Venezuela after Maduro: Democratic Transition or New Imbroglio?
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Whether one agrees with Donald Trump or not, the fall of Nicolás Maduro marks a historic turning point in Venezuelan history and, more broadly, in the history of the region and the world. After more than a decade of authoritarian governance, economic collapse, and mass exile, Maduro's capture appears both as a relief for part of the population and as a shock to the international legal order. The arrest of the president, or the suspect, depending on one's perspective, who was exfiltrated and then indicted in the USA for narcotrafficking and corruption, thus concentrates hopes for political transition and accusations of imperialist interference.
Venezuela, despite possessing the world's largest proven oil reserves, has experienced a rapid degradation of its democratic institutions since the beginnings of the Bolivarian Revolution. First under Hugo Chávez, then under Maduro, the country has seen its economy crumble, with recurrent hyperinflation, collapse of the national currency, and widespread impoverishment. From 2014 onward, the crisis turned into a full-blown humanitarian catastrophe: shortages of medicines, collapse of public services, and endemic insecurity.
The human dimension of this crisis is equally dramatic: nearly eight million Venezuelans have left the country over the past decade, fleeing hunger, repression, and lack of prospects. Internally, political opponents have been marginalized, judicial independence undermined, and fundamental freedoms curtailed, to the point that many international organizations describe it as an authoritarian regime or hybrid dictatorship. Chavismo has morphed into a corrupt oligarchy, capturing oil rents for the benefit of a politico-military elite and criminal networks, a model far from unique.
The Trump administration, back in power with an uncompromising discourse against regimes labeled "socialist" or "narco-states," has gradually hardened its strategy toward Caracas. For several years, Washington has multiplied pressures: heavy economic sanctions targeting the national oil company, financial restrictions, naval blockade, and designation of Maduro's inner circle as a transnational criminal organization. Officially, these measures aimed to choke the regime's resources, particularly oil revenues and narcotrafficking flows.
In January 2026, this maximum pressure strategy reaches its peak with an operation of exceptional magnitude. Targeted strikes and a special operation coordinated by the United States Southern Command result in Maduro's capture in his bed, followed by his transfer out of Venezuelan territory. President Trump himself publicly announces that Maduro and his wife have been arrested and will be tried in the USA for narcotrafficking, corruption, and participation in an alleged cartel designated as a terrorist organization. In the aftermath, Trump promises that the United States will guarantee a "safe and orderly" political transition for Venezuela, even going so far as to mention the possibility of "managing" the country until credible elections are organized.
This military intervention immediately triggered a cascade of contrasting reactions, revealing deep polarization both domestically and internationally. For its supporters, the operation is a form of liberation: it ends a regime accused of repressing its people, rigging elections, and diverting the country's wealth to politico-mafia networks. Part of the Venezuelan opposition, whether in exile or still on the ground, presents Maduro's capture as a historic opportunity to rebuild democratic institutions and revive a bloodless economy.
For its detractors, on the other hand, the U.S. intervention constitutes a flagrant violation of Venezuelan sovereignty and international law, particularly the principle of non-use of force enshrined in the UN Charter. Some Latin American and European governments, as well as UN spokespeople, have denounced a unilateral U.S. operation and warned against a dangerous precedent legitimizing similar actions elsewhere in the world. Even within the Venezuelan opposition, some actors fear that the end of internal authoritarianism might open the door to a lasting external tutelage, further exacerbating the divide between pro- and anti-intervention factions.
Beyond moral or legal justifications, the geopolitical and energy dimensions are central to understanding the initiative. Venezuela holds considerable but low-quality oil reserves that actors like China and Russia have sought to secure through long-term agreements, massive loans, and equity stakes. This increased presence of rival powers at the gates of the United States runs counter to the old Monroe Doctrine and fuels, on the American side, the perception of a strategic challenge in what Washington considers its "backyard."
From this perspective, the intervention cannot be read solely through the prism of human rights or solidarity with the Venezuelan people. Washington also seeks to regain control of the region, reduce Moscow and Beijing's influence in Latin America amid heightened global rivalry. This ambivalence, between rhetoric of democratic liberation and strategic interests, fuels mistrust, particularly in the Global South.
Whatever one's opinion of the U.S. intervention, one point remains central: no lasting political transition can succeed without the full adhesion and active participation of the entire Venezuelan people. The end of the Maduro era opens a window of opportunity to rebuild democratic institutions, restore the rule of law, guarantee freedom of expression, and revive the economy, but this window can close quickly if the transition is led solely by external actors. Recent examples from Iraq, Libya, and Syria confirm this.
True liberation will not come solely from the fall of a leader, however authoritarian, nor from the promises of a foreign power, however influential. It will depend on an inclusive political process capable of bringing together a deeply fractured society, preventing score-settling, and avoiding the emergence of a new system of dependency, whether economic, security-related, or diplomatic. It is up to the Venezuelans to define, over the long term, the contours of their future, if possible with international support based on law, cooperation, and respect for their sovereignty. The position of the military also warrants close scrutiny.
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Venezuela after Maduro: Democratic Transition or New Imbroglio?
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