South African elections: change or continuity? 2089
It's a fact: the ANC lost badly in the 2024 elections, unlike all the previous ones in which it held sway without any notable rivalry.
Memory rent and populism with a taste for fighting against all sorts of chimeras, promises that were never kept, were no longer enough to win over the masses and get them to vote for those who today are more likely to be held responsible for what many South Africans feel is a betrayal.
The results today confirm the debacle of the party in power since Mandela.
Ramaphosa's ANC is still the country's leading party, but it has been heavily punished, with just 40% of the vote. That's a dry loss of 17 points compared with the 2019 elections.
The latter already heralded today's debacle.
For the South Africans. The results of the 2019 elections were already a kind of alarm bell... But it was not enough for the expected wake-up call, for the realisation that something had to change.
As a result, this year's South African legislative elections will go down in the country's political annals, with some interpreting the results as the expression of a fed-up with the political system imposed since 1994 by the ANC.
The results obtained today would require a cohabitation, which is rather unprecedented, as the ANC has governed without sharing power since 1994.
The question is, with whom will this coalition be formed?
Many are inclined to think that it will be with Zuma; a multi-recidivist who has been convicted many times, he has managed to regain control and revive those nostalgic for the struggle, namely the ANC's armed wing... Umkhonto we Sizwe... known as MK. This ‘new party’ managed to glean 14.9% of the vote, putting it in third place.
If it were to join the ANC, this would in fact give the same party, with these two factions, a comfortable majority of just over 55%, a score quite close to that of the ANC in 2019, which was some 57%.
If this coalition is formed, South Africa will not have changed and the ANC will have five years in which to either reform the country and get it back on track, or to bog it down further in economic and social problems. The separatists in the Cape region who believe that the country cannot be saved would have more opportunity to make their voices heard.
The ruling party's corruption scandals, most recently that of the former Speaker of the National Assembly, Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, have certainly had an impact, but not to the extent of bringing about radical change.
Jacob Zuma, who was president from 2009 to 2018 and was found guilty, is now back through the window with the support of the ANC's armed wing... This shows that part of society is not sensitive to scandal and votes on the basis of allegiance rather than morality when it comes to the exercise of power.
Cyril Ramaphosa, the outgoing president, is fairly certain, according to his own words, of obtaining a majority, as he finds it hard to see all the opposition parties getting on the same side and denying the ANC a majority. In other words, nothing will change in practice.
The question then is whether this new coalition situation will find the right answers to the question of endemic unemployment, for example?
The turnout of around 60% of the 27 million people called to the polls is almost the lowest since the beginning of the rainbow country's current political experiment. This is another indication of the disenchantment between the 62 million inhabitants and their political model, which no longer reassures them about their future. The flight of capital to neighbouring countries is a strong indication of this disenchantment.
The next few days are likely to bring their share of surprises, but will they be enough to really surprise?
Here are the final results of these elections
• ANC 40.18,
• Democratic Alliance (DA) 21.82
• Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) 14.59
• Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) 9.49
• Inkhata Freedom Party (IFP) 3.86
• Patriotic Alliance (PA) 2.06
• Freedom Front (VF) 1.36
• ActionSA 1.18
• African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) 0.60
• United Democratic Movement (UDM) .049
You will have noticed that three of the 10 parties that obtained votes have the word freedom in their names and that three claims to be democrats... This says a lot about the expectations of the South African people and their dreams.
In any case, these elections will have an impact on the history of the country and will have repercussions on the whole continent. South Africa is currently the second largest economy in Africa.
