework and its refusal to legitimize fragile or instrumentalized state constructs. The Polisario did not participate in the latest ministerial meeting of the Russia-Africa Forum in Cairo on December 19-20, 2025. Moscow explicitly excluded the Polisario Front and its self-proclaimed "SADR," despite pressures from Algeria and South Africa, reserving the event for UN-recognized sovereign states. This decision aligns with Russia's consistent line, having already barred the Polisario from previous summits in Sochi and Saint Petersburg. This choice is all the more significant as it comes in a context where Moscow seeks to appear as a "responsible" actor in the eyes of African countries, concerned with stability and sovereignty. Russia's abstention at the Security Council during the latest vote on the Moroccan Sahara follows the same logic. Moscow does not explicitly support the Moroccan position but no longer opposes head-on the dossier's evolution toward a realistic political solution. This stance reflects an active neutrality, allowing Russia to preserve its historic and lucrative relations with Algeria while avoiding antagonizing a Moroccan partner that has become central in several African and Mediterranean dossiers. In Russian logic, it is not about choosing a camp but maximizing room for maneuver. Contrary to an ideological reading inherited from the Cold War, the Russo-Moroccan relationship today rests on tangible and growing economic interests, particularly in agriculture and food security with imports of cereals and exports of Moroccan agricultural products, fertilizers and phosphates, energy, as well as logistics and access to African markets. For Moscow, Morocco emerges as a credible African hub, a stable state with extensive economic and diplomatic networks in West Africa and the Sahel. In a context where Russia seeks to offset its Western isolation, Rabat offers a pragmatic entry point to the Atlantic Africa, far from the Sahelian chaos zones. Algeria remains a historic strategic ally of Russia, particularly in the military domain, with Algiers devoting several billion dollars annually to purchasing Russian armaments, making it one of the main clients of the Russian defense industry. But this relationship is now imbalanced: it remains largely one-dimensional, centered on armaments, offers Moscow no economic or logistical relays comparable to those of Morocco in sub-Saharan Africa, and is politically rigidified by a frozen ideological reading of the Saharan dossier. Moreover, Algeria has failed to capitalize diplomatically on its Russian alignment to become a credible and solid structuring actor in the Sahel, contrary to its ambitions. In the current Sahelian context, state collapse, coups d'état, terrorism, presence of mercenaries, and international rivalries, Russia now prioritizes actors capable of providing islands of stability. Morocco, through its pragmatic African policy, investments, religious and security diplomacy, appears as a balancing factor, whereas Algeria is perceived as a blocking actor on certain regional dossiers. Sahel countries no longer hesitate to openly say that Algeria is the cause of their misfortune... In this reading, the Western Sahara issue is no longer an ideological stake but a parameter of regional stability; Moscow seems to have understood that perpetuating the conflict status quo serves instability more than its own strategic interests in Africa. Contrary to a widespread idea, Russia no longer reasons in terms of "fraternal" alliances inherited from the past but in cost-benefit terms, the era of automatic support for so-called "revolutionary" movements being over. Russia is a signatory to agreements with Morocco that include the Sahara, particularly in fisheries. The Saharan dossier perfectly illustrates this shift: no recognition of the Polisario, no frontal opposition to Morocco, maintenance of ties with Algeria without granting it a diplomatic blank check. On the contrary, it confines it to a rather small-player dimension, not having helped it join the BRICS at all, quite the opposite. For the Algerian president, membership was a done deal. He received a real slap in the face, and in South Africa no less. The BRICS refused his country's accession. Russia's recent positions on Western Sahara do not constitute a spectacular rupture but a silent turning point, with steady steps, revealing a new Maghrebi-Sahelian balance. In this multi-level game, Morocco consolidates its status as a central and reliable African actor, while Algeria remains for Russia an important military partner but politically constrained. Supported by a weakened country and a regime on its deathbed, the Polisario is sinking into progressive diplomatic marginalization. It is living its last moments. True to its tradition as a realist power, Russia adjusts its positions not based on slogans but on the real dynamics of the ground, where stability, regional integration, enduring and solid economic interests, and diplomatic credibility now outweigh past ideological loyalties. It is now necessary to accept what Russia has become, it is no longer the Soviet Union. Algiers has the intellectual capacity to do so.

A Historical Triptych: How Morocco, Spain, and Portugal are Forging the Success of the 2030 World Cup 10884

Imad Khater, 6 mon.
The assignment of the 2030 FIFA World Cup hosting rights to the unprecedented trio of Morocco, Portugal, and Spain marks the opening of a new chapter in the history of international and sporting relations. The joint organization of this event confirms an unparalleled dynamic, engaging the three nations in a triangular cooperation whose efficiency will be the decisive marker of this global event's success. This trilateral partnership transcends mere logistical collaboration to become a true lever for strategic development. The question is no longer whether bilateral relations are ready, but how their integration into a strengthened trilateral framework will guarantee the success of a mega-event poised to connect, for the first time, two continents through the medium of sport. Historical ties and geographical proximity provide a fertile ground for a remarkable intensification of relations between these three partners. The announcement of their tripartite bid has, in fact, elevated the need for harmonized coordination in the logistical, economic, and security domains to the level of a strategic imperative. I. The Political and Economic Foundations of Enhanced Cooperation The alignment around the 2030 project is not fortuitous; it is rooted in deep political and economic considerations that mutualize the interests of the three countries. •⁠ ⁠The Imperative of Convergence suffers no ambivalence: Spain and Portugal, while operating within the structural framework of the European Union, recognize Morocco as an essential strategic partner, a genuine gateway and pivot to the African continent. This dynamic is not unilateral; the Kingdom is consolidating its Euro-African anchor with heightened clarity through this same alliance. The World Cup deadline, far from being a simple calendar constraint, acts as a powerful lever, forcing the acceleration—often judged too slow—of regulatory, customs, and security convergence processes among the three capitals. Crucially, the political will displayed at the highest level—symbolized by the direct monitoring of Moroccan commitments by His Majesty King Mohammed VI—stands as a decisive catalyst, ensuring the establishment of a unified and enduring policy line, even in the face of contingencies and fluctuations in political majorities within the allied states. •⁠ ⁠Mutualization of Investments and Benefits: On the economic front, the World Cup represents an unprecedented opportunity to boost trade and investment. The trilateral agreements directly influence the planning of major works: the goal is no longer to build isolated infrastructures, but integrated networks (ports, air links, potential high-speed rail connections) designed for interoperability. The harmonization of tourism offerings and incentivizing fiscal regimes for sponsors and investors is crucial to maximize shared benefits. The success of coordination in the logistical, economic, and security domains will not be merely a performance indicator; it will be the symbol of a collective capacity to manage a complex event on a transcontinental scale. II. Managing Complexities: The Challenges of Co-Development An event of this magnitude, operated by three sovereign states, naturally generates frictions and coordination challenges that require first-rate diplomatic and technical management. •⁠ ⁠The Challenge of Global Security and Integrated Transport: The primary obstacle is the creation of a unified security space for the millions of supporters on the move. This demands real-time information sharing, coordination of law enforcement agencies, and the harmonization of emergency protocols. Concurrently, the transport system must be conceived as a single network. The transit of teams and supporters between Europe and Africa must be fluid, reliable, and ecological, necessitating targeted investments in airport capacity and maritime services. •⁠ ⁠The Cultural and Civilizational Vector: Beyond sport, the World Cup is a diplomatic platform. The secondary, but fundamental, challenge is to move beyond simple technical organization to present an ideal model of intercultural coexistence. Morocco, Spain, and Portugal must invest in promoting their cross-cultural heritages, consolidating the values of peace and mutual respect. This involves qualifying national institutions not only in logistics but also in public management and global media interaction, to avoid the pitfalls of fragmented or sensationalist coverage. III. The Structuring Influence of Bilateral Agreements on Logistics The influence of existing agreements between the three countries is vital for infrastructure development. The current stage is characterized by high anticipation from the private sectors and sports observers, who are watching for the concrete acceleration of construction projects. The overall efficiency of the operation—whether considering the pre-event phase, execution during the tournament, or the post-realization legacy—rests entirely on the solidity of the triangular commitment. The transformation of infrastructures, from stadiums to training centers and reception areas, must be carried out in a spirit of normative alignment. In conclusion, the 2030 World Cup is not merely the sum of three national organizations; it is a project of strategic co-development. The strong historical relations uniting the Kingdom of Morocco, Portugal, and Spain, amplified by a constant and high-level political will, constitute the decisive element for transforming this bid into a resounding success, offering the world a precedent of successful integration between two shores.

Chapter 4: The Objectivity Pipeline- A Sequential Protocol for Execution 10812

Satta Abraham, 6 mon.
A theoretical framework, no matter how elegant, remains an intellectual curiosity unless it can be translated into a practical, repeatable protocol. The Orbits Model and the Latticework Theory converge into a disciplined, sequential, and recursive process I call ‘The Objectivity Pipeline’. This seven-stage pipeline provides the operational scaffolding to move from a nebulous, subjective problem to an objective, actionable solution. Define: Articulate the core problem, obstacle, or Wildly Important Goal (WIG) with surgical, unambiguous precision. Vague, multifaceted, or emotionally charged aims guarantee vague, conflicted outcomes. This is a pure Outer Orbit activity. Identify Variables: Catalog the key agents, forces, constraints, and measurable factors involved in the system. Move into the Middle Orbit. What are the inputs, outputs, and actors? Distinguish between independent variables (potential levers) and dependent variables (outcomes). Map Relationships: Diagram the causal, correlational, inhibitory, and influential links between the identified variables. This is the cartography of the latticework. Tools include causal loop diagrams, systems maps, influence diagrams, and process flows. The goal is to visualize the system's structure, revealing feedback loops, bottlenecks, and leverage points. Model: Construct a formal representation of the mapped system. This is the decisive leap to the Inner Orbit. The model can take many forms: a set of statistical equations, a system of differential equations, an agent-based computer simulation, a Bayesian network, or even a rigorously structured qualitative framework. The model is a simplified but functional analogue of reality, designed for manipulation and testing. Simulate: Run the model. Conduct experiments in silico. Test scenarios, stress-test assumptions under extreme conditions, and observe the range of potential outcomes the system logic produces. This stage provides a safe, low-cost environment for failure and learning before committing real-world resources. Verify: Return to the Middle Orbit. Collect new, out-of-sample empirical data—data not used to build the model—and check the model’s predictions against this observed reality. Does the world behave as the model forecasts? If not, the error is not in "reality"; it lies in an earlier stage of the pipeline. The process must recursively return to Definition, Variable Identification, Relationship Mapping, or Model Formulation for correction. Optimize: With a reasonably verified model, adjust the controllable variables within it to find the most efficient, effective, or robust path to achieve the goal defined in Stage 1. This is the stage of generating prescriptions and strategies. The Four Disciplines of Execution (4DX): The corporate strategy framework developed by McChesney, Covey, and Huling (The 4 Disciplines of Execution, 2012) is a streamlined, commercialized instantiation of the Objectivity Pipeline, designed for team-level implementation. Define: Focus on the Wildly Important Goal (WIG)—no more than one or two overwhelming priorities. Identify Variables: Differentiate between Lag Measures (the ultimate outcome metrics, like revenue or customer satisfaction) and Lead Measures (the predictive, influenceable activities that drive the lag measures, like sales calls or quality checks). Map Relationships: Create a Compelling Scoreboard that is simple, public, and visually maps, in real-time, the relationship between lead measure activity and progress toward the WIG. Model & Cadence: Establish a recurring Cadence of Accountability, a short, rhythmic meeting (e.g., weekly) where team members report on commitments, review the scoreboard, and plan new commitments. This cadence functions as a live, human-powered simulation, verification, and optimization loop, embodying stages 5-7 of the pipeline in a behavioral rhythm. The Lucas Paradox and the Anatomy of Perceived Risk: The Lucas Paradox, introduced by Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Lucas in 1990, refers to the persistent empirical observation that capital does not flow from capital-rich countries to capital-poor countries at the scale predicted by neoclassical growth theory, despite higher marginal returns to capital in poorer economies. This phenomenon is not a failure of investor rationality, nor is it primarily a behavioral anomaly. It is a failure of overly narrow models of risk and return. In its simplest form, the canonical model assumes that capital responds to differences in marginal productivity adjusted for measurable risk. Under those assumptions, capital should flow aggressively toward emerging and frontier markets. It does not. The paradox arises because the model omits structural variables that dominate realized outcomes in cross-border investment. The conventional framing treats the problem as one of portfolio optimization under uncertainty, focusing on variables such as growth rates, inflation, fiscal balance, political stability indices, and currency volatility. These variables are necessary but insufficient. Empirical research following Lucas has repeatedly shown that capital flows are far more sensitive to institutional quality, property rights enforcement, legal predictability, capital controls, sovereign credibility, and the risk of expropriation than to marginal productivity alone. Once these variables are incorporated, much of the paradox dissolves. A latticework-consistent approach does not redefine the problem as “exploiting irrational fear.” It reframes it as identifying structural wedges between theoretical returns and realizable returns. The relevant distinction is not between perceived and actual risk in a behavioral sense, but between modeled risk and true system risk, much of which is institutional, legal, and political rather than financial. A pipeline-compliant analysis therefore proceeds differently. It defines the problem as understanding why expected returns fail to materialize when capital is deployed across jurisdictions. It expands the variable set to include enforceability of contracts, durability of political coalitions, susceptibility to policy reversal, credibility of monetary and fiscal regimes, depth of domestic financial markets, and exposure to global liquidity cycles. It models the interaction between these variables, recognizing that risk is not additive but multiplicative. Weak institutions amplify shocks, truncate upside, and skew return distributions through tail events rather than through mean variance alone. Failing to be conscientious in pursuing objectivity using pipeline steps can have severe consequences at a global level making it an approach valid for consideration and study.

Sports performance Vs Players market value 9666

Reda_Laraichi, 6 mon.
- Technology - Business - Sports -
1.3 min read.
🌍⚽ Reflecting on my participation as a panelist at MedDays 2025, hosted by the Amadeus Institute I had the opportunity to speak on the theme: “Beyond the pitch: football as a vector of development,” analyzing the key drivers that are transforming Moroccan football into a continental model for Africa. 🇲🇦 1. A transformation driven by a royal vision since 2008 Morocco’s victory at the U20 World Cup is no coincidence. It is the direct result of a long-term strategy built around: - the vision of His Majesty King Mohammed VI - the launch of the Mohammed VI Football Academy - massive nationwide infrastructure plan - the Evosport Morocco model for professionalizing youth development - methodological continuity from U15 → U20 - and the decisive work of the Royal Moroccan Football Federation (FRMF) since the appointment of Fouzi Lekjaa. 🏆 2. Morocco U20 vs Argentina: a sporting… and economic victory 🇲🇦 Morocco U20 squad value: €11M 🇦🇷 Argentina U20 squad value: €62M ➡️ Despite a 6x difference in market value, Morocco dominated Argentina and won the World Cup. Yet: only 13% of our players exceed €1M in valuation. In the Botola, no player is valued above €1,000,000 while the average market value of players in Argentina’s domestic league is €2M (and €4M for Argentinians playing abroad). 👉 Our performances far exceed our market valuation. For those interested in going deeper, I am sharing below (in the link) a data-driven comparative analysis on U20 talent valuation. 📊 3. DATA: the next strategic frontier To close the valuation gap, Morocco must accelerate its data structuring efforts. In this context, innovative Moroccan solutions are emerging and leading the way, such as Reborn, developed by Youssef MAAROUFI and Fayçal Amine Louryagli, recently awarded in the NBA Africa Start-up Program—a strong signal that local innovation can reinforce our digital transformation. Special mention to Fayçal Bouchafra (Evosport Morocco) for his continued support. 💹 4. Agents & access to top leagues The world’s biggest clubs rely on a small and trusted circle of top-tier agents. Without direct access to these networks, sporting performance alone is not enough to trigger major transfers. 5) Key message delivered at MedDays: The U20 World Cup proves that Morocco is not underperforming—it is undervalued. The next battle is no longer sporting; it is economic. Producing champions is no longer enough: we must now convert performance into long-term market value for our clubs, our league, and the entire Moroccan football ecosystem.
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The 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (CAN) vs FIFA: Should Africa Always Settle for a Secondary Role? 9542

Aziz Daouda, 6 mon.
Just days before the kickoff of la CAN 2025 au Maroc, a FIFA decision reignites an old debate: the real consideration given to African competitions within the global football structure. By reducing the mandatory release period for African players by European clubs to à cinq jours seulement, the world football governing body again seems to favor those same clubs… to the detriment of African national teams. This measure, seemingly technical at first glance, speaks volumes about the implicit hierarchy in world football and the true place FIFA continues to reserve for the African continent. How can a major competition like la CAN, a flagship event in African football, watched by hundreds of millions, and an important economic, social, and political driver in the region, be seriously prepared with only cinq jours de rassemblement? No team, anywhere in the world or on any continent, can build tactical cohesion, assimilate game plans, develop automatisms, or even physically recover in such a short time. It is therefore legitimate to ask: - Is this a rational measure? - Or a decision that trivializes la CAN, as if this competition deserves neither respect nor optimal conditions? - Or could it be structural discrimination against Africa? But the fundamental question remains the same. It is not new: is world football truly equal? The decision on player release is only the visible part of a larger system, where les compétitions et les équipes africaines are structurally disadvantaged. Take FIFA rankings as an example, which determine the pot placements for major competition draws. Points depend on the level of opponents faced. A team playing mainly in Africa will mechanically face lower-ranked teams, thus earning fewer points, even when winning. Conversely, a European team, with higher-ranked opponents, gains more points even with similar results. This system maintains a cercle fermé: the best ranked stay at the top, the lower ones remain stuck at the bottom. Where then is the promised meritocracy? The ranking openly dictates the World Cup path. The recent decision to guarantee that the quatre meilleures équipes mondiales do not meet before the 2026 World Cup semi-finals is a major turning point. This means the already biased ranking now plays a crucial role in the very structure of the competition. We have even seen the draw master, probably connected by earpiece to a decision-maker, place teams in groups without explaining why… This openly protects the giants and locks others into a calculated destiny. It is a logic of preserving the powerful, typical of a system where sport, apparently universal, bows to economic and media imperatives of major markets. This raises the question: is FIFA an institution funded… by those it marginalizes? A paradox emerges: - States, especially in developing countries, are the primary investors in football: infrastructure, academies, stadiums, subsidies, competitions. La CAN est une affaire de ces États. - National football, notably the World Cup between nations, is FIFA’s most lucrative product. - The emotion, history, and prestige of football largely come from the nations, not clubs. - Yet, it is les clubs européens, entités privées ou associations who seem to dictate the conditions. African federations, essential contributors of the global talent pool, players, skills, audiences, and emerging markets, find their room to maneuver much reduced. Is Africa highly valued as a supplier of talents, but not as a decision-making actor? This situation echoes a well-known pattern on the continent: Produce raw material, but let value-added happen elsewhere. In football as in the global economy, Africa trains, supplies, feeds, but often remains spectator when it comes to governance, revenues, interests, or influence. Instead of being seen as a strategic pillar of the global calendar, La CAN is treated as a logistical complication, even though a continental competition cannot progress if constantly relegated to second place. Football in certain regions only advances through regional and continental competitions. These form objectives for most teams and are sometimes the only visibility opportunity for some nations. Again, this raises the question: is world football truly democratized? FIFA presents itself as an inclusive house, guarantor of equity, solidarity, and development. In theory, yes. In practice, the scales tip heavily to one side. Recent decisions reveal an organization focused on protecting the immediate interests of football’s economic powers, mainly in Europe, to the detriment of sporting fairness. So, should we keep pretending? Should Africa be content to applaud, stay silent, and provide its players like a product in the global market? Isn’t the time ripe for une affirmation africaine? The 2025 CAN, organized in Morocco, with all the effort and resources invested, could become a turning point. Morocco’s dedication deserves respect. It demonstrates that the continent has the means, modern infrastructure, massive audiences, and world-class talent, but lacks recognition and du poids dans les décisions. It is time that FIFA treats African competitions with the respect they deserve. Not out of charity or rhetoric, but out of justice, coherence, and because world football cannot continue ignoring a continent that remains one of its main human and cultural engines. Africa is undoubtedly proud to be part of FIFA, but the strapontin no longer suits it. Africans themselves no longer tolerate the contempt.

FIFA World Cup 2026: risk of a tournament reserved for the wealthiest? An unprecedented inflation... 9075

Aziz Daouda, 7 mon.
The 2026 World Cup, jointly organized by the **États-Unis, le Canada et le Mexique**, promises to be an extraordinary event: an expanded format with 48 teams, 104 matches, state-of-the-art facilities, and what is expected to be the most massive media coverage in sports history. However, as initial details about ticketing and logistical costs emerge, growing concern is palpable among fans: **the North American World Cup could become the most expensive World Cup ever organized**, to the point of calling into question the very accessibility of the event. At the heart of this concern is the American model of *dynamic pricing*, a system where prices are never fixed. They fluctuate according to demand, the volume of online requests, the status of the match, and even algorithmic parameters beyond the consumer’s control. For example, a hotel room normally priced around 200 USD might not be offered for less than 500 or even 600 USD, probably more for late bookers. This mechanism, common in American professional sports, could turn World Cup ticket purchases into a frenzied and even unfair race. Some final tickets are already priced between $5,000 and $20,000, a completely unprecedented level. Group stage tickets could see daily price swings, making financial planning nearly impossible for foreign fans. American supporters, already used to high prices in the NBA, NFL, or MLB, seem better equipped to navigate this system. Conversely, for Moroccan, Brazilian, Senegalese, Egyptian, or Indonesian fans, this model represents an almost insurmountable barrier. Adding to this cloudy scenario is the question of the official resale platform: **FIFA Official Ticket Resale Platform**. Ideally, it prevents black-market sales and secures transactions. But in a market dominated by speculative logic, it could become a playground for actors seeking to maximize profits, especially since FIFA takes a commission. FIFA has not yet communicated safeguards it plans to implement. Without strict regulation, resale could amplify price volatility, particularly for highly sought-after matches: final rounds, games involving teams with strong diasporas, as well as the opening match and final. One of the most puzzling aspects of this World Cup is the early sale of tickets without specific match assignments. In the USA, out of the **6 millions de billets prévus**, nearly **2 millions ont déjà trouvé preneur**, while buyers do not yet know which matches they paid for. This reflects several dynamics: - Total confidence from the American public in the event's organization; - The high purchasing power of an audience willing to invest heavily in sports experiences; - A structural asymmetry between American supporters and international fans, the latter compelled to wait for match assignments to plan trips and budgets. This situation fuels fears that stadiums will be largely filled with local spectators, to the detriment of fans supporting their teams from abroad. The USA ranks among the world’s most expensive hotel markets, and the selected cities are no exception: **New York, Los Angeles, Miami, Seattle, Dallas ou encore San Francisco** regularly top lists of the priciest destinations. A genuine inflation is expected across the hotel sector. During major sporting events, room prices can double or triple. For a month-long World Cup, projections are even more alarming: some operators are already talking about "prices never seen before." Fans should expect: - Massive hikes in hotel prices; - Predictable saturation of alternative accommodations; - Very high internal transport costs, since distances between host cities often require air travel. All these factors raise a central question: who will the 2026 World Cup really serve? The 250 million registered football players worldwide may feel somewhat frustrated. Their sport is slipping away. The North American model, dominated by commercial logic and speculative mechanisms, seems incompatible with football’s tradition as a popular sport. We might witness the emergence of a two-speed World Cup: - A premium World Cup, largely attended by North American audiences and wealthier supporters; - A remote World Cup for millions of international fans who must content themselves with televised broadcasts due to insufficient means to attend. For supporters from countries where median income is far lower than in the United States, be they African, Latin American, Asian, or even European nations, the experience could become inaccessible. FIFA clearly faces a strategic dilemma. Sooner or later, it will have to address this issue. Certainly, the choice of the United States guarantees top-level infrastructure, record revenues, a colossal advertising market, and a logistics organization of rare reliability. But this financial logic could directly contradict football’s social and symbolic mission: to bring people together, unite, and include. If the 2026 World Cup turns into an elitist event, it risks leaving a lasting negative impression in public opinion. Modern football, already criticized for its commercial drift, could face increased pushback from fans—the very fans who keep the sport alive—especially as FIFA’s revenues rise from $7.5 billion to $13 billion. The World Cup is thus under tension. In 2026, it will likely be spectacular both sportingly and organizationally. But it could also mark a turning point in World Cup history: when the event stops being a popular and accessible gathering and turns into a premium product for a privileged audience. Between ticket inflation, skyrocketing hotel prices, logistical distances, and the American economic model, the real risk exists that this edition will go down as the most exclusive, most expensive, and least accessible. FIFA, the organizers, and host cities will have to find ways to mitigate this dynamic to preserve football’s very essence: a universal sport that belongs to everyone. Could the proximity between Gianni Infantino and Donald Trump, even their friendship, help in any way?

Morocco Faces Its Sports Challenge: From Leisure to National Powerhouse... 8858

Aziz Daouda, 7 mon.
- Business - Health - Sports -
3 min read.
Long confined to mere popular entertainment, used as a political communication tool, or dismissed as a socially useless activity, Moroccan sport is now emerging as an essential economic, social, and health driver. Under the spotlight of CAN 2025 and the 2030 World Cup, the Kingdom must fully embrace this potential. No room for half-measures, the sector already carries significant weight. Sport currently generates 1.56% of national GDP, equivalent to over 21 billion dirhams. This is just the beginning: reaching the symbolic 3% threshold, as estimated by the World Bank, could eventually position it to rival economic heavyweights like agribusiness or tourism, which it already boosts. The sector is buzzing with activity. Sales of sports goods have surged to 3.77 billion dirhams, while clubs and fitness centers report a 25% revenue increase, reaching 604 million. Professional football, capturing 12% of sports jobs, weighs in at 879 million dirhams. Moroccan sport is no longer just leisure; it is a full-fledged emerging economy. On the global stage, football is a major engine: valued at 59 billion dollars in 2025, FIFA anticipates record revenues of 11 billion for the 2023–2026 cycle. Morocco has every interest in riding this global wave, and it is doing so effectively. Major projects, from construction to jobs, contribute to this new revenue stream. CAN 2025 and the 2030 World Cup are more than sports events. They represent a powerful lever for investment and transformation. The three host countries: Morocco, Spain, Portugal, will mobilize 15 to 20 billion dollars, with 50 to 60 billion dirhams for Morocco alone, which is not just catching up but surpassing its partners. Renovated stadiums, roads, hotel infrastructure, and transport: these projects should create 70,000 to 120,000 direct and indirect jobs. Sports tourism adds to this, already a strong driver generating 2 billion dirhams from iconic events like golf tournaments, the Marathon des Sables, or Atlas trails. But physical activity and sport are more than that, they are healing investments. Beyond the economy, investing in physical activity and sport is crucial for public health. According to the WHO, every dollar invested in physical activity yields three dollars in medical cost savings. Europe estimates that a 10% increase in practitioners saves 0.6% of GDP in healthcare costs. In Morocco, where 59% of the population is overweight and 24% suffer from obesity, and 48.9% of Moroccans experience a mental disorder at least once in their lives, physical activity could reverse these health trends. It reduces premature mortality by 30%, type 2 diabetes by 40%, depression by 30%, while boosting productivity by 6 to 9%. Physical activity and sport are the best free medicine. They heal before illness even appears. Thus, sport is not just pleasure: it is a powerful, sustainable public health lever. What better way to channel the overflowing energy of youth? Sport is also the school of life and citizenship. Studies show athletic students score 0.4 points higher on average, gain 13% in concentration, and reduce stress by 20%. Yet, only 22% of young Moroccans engage in regular physical activity, despite a potential exceeding 6 million. Children tend to swap the ball for screens. The risk is high: without strong policies, a fragile generation is being prepared. The Kingdom already invests significantly in sports for all, especially by providing youth with free outdoor facilities, but much remains to be done. Here is a corrected and improved version of your text: The legislative framework is clearly misaligned with ambitions. Law 30-09, governing sport in Morocco, is criticized for excessive centralization, administrative burdens, and lack of autonomy for clubs and federations. It fails to clearly define concepts, creating real legal ambiguity. More than ever, it would be wise to move toward a new law that implements and respects the provisions of the 2011 constitution; a more incentive-based law that clearly defines concepts and thus responsibilities, correcting all the flaws of the previous one—and there are many. It would also be urgent to remove sport from political timelines and entrust it to a mission-oriented administration whose tasks, strategies, and pace adapt to sports time, which is much longer, and align with international sports timelines. Morocco's Royal Sports Federations capture no more than 350,000 licensees for a potential of 6 to 7 million. Clubs struggle to professionalize, private investors are lukewarm, and mass participation remains proportionally neglected. To accelerate growth, it will likely be necessary to lighten taxation with reduced VAT on equipment and subscriptions, ease burdens for sports startups, and officially recognize sport as an activity of public utility. The 2026 Finance Bill precisely provides for adjustments to promote public-private partnerships and boost private investment. The next decade could mark a historic turning point in the country's development. By 2030, Morocco has chosen sport as a national pillar. With prestigious international competitions, modern infrastructure, and energetic youth, Morocco holds all the cards to make sport a pillar of sustainable development. But this requires a paradigm shift: sport is not just a spectacle or image tool; it is an economic sector, a culture to promote, and a public policy to build. Morocco now has the opportunity to make sport a major vector of prosperity, health, employment, and social cohesion. This is the choice made: to take sport out of the leisure framework and fully integrate it into a national strategy. Sport is not a luxury. It is a collective investment in health, employment, and national unity. The message is clear: by 2030, Morocco must shine not only through its teams but also through its ambitious vision of sport as a lever for human and economic development.