A Major Geopolitical Transformation in the Middle East 7905
The Middle East is undergoing a major geopolitical transformation, marked by a strategic realignment between Israel, the United States, and the Gulf powers. These latter, long marginalized from traditional alliances or subjected to them, are now asserting themselves as indispensable actors on the political, economic, and military stage, reshaping balances once considered historic and immutable.
Since its creation in 1948, Israel has been the main Western ally in the Middle East, notably of the United States, which initially opposed its establishment, in a region marked by recurring conflicts. Its expansionist and influential policies, supported by Washington, have long crystallized tensions with several Arab countries and armed groups. However, this belligerent stance now seems contested, both by its neighbors and some of its traditional allies. In any case, it is widely disapproved of and even condemned by civil society everywhere. This cannot last.
The most notable evolution in the region has come from the Gulf monarchies. After decades of hostility, they initiated a historic rapprochement with Israel, formalized by the Abraham Accords in 2020, under American impetus. These accords, signed notably by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, opened the way to strengthened cooperation, especially against Iranian influence, while fostering unprecedented economic and technological exchanges. The monarchies that did not sign these accords also have no qualms about dealing with Israel. Strong relations are also often mentioned between the Israeli state and Turkey, especially since it has been governed by Erdogan, a champion of Islamism.
In this rapidly changing context, the United States has gradually reoriented its regional policy, focusing more on the Gulf monarchies, which offer political stability, financial power, and strategic positioning. The American military presence in the region, notably at the Al-Udeid base in Qatar, illustrates this new reality. During the 2025 American tour of the Middle East, nearly two trillion dollars in investments were announced, particularly in defense, technology, and artificial intelligence sectors.
At the same time, Washington seems to adopt a more nuanced stance towards Israel, especially in the framework of negotiations with Iran, reflecting a diversification of regional alliances. Despite its military weight, Israel is gradually losing its exclusive influence, increasingly perceived as a source of tension. The current policies of Netanyahu’s cabinet, leading to a near-genocide in Gaza, do not help matters.
Unlike previous decades, Arab countries, especially those in the Gulf, no longer systematically respond to Israeli provocations with force. Current leaders favor a pragmatic approach, now distinguishing the Palestinian cause from the actions of armed groups like Hamas. This evolution marks a turning point compared to the belligerent attitudes of past military regimes, which over time became de facto allies of the Zionist cause. Hassan II, a visionary, once said on this subject, "Hatred of Israel and the Jew is the most powerful aphrodisiac in the Arab-Muslim world."
The Gulf monarchies, long proponents of a moderate discourse favorable to dialogue, are now imposing themselves as regional models of stability and cooperation with the West, as well as with Asian powers.
Israel’s traditional role as the pivot of Western interests in the Middle East seems to be eroding in favor of a dynamic where Gulf monarchies take center stage. The multiplication of conflicts and the perception of an increasingly isolated Israel on the international stage—albeit mostly among populations—weakens its position.
Europe, while hesitant, shows a hardening of tone towards Israeli actions, notably after recent incidents in the West Bank where diplomats were targeted by heavy fire from the Israeli army. This change in attitude can only strengthen the legitimacy of the Gulf monarchies as reliable partners for the West, as guarantors of regional stability and calm.
The recent organization of a global conference on the Palestinian issue in Morocco, a signatory of the Abraham Accords and co-chaired by the Netherlands, illustrates this new dynamic. It is worth noting again that Morocco is a strategic ally of the Gulf monarchies, linked by multiple agreements, including defense. The words of Moroccan Foreign Minister Nacer Bourita are clear about the need to condemn all extremisms—implicitly Hamas extremism but also that of the current Israeli government. This discourse symbolizes hope for political renewal in the region, emphasizing respect for international law and the only possible solution: two states living side by side. This is also the position of France, whose president no longer hesitates to speak of recognizing the Palestinian state, making it a key element in his discussions during his many foreign visits. Addicted to blood and violence, Netanyahu no longer hesitates to accuse President Macron of crusading against the Jewish state. Excuse me? The Israeli leader is deeply wounded and has no plausible argument except to hide behind his own definition of antisemitism, which he throws around indiscriminately. It must be said that repeated American vetoes at the Security Council somewhat reinforce his delusion.
Israel’s disproportionate reaction following the senseless Hamas attacks has become counterproductive for the Jewish state. As it seems to lose its role as the undisputed leader of Western interests in the region, the Gulf monarchies appear as the new stabilizers and promoters of peace in the Middle East. This geopolitical reshuffling could well redefine the balance of power in a region marked by incessant conflicts. The strong interconnection of the American economy with these countries, in light of the latest announced investments, will inscribe this emerging situation in a stable and likely lasting perspective. Israeli voters would do well to understand this quickly. At the next election, they should definitively rid themselves of these zealots who have only death on their lips and the extermination of a legitimate people as their goal.
