Think Forward.

International Politics

by Aziz Daouda
81380
Chapters: 10 30.3 min read

4: Trump this and Trump that: a thousand beat waltz 9609

Aziz Daouda, 10 mon.
The world is in an uproar as President Trump's releases come thick and fast. Trump here, Trump there. The United States seems increasingly narrow to him, so he wants to conquer Greenland and announces his intention to buy Gaza and turn it into an Eldorado, but he doesn't say for whom, just as he doesn't say from whom he wants to buy the little strip at the bottom of the Mediterranean. It wants to expel the citizens who are there and force others to take them in. He's not thinking about the imbalances he's going to cause in the region, or the human tragedy of depriving a people of their land. No problem, he's rich, he's got the biggest army in the world, even though it has lost every war it has fought, but he thinks he can afford everything. If he was widely elected, he forgets that it was only the Americans who voted for him and not the rest of the world. But isn't all this prevarication an admission of impotence rather than power? There's a distinction to be made between strength and power. They are not the same thing. You can be powerful even if you're not strong, just as you can be strong and not powerful. Power is first and foremost gained through the consideration that others will give you and show you. When Trump wants to tax products from abroad, he argues that he wants to protect his country's economy. Let's face it. But isn't that a clear statement about the powerlessness of this economy to stand up to the rising powers and those who can produce better, more and cheaper? This is not the first time that the USA has reached this point. It's not the first time that the US has reneged on its commitments, and it's not the first time that, powerless in the face of a rising economy, it has taxed and re-taxed. While Trump is talking about 10% or 25%, his grandfather Ronald Reagan taxed Japanese products by 100%. And yes, it's worth remembering that Japan was indeed an ally of the USA. After benefiting from the economic windfall of the Second World War, American industry failed to take the plunge into innovation and lagged behind in many areas. While the USA has outstripped the rest of the world head and shoulders in technology, the fruit of the work of university researchers from all over the world taking advantage of a system that is unique in the world, it has not managed to keep the automotive, textile and even aeronautics industries competitive. Today, for example, Boeing is losing money in sectors where Airbus, for example, is still making a lot. Who dresses Americans these days, if not the Chinese, and who transports them, if not the Japanese and increasingly the Chinese? The average American cannot afford to buy many home-made products. They are prohibitively expensive. In any case, the taxes imposed by Reagan did not have the desired effect and were quietly abandoned. The world is right to wonder about what lies ahead, and indeed what lies ahead for all of us. Trump's decisions and announcements are having a huge impact on us, both morally and financially. It's not for nothing that Wall Street is swaying and waltzing... Financiers are even more worried than they were less than a month ago, i.e. before 20 January. Today, what is the value of international law and the practices to which we are accustomed with the UN? Yes, the thing doesn't serve much purpose, but it is still the repository of a certain morality and certain values, and the states respect them all the same, except for one, which has never respected any of the Security Council's resolutions. It is this state that has today dropped the most bombs per square kilometre on a civilian population in history, with total impunity, apart from a few verbiage here and there. And who supplied these tonnes and tonnes of explosives, sophisticated detonators, munitions and technologies of death? No need to answer the question. Everyone knows. Attacking civilians is manifest impotence and cowardice, and to celebrate this at the White House is astonishing. Strange all the same for the President who promised peace and justice everywhere. In any case, the world is stunned and does not know where to turn. The Canadians and Mexicans have been given a month to respond to their threats to retaliate, and the Chinese have also announced their intention to tax. Will Trump backtrack definitively or will he find a solution? Some even believe that these announcements are merely trial balloons to position himself in future negotiations... Isn't the announcement concerning Gaza being made just to encourage the Qataris and Emiratis to finance reconstruction and Saudi Arabia to finance it too, but also to establish relations with Israel, the genocidal state? Saudi Arabia will have enough leverage to resist and obtain more, i.e. a Palestinian state. When will President Trump's thousand-beat waltz come to an end and we return to a normal rhythm of life?

5: Trump, like a Roman emperor... 8231

Aziz Daouda, 1 y.
During his campaign, candidate Donald Trump was hosted by Joe ROGAN in his famous Podcast, which is now more powerful than al large part of the mainstream media combined. That's where Trump confided the most, and that's where you have to go to understand his projected policies, both internally and externally. On this occasion, Trump said, in essence, “I'll be a dictator for a day, and the rest of the time, I'll be a Democrat”. By which he meant that, once installed in the 75.8 m2 office facing the White House Rose Garden, he would sign a lot of “Presidential Orders”. He's no stranger to this. He signed 53 in 10 months only during his first term. Presidential Orders are the decrees that a U.S. President can issue without reference to Congress. Although the procedure is not enshrined in the Constitution, it has always been used. As far back as 1793, George Washington used it to impose neutrality of the country in the conflict between France and England. It was under Franklin in 1862 that the procedure seems to have become a permanent fixture. Franklin D. Roosevelt is the president who holds the record, signing 3,700 of them. This didn't bother Americans too much, who trusted their president to get them out of the crisis and keep the country out of bankruptcy. More recently, George W. Bush signed 291 Presidential Orders. Congress remains in control of the situation, however, when it comes to funding and therefore the budget. For Trump, this won't be a problem. His loyalists have a majority in both chambers and are unlikely to encounter any difficulties. On January 20, he will show his devotion to the USA and put his commitments into practice, if only in part, by signing a multitude of documents of all kinds. Some of these will reach people's wallets the very next day. Like a true team captain, he will offer the people gathered around him ink pens from prestigious brand. Last time, there were as many pens as signed sheets. Trump has made it clear that he intends to put an end to wars and does not intend to wage or allow new ones. He also said he wanted to cut certain government bills, including those for the army. He was well aware that the great empires had all collapsed when their military spending had exceeded all comprehension. For him, the country spends too much on war and on the army. Will he really weigh in against the might of the Pentagon and its hidden motives. He's going to sack it boss. Buoyed by the swell in his favor in the recent elections, he intends to use this major advantage to rapidly influence the course of events. In his economic approach, his first priority will be to reduce the trade deficit. The Americans have a trade deficit with all the world's major economies: US$275 billion with China, US$152 billion with Mexico, US$72 billion with Japan and so on. A huge and rather unhealthy deficit. In alcohols and spirit beveradges alone, the deficit is 15 billion. He also wants to regain control of oil and gas production, and will heavily promote the exploitation of bituminous shist. He couldn't care less about the Paris agreements. He intends to reinvigorate certain industries, including the automobile industry, once the flagship of the American economy. To do this, he will need labor, which is increasingly scarce in the USA. While apparently opposed to immigration, he does have a solution. In short, he doesn't want any more stowaways, random intruders or those from the famous lottery. He advocates immigration based on skills and the country's needs. The president is convinced that this is the way the make this famous 'America first' a reality. Trump no longer wants to meddle in the affairs of other countries, but will nevertheless indirectly impact their economic policies through the introduction of rather high taxes on imports. And he's rather selective. His first target is China. He plans to apply chineese a rate of 60%. Mexico, on the other hand, will bear the brunt. A rate of 200% would be applied to the electric cars it exports to the USA. The Latin American neighbor has encouraged the establishment of Chinese companies manufacturing electric cars on its soil. These cars are then introduced into the USA under the NAFTA agreements signed in 1994 with Canada and Mexico. For the rest of the world, according to the customer, the rates would be from 10 to 20%. Another provision is also likely to disrupt the course of events: the 100% customs tax he wants to impose on imports from countries that do not use the US dollar in their international transactions. The BRIX is directly targeted. If Trump says he doesn't want a new war, now he's likely to declare a good one on a lot of countries at the same time. An all-out war. The very serious Centre d'Etudes Prospectives d'Informations Internationales -CEPII- estimates, for example, that these measures could lead to a fall in world GDP of around 0.5%. This is not insignificant given the rates achieved in almost all countries, barring exceptional cases. All countries exporting to the USA would so be affected. On the face of it, these measures will make it possible to relocate certain productive sectors to the USA, but with which workers, while at the same time he intends to expel almost 13 million people whom he and his followers consider to be too many on American soil. However, deportation is no easy task, and is likely to be very costly for the state whose money he claims to be defending. The operation would cost the American taxpayer some US$315 billion. In fact, what he would save or take with one hand, he may lose it with the other. It also remains to be seen how the American housewife will react. While the vast majority of them have punished the Democrats for inflation, all the measures mentioned above, and others still proposed, are likely to increase the cost of living. The average American who has become accustomed to paying USD15 for a shirt made in China is likely to have to pay more than USD20 for the same article...and that's not why he voted for Trump. In any case, the two months that separate us from the nomination of the 47th President of the USA are not going to be easy for the whole world. Economists and politicians are hard at work, calculators in hand. Both of them. There's no doubt that some of them are already preparing their response to the planned measures. The USA is not what it was fifteen or twenty years ago. It has lost much of its superb economic hegemony, and Trump may well learn this the hard way, or not. He'll still sign a bunch of Presidential Orders with his own hand on January 20, 2025, savoring his great triumph like a Roman emperor...

6: President Trump's first decions Part 1 8919

Aziz Daouda, 11 mon.
On the very evening of his inauguration on 20 January 2025, President Donald Trump signed no fewer than 77 executive orders, as promised. Many of the decisions simply repealed those of his predecessor and the policies of the opposing camp. In this way, he is laying the foundations for his future policies as he had announced them. Here is a list of the ‘President acts’ he signed in a truly revanchist staging. Part 1: 1. Repeal of 78 decrees issued by the Biden administration: cancellation of measures to reduce the price of certain medicines, anti-discrimination programmes and sanctions against certain settlers in the West Bank. 2. Declaration of a national emergency on the Mexican border: Authorisation for the deployment of US troops to reinforce border security. 3. Withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement: marks a break with international environmental commitments. 4. Withdrawal of the United States from the World Health Organisation (WHO): a halt to collaboration with the WHO. 5. Presidential pardon for more than 1,500 people involved in the riot of 6 January 2021: Pardons granted to supporters involved in the assault on the Capitol. 6. Suspension of telework for federal employees: Encouragement to return to face-to-face work. 7. Declaring a national energy emergency: Increasing oil and gas production, withdrawing subsidies for electric vehicles and abandoning the Paris Agreement. 8. Official recognition of two biological genders: Limiting diversity and inclusion policies, recognising only male and female genders. 9. Designation of drug cartels as terrorist organisations: Tougher measures against the cartels and increased sanctions. 10. Extension of deadline for TikTok: Temporary suspension of the ban on TikTok, allowing a further 75 days to comply with US regulations. 11. End of diversity, equity and inclusion programmes in government agencies: Elimination of initiatives aimed at promoting diversity within federal institutions. 12. Creation of the Foreign Revenue Service: Establishment of a new agency responsible for collecting tariffs and customs duties. 13. Renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America: Symbolic change of name to assert American sovereignty. 14. The name Mount McKinley was reinstated for Denali: the traditional name for the mountain in Alaska was restored. 15. Federal hiring freeze: Suspension of new federal government hiring, with the exception of national security positions. 16. Revocation of the electric vehicle mandate: Cancellation of the obligation to transition to electric vehicles. 17. Ending citizenship by birthright: Eliminating the automatic acquisition of citizenship for children born on U.S. soil to foreign parents. 18. Reinstatement of military personnel discharged for vaccine non-compliance: Reinstatement of members of the armed forces discharged for refusing vaccination, with retroactive payment. 19. Prohibiting government censorship: Implementing measures to protect free speech and prevent the suppression of political speech. 20. Creation of the Department of Government Efficiency: Appointment of Elon Musk to head a new department tasked with reducing waste and improving the efficiency of federal agencies. 21. Withdrawal of sanctions against Israeli settlers in the West Bank: Cancellation of punitive measures against Israeli settlements. 22. Reinstatement of Cuba on the list of state sponsors of terrorism: Reinstatement of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, leading to economic sanctions. 23. Relocation of the headquarters of the United States Space Command to Alabama: Relocation of the Space Command headquarters to Huntsville, Alabama. 24. Implementation of Schedule F: Reduced job protections for thousands of federal employees, making it easier to lay them off. 25. Reassessment of foreign aid: Reduction or elimination of funding to countries deemed hostile to US interests or not supporting US initiatives in international organisations, with priority given to strategic allies. 26. Prohibition of critical race education programmes: Withdrawal of funding for schools promoting critical race theory. 27. Expansion of oil and gas drilling: Authorisation of new permits for extraction in protected areas. 28. Cancellation of subsidies for renewable energies: Abolition of tax incentives for wind and solar power. 29. Creation of a commission on electoral fraud: Launch of a national enquiry into electoral irregularities in 2020. 30. Suspension of visas for citizens of several Middle Eastern countries: Reintroduction of a modified ‘Muslim Ban’. 31. Reinstatement of the ‘stay in Mexico’ policy: asylum seekers must wait in Mexico while their case is processed. 32. Ending federal funding for sanctuary cities: Eliminating subsidies for jurisdictions that protect illegal immigrants. 33. Increased import taxes on Chinese products: Tariffs will be strengthened to protect US industries. 34. Protecting historic monuments: Prohibiting the destruction or removal of federal statues. 35. Encouraging Made in the USA: Strengthening local sourcing requirements for government agencies. 36. Reducing union rights for federal employees: Limiting collective bargaining in the civil service. 37. Removing limits on political donations: Easing restrictions on campaign financing. 38. Proclaiming Energy Freedom Day: A national celebration of America's oil and gas industries. 39. Creating a fund for victims of crime: Increasing resources for victims of crime, particularly those perpetrated by illegal immigrants. 40. Eliminate federal transgender bathroom standards: Reinstate laws defining bathrooms by biological sex.

7: President Trump's first decisions. Part 2 8835

Aziz Daouda, 11 mon.
On the very evening of his inauguration on 20 January 2025, President Donald Trump signed no fewer than 77 executive orders, as promised. Many of the decisions simply repealed those of his predecessor and the policies of the opposing camp. In this way, he is laying the foundations for his future policies as he had announced them. Here is the list of ‘President acts’ that he signed in a truly revanchist staging. Part 2: 41. Strengthening controls at the northern border: Expansion of security measures with Canada. 42. Evaluating social media practices: Launching a commission to examine censorship of conservative views. 43. Obamacare repeal: Another attempt to completely dismantle the Affordable Care Act. 44. Revoking public housing rules: Removing requirements for residential areas to accept subsidized housing. 45. Banning public-private partnerships with China: Blocking Chinese investment in US critical infrastructure. 46. Restoring federal executions: Reactivating executions for convicted federal criminals. 47. Cancellation of restrictions on firearms: Revocation of federal laws limiting the possession of semi-automatic weapons. 48. End subsidies to companies supporting progressive causes: Reducing tax credits for climate and inclusion initiatives. 49. Promoting the celebration of Christmas in schools: Requiring public schools to recognize and promote Christian traditions. 50. Relaxing pollution rules for large industries: Reducing emissions standards to boost industrial competitiveness. 51. Recognition of Christian institutions in federal funding: Priority to faith-based schools for educational grants. 52. Increased budget for law enforcement: Increased funding for the police and federal security departments. 53. Reopening Guantanamo: Reactivating the detention center for suspected foreign terrorists. 54. Strengthening sanctions against Iran: Returning to the strictest economic sanctions against Tehran. 55. Priority funding for rural infrastructure: Directing public funds towards rural communities rather than large cities. 56. Creating a technological wall with drones and cameras: Deploying advanced technology to monitor the southern border. 57. Revision of refugee quotas: Significant reduction in the annual number of refugees accepted. 58. End of UN funding for climate projects: Suspension of US contributions to international climate initiatives. 59. Promoting charter schools: Increasing funding for independent schools. 60. Implementing a national civic literacy program: Creating a program to teach American values and history in public schools. 61. Restoring religious rights in businesses: Allowing businesses to refuse certain services on the basis of religious beliefs. 62. Reducing restrictions imposed on banks by the Dodd-Frank Act. 63. Increasing the military budget: Increasing funding for equipment modernization and military cyber security. 64. Abolish work visas for foreigners in certain industries: Reduce legal immigration in favor of domestic employment. 65. Reinstatement of economic sanctions against North Korea: Stricter measures to limit the financial resources of the North Korean regime. 66. Funding infrastructure for the army: Prioritization of funds to improve military bases and military housing. 67. Suspension of funding for family planning: Abolition of subsidies for abortion-related services. 68. Promoting public-private partnerships in infrastructure: Encouraging private investment to modernize roads, bridges and airports. 69. Creation of a national database on migrants: Centralizing information on migrants to facilitate monitoring and national security. 70. Declaring a ‘National Patriotic Day’: Establishing a public holiday to celebrate American values. 71. Restricting the activities of international NGOs: Reducing funding for organizations promoting progressive ideals abroad. 72. End of scientific cooperation with China: Suspension of academic and technological exchanges with Chinese institutions. 73. Expansion of vocational training programs: Increased funding for apprenticeships and technical schools. 74. Supervision of Big Tech practices: Reinforcement of regulations on data collection and algorithmic transparency. 75. Reinstate Confederate monuments as National Historic Landmarks: Restore and preserve controversial monuments. 76. Repealing restrictions on oil companies in the Arctic: Reopening drilling in polar areas. 77. Promoting academic freedom: Prohibiting universities from penalizing students who do not meet their academic standards

8: Congratulations Mr Donald Trump, 47th President of the United States of America 7398

Aziz Daouda, 1 y.
Trump is now the 47th President of the USA, after having been the 45th. It's a new and interesting development. During his first term, he broke with what the world had become accustomed to from the USA. He even went so far as to make contact with Kim Jong-Un, supreme leader of Pyongyang and of more than 26 million North Koreans. His relationship with Putin was marked by respect, and China was able to trade with him without ideological difficulties. His philosophy is basic: USA first. Anything that serves his country's interests is welcome. In his mind, there are no allies, only economic rivals, not even the Europeans. NATO is a heavy burden for him, and defending anyone is none of his business. He'll say to the Europeans, you want NATO to defend you, pay up. European leaders, intervening in scattered order, came begging for his blessing and protection, to no avail. All they got was disdain, if not humiliation. Merkel and Macron know all about it. World leaders, Europeans and others stayed up late on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, and watched helplessly as the USA's most atypical president was re-elected. The man who turned all North American electoral habits on their head. Many of them had a headache, a very bad one indeed. Most of them had secretly hoped for Kamala's election in the hope of a political and strategic continuum, that of the Democrats, embodied by Biden. They will be jostling to offer their congratulations: Congratulations Mr. President. Trump knocked out Kamala and his $2.8 billion campaign fund, while he, despite Elon Musk's boundless support, didn't raise more than $1.8 billion. Kamala's forced and cartoonish smile wasn't enough. Having never lost an election in her life, she didn't even have the courage to address her supporters on the election night. Kamala couldn't shake off Biden's tainted image. It has stuck to her. The economic success of his mandate wasn't enough; neither was the $1,000 billion invested in infrastructure. American housewives, young executives and blue-collar workers alike held him responsible for the decline in their purchasing power, and let Kamala know it at the ballot box. It's not totally untrue. The inflation that has raged around the world is largely due to the Russo-Ukrainian war, which the Biden administration has kept going with its generous arms and ammunition aid to the man who went straight from a TV series to a presidential mandate in a country that is, to say the least, bizarre since it broke away from the USSR. Wasn't there room for negotiation, particularly if we had revived the Minsk agreements, signed under the aegis of the Europeans, led by Germany and with the blessing of the Americans? That's all Putin wanted. The tensions stirred up with China also helped in this inflationary crisis that impacted the whole world, with catastrophic consequences for small economies and the 8 billion people on earth. Kamala paid for this, but also for the fact that her words were confusing and that, instead of presenting a plan for the future of Americans, she merely dug her own grave, getting bogged down in the rhetoric that Trump deftly lured her into. Her advisors and communicators failed to grasp the trick. On January 20, just after the pleasure of celebrating Christmas and New Year's Eve; victorious, Trump will deliver his sermon. Between now and then, he'll be fine-tuning his plans and putting together a team of loyal followers. He doesn't want to relive the first term and its defections from his team. And he'll be a strong 47th President of the USA, unopposed in the US Congress, his party having won a majority in both houses. The Supreme Court will also be his. He'll have the upper hand. There's more in the world than only Europe and China, or India and Russia, there's also Africa. In his previous term of office, he didn't even look at it. Biden, on the other hand, paid attention to what was happening on the black continent, and to the growing intrusion of Russia, India, Turkey and, above all, China. He saw this as a threat to American interests and began to act to counter it. He accused his rivals of exploiting African resources without fair compensation. He called for greater justice in a partnership that respected the dignity of Africans. Biden will even organize a U.S.-Africa summit and shake hands with African leaders as no U.S. president before him has done. Not even Kenya's Obama. Joe made Kenya a strategic partner and received the Kenyan president on a state visit, a privilege no African leader had enjoyed for over forty years. He spoke of integrating Africa into the global market, facilitating the mobilization of capital to finance major projects. 55 billion will be mobilized for this purpose. Among other projects, the Lobito Corridor railroad line will be financed, integrating Angola with its Benguela line and linking it with Zambia and the DRC. Africans and Europeans alike have legitimate questions about the place Donald Trump will reserve for them in his foreign policy, especially his economic policy. Many were undoubtedly hoping to take advantage of Kamala's skin color and her origins... But that's not knowing the mentality of Americans of all origins. The ones who should be worried are the Palestinians. Trump is all about Israel. After all, he's the president who moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. No president before him had the courage to do so. Netanyahu must have followed the American elections closely and slept very well that night. Despite his unconditional support, Trump will seek to restore peace in the Middle East. Does he seek to impose a lasting solution: probably. He would like history to remember that. But at what cost to the Palestinians? The consequences of October 7 are likely to harm them in more ways than one. In Trump's mind, they'll make up for it. In any case, the day after the election, the price of oil fell drastically and the dollar recovered. For Moroccans, Trump is adored. This is the American president who solemnly recognized the legitimacy of the Cherifian Kingdom's sovereignty over its southern provinces, and who will no doubt speed things up even further. As for our friend Zelenski, there's a good chance that the play will be over for him this time.

9: Between Deals and Geopolitics: Trump Snubs Israel and Bets on the Gulf Monarchies 7476

Aziz Daouda, 7 mon.
On May 13, 2025, Donald Trump began the first major international tour of his second term. Instead of stopping in Jerusalem, a symbol of the strong alliance between the United States and Israel, the president chose to visit only the three Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Israel, a neighboring and long-standing partner, was not included. This decision represents a significant change in American diplomacy and could reshape regional dynamics. It raises the question: is this simply an economic strategy or a deeper geopolitical shift? In Riyadh, the focus was clearly on business. Saudi Arabia announced an unprecedented investment of $600 billion in the American economy, with plans to increase it to $1 trillion over four years. The sectors involved include defense, energy, technology, infrastructure, and especially weaponry, which may cause discomfort for Israel. The U.S. military orders amount to $142 billion, reflecting the priority to secure America’s economic future through strong partnerships with the Gulf monarchies, which aim to be seen as more than just oil producers. Saudi Arabia is a major global economic player and even influenced the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Syria. In Doha, Qatar signed historic agreements worth nearly $1.2 trillion, including the sale of Boeing planes and GE Aerospace engines to Qatar Airways. Qatar also gifted Trump a plane valued at nearly half a billion dollars. The United Arab Emirates committed to investing $1.4 trillion over ten years in the American economy, focusing on artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure. At each stop, investment forums brought together leading figures from Silicon Valley and Wall Street, demonstrating the intention to strengthen economic ties with the Gulf. Trump presented tangible results, reinforcing his image as a dealmaker and promising long-term prosperity for the United States. He secured jobs and prosperity by renegotiating tariffs and ensuring that capital would first benefit the U.S. economy. But why was Israel excluded from this tour? The regional situation offers some explanation: the war in Gaza continues, the humanitarian crisis worsens, and talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel are stalled. A visit to Jerusalem could have been seen as provocative and might have endangered the important economic agreements. Additionally, Trump’s proposal to transform Gaza into a "Riviera of the Middle East" was not well received by Arab-Muslim countries. The focus remained on regional stability and economic cooperation, avoiding symbolic issues. Trump’s approach is cautious and pragmatic, consistent with his "America First" policy. This decision does not reflect a punishment of Netanyahu, despite tensions between the two leaders, but signals a shift in the relationship between Washington and Jerusalem. Whereas Israel was a priority in Trump’s first term, the approach is now more nuanced and pragmatic. Israel is costly for the U.S., and Trump seeks financial support for a heavily indebted country. There are many strategic differences with Israel on issues such as Gaza, Iran’s nuclear program, and normalization with Riyadh. However, Trump still faces a firm Netanyahu, whose hardline stance complicates American goals. Supporting Israel without reservation risks losing economic opportunities with the Gulf monarchies. By focusing on these countries, Trump signals that American diplomacy now prioritizes economic interests and new regional balances, even if it means temporarily distancing from a historic ally. This message also reaches Israeli voters and the international community: automatic loyalties are replaced by realpolitik, where partnerships are judged by their concrete benefits. This change breaks with decades of American diplomacy, where Israel was always central during presidential visits. The White House now favors tangible outcomes and alliances that benefit the U.S. economy and the president’s international standing. The vice president also strengthens his position for the upcoming election. The Republican Party welcomes this. In summary, Israel’s absence from the Middle East tour can be explained by the priority given to economic matters, caution in a volatile context, and a desire to redefine strategic balances in favor of the U.S. This decision may redraw alliances in the Middle East, marking an era where American diplomacy is guided by economic returns and regional stability, even if it disrupts traditions and surprises allies. Israel remains an essential partner but cannot match the scale of opportunities offered by the Gulf. For Trump, the priority is clear: "America First," including in redefining Middle Eastern alliances. If this strategy succeeds economically, it could have lasting effects on regional dynamics and Israel’s role in American diplomacy. Israeli society must acknowledge this new reality, and opposition parties might use this moment to counter extremists dominating politics. Israel’s future depends on regional peace, which also requires the Palestinian people’s right to live in peace. This will be the next challenge. The Gulf monarchies invest to support the U.S. but also become more demanding on this issue. The Middle East, birthplace of religions and much of human civilization, long a stage for ideological rivalries, is becoming the ground for a new American realpolitik. Donald Trump, true to his style, favors deals and results, even if it means breaking conventions. Israel’s exclusion is not an oversight but a sign of strategic repositioning that could reshape the future of the region and the world.

10: Trump, Morocco, and the End of the Polisario Myth 9199

Aziz Daouda, 8 mon.
In just a few short weeks, the Western Sahara issue has seen a series of rare and intense developments, marking a genuine acceleration in a case long frozen by diplomatic deadlock, strategic inertia, and hidden agendas. The Trump administration, leading an international current weary of this outdated conflict, has clearly demonstrated its desire to enter a new era, breaking away from decades of inaction fueled by the Cold War and its lingering ideological effects. For Washington, there is no longer any tolerance for the destabilization games of Algeria’s military regime, which has lost its bearings and uses this conflict to mask its own internal political, economic, and social failures. By doing so, it hinders regional development ambitions and healthy, complementary relations with a Moroccan neighbor it both envies for its successes and resents for its strong alliances with the West. Donald Trump's election reshuffled the deck. Gone are the cautious postures and fragile balancing acts between the parties. The time has come for action, transparent alliances, and the pursuit of concrete solutions. In this context, the Trump administration’s support for Morocco’s autonomy proposal is unequivocal. The Moroccan initiative is now described by the White House as the only "just and lasting" basis for resolving the conflict. During a highly symbolic meeting between Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita and Senator Marco Rubio, the latter reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to a solution based solely on Morocco’s offer. The signals are clear: for Washington, playtime is over. Morocco is strong and reliable. It is within its rights. It is the best friend and partner in the region. It was also the first country to recognize the United States and to protect its fleet during the country’s early, difficult years. This reaffirmed American realignment comes with bold proposals. Several influential members of Congress are now considering officially designating the Polisario Front as a terrorist organization. They have a solid basis for their case, including: attacks on civilians in Smara and near El Mahbes, the unilateral breach of the 1991 ceasefire, and alleged ties with hostile powers like Iran and Russia—not to mention the confirmed presence of Polisario fighters in Syria, who are still being held there. On April 11, it should be noted, Republican Representative Joe Wilson announced his intention to introduce a bill to this effect. According to him, the Polisario Front serves as a gateway for what he calls the “Axis of Aggression” in Africa, linking the separatist group to Iranian and Russian geopolitical ambitions on the continent, posing a threat to U.S. security. He now holds in his hands a well-documented Hudson Institute report that points to close ties between the Polisario and Hezbollah, and even the PKK. The Polisario is said to be involved in arms trafficking with terrorist groups in the Sahel, the embezzlement of humanitarian aid, and more. It would be a mistake to think this logic is limited to Americans. Just last week, for example, former UK Defence Secretary Liam Fox also described the Polisario as a terrorist organization. The idea is gaining serious ground. This dynamic puts Algeria face to face with its responsibilities: the Polisario is hosted, supported, and funded on its soil. Labeling the Polisario a terrorist group would effectively remove it from the equation. Its diplomatic marginalization would further isolate Algiers, now clearly seen as a direct party to the conflict, and no longer the neutral third actor it claims to be. The mask has definitively fallen. Another country facing turbulence: South Africa. A traditional supporter of the Polisario, Pretoria is beginning to feel the impact of this strategic shift. The local press is raising questions, and voices within the ANC are calling for a reassessment of the country’s foreign policy. Several NGOs are known to be raising funds for the Polisario, but think tanks such as the Hudson Institute argue that a terrorist designation would force them to stop these operations under threat of international sanctions. The consequences could be severe for South African institutions. Already under the scrutiny of the FATF (Financial Action Task Force), the country cannot afford to be suspected of complicity with a designated terrorist entity. Banks in particular fear tighter controls and may pressure the government to change course. Tensions between Washington and Pretoria, already strained since Trump took office, risk further deterioration. The U.S. administration makes no secret of its distrust of the South African government. A possible designation of the Polisario as a terrorist group could become a breaking point in an already fragile relationship, potentially leading to sanctions, economic pressure, and heightened diplomatic scrutiny. The Western Sahara dossier is entering a new phase. The status quo no longer holds against the backdrop of international realignments, and stalling tactics are losing effectiveness. The world no longer tolerates frozen conflicts, and global powers are looking for a stable, trustworthy Africa that is open to cooperation. In this evolving dynamic, Morocco appears to have won the battle of clarity. The question now is whether its adversaries will be able to read the new balance of power. This is likely what explains and fuels the optimism of Morocco’s UN representative, Omar Hilale. In barely veiled terms, he hinted that the issue might be declared resolved to coincide with the celebrations of the 50th anniversary of the Green March, on November 6…