The West Misunderstands Putin
Putin can't go to war with NATO (the West is right on that point), but he's not being given an option. Western forces are ramping up the support for Ukraine as progress stalls and Russian forces see significant gains. Putin's perspective is that he is already at war with NATO because he's fighting Western arms from Western funds. The West sees it as a question of Ukrainian sovereignty. Ukraine is independent, it should be able to defend itself, even against the threat of a nuclear weapon. Western leaders have blocked all communication channels for a ceasefire under the naive assumption that Ukraine can win back all the territory and everything will be merry.
Putin now is threatening to launch a nuclear bomb in Ukraine. Putin thinks he's at war with NATO, a war he can only win with nuclear weapons. The Russian army vs NATO with sanctions would smoke Russia's forces 99 out of 100 days unless there are nuclear weapons. Nukes are the only defense Russia has against a major conflict with NATO.
Remember, Putin went into the war telling his people that Ukraine was becoming too friendly to the West and needed to be stopped from joining NATO. He can't go back to his people and say we lost, Ukraine got all their territory back, and they're going to join NATO. It's a Western fantasy. He will drop a nuke first.
He is pleading to the West to take his warnings seriously, but Western leaders think he's bluffing. He is being given no choice but to demonstrate that Russia is a force that needs to be respected. His only way to do that is to drop a nuke.
The Russian people don't take kindly to being embarassed on an international stage. Neither did the Germans before WW2. It's why Russians care so much about winning at the Olympics, or having the best chess players.
The Russian mentality is suicidal. They still love Stalin after he killed 20 million of his own people because Stalin made the Russian people seem formidable. The Russians will die before they look like cowards. That's why Putin's only choice is to win territory in Ukraine or drop a nuke.
I think WW3 is about to begin. According to Russian newspapers, Putin does too.
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The West Misunderstands Putin
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The future of AI is Small and then Smaller.
We need smaller models, but don't expect big tech to develop them.
Current state-of the-art architectures are very inefficient, the cost of training them is getting out of hand, more and more unaffordable for most people and institutions. This effectively is creating a 3 tiers society in AI:
1- Those who can afford model development and training (Big tech mostly). And make *foundation models* for everybody else
2- Those who can only afford the fine tuning of the *foundation models*
3- Those who can only use the fine tuned models through APIs.
This is if far from an ideal situation for innovation and development because it effectively creates one producer tier (1) and 2 consumer tiers (2 and 3). It concentrates most of the research and development into tier 1, leaves a little for tier 2 and almost completely eliminates tier 3 from R&D in AI. Tier 3 is most of the countries and most of the people.
This also explains why most of the AI startups we see all over the place are at best tier 2, this means that their *Intellectual Property* is low. The barrier to entry for competition is very low, as someone else can easily replicate their product. The situation for tier 3 AI startups is even worst.
This is all due to two things:
1- It took almost 20 years for governments and people to realize that AI is coming. In fact they only did it after the fact. The prices for computer hardware (GPUs) where already through the roof and real talent already very rare. Most people still think they need *Data scientists*, in fact they need: AI Researchers, DevOps Engineers, Software Engineers, Machine Learning Engineers, Cloud Infrastructure Engineers, ... The list of specialties is long. The ecosystem is now complex and most countries do not have the right curriculums in place at their universities.
2- The current state-of-the-art models are **huge and extremely inefficient**, they require a lot of compute ressources and electricity.
Point number 2 is the most important one. Because if we solve 2, the need for cloud, DevOps, etc... decreases significantly. Meaning we not only solve the problem of training and development cost, we also solve part of the talent acquisition problem. Therefore, it should be the absolute priority: __we need smaller, more efficient models__.
But why are current models so inefficient. The answer is simple, the first solution that works is usually not efficient, it just works. We have seen the same things with steam machine and computers. Current transformer based models, for example need several layers of huge matrices that span the whole dictionary. That's a very naive approach, but it works. In a way we still have not surpassed the Deep Learning trope of 15 years ago: Just add more layers.
Research in AI should not focus on large language models, it should be focusing on small language models that have results on par with the large ones. That is the only way to keep research and development in AI alive and thriving and open to most. The alternative is to keep using these huge models than only extremely wealthy organisation can make, leading to a concentration of knowledge and to too many tier 2 and tier 3 startups that will lead us to a disastrous pop of the AI investment bubble.
However, don't count on Big Tech to develop and popularize these efficient models. They are unlikely to as having a monopoly on AI development is on their advantage as long as they can afford it.
Universities, that's your job.
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The future of AI is Small and then Smaller.
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Impending Nuclear Apocalypse
An atomic blast releases three types of radiation: beta particles, neutron radiation, and gamma rays. After a few days the only radiation are neutron radiation and gamma rays from radioactive fallout. It's believed most people outside cities would survive the initial blasts. There will also be a nuclear winter, estimates show it could last from days to a decade, making it extremely difficult to grow food. Everything will be poisoned from fallout. I already have the basics: air filters, water filters, geiger counters, gold, guns, 6 months worth of canned foods, etc.
Many would survive up to this point, but come out realizing they have no source of clean water, food, and are already on the brink of death. Most would later die from radiation poisoning, cancer, starvation, or conflict over resources. It's believed that after two years, almost everybody would die.
Given the current war in Ukraine and it seemingly not having a resolution, nuclear war is more concerning every year. It is irresponsible to consider something potentially so devastating as irrelevant to our everyday concerns. The fact is that preparing a little can significantly increase your odds of survival and something everyone should do. As much as we don't like to think about it, it could actually happen.
**WHERE ARE THE TARGETS?**
In the case of a full-blown nuclear exchange, if you live in Europe, The Middle East, North America, Russia, China, Korea, or any countries in proximity, you are at high risk of being a direct nuclear target. The goal of a nuclear exchange isn't to kill as many people as possible in the blasts, but to make the aftermath as hellish as possible for the survivors. Primary targets will be military bases, major cities, and intermediary infrastructure. The aftermath will be absolute anarchy, as people are killed over shoes and canned beans.
**WHO'S PREPARED?**
There isn't a comprehensive list. Switzerland has fallout shelters to house her entire population.
**ARMOR YOURSELF**
Conflict over resources will be a major tension in a post-apocalyptic world. You want to protect yourself, not only from the potential of violence, but also radiation exposure. You want to be bulletproof. You want to be radiation resistant. Hydrogenated Boron Nitride Nanotubes (H-BNNTs) are 100x stronger than steel with best-in-class protection against neutron radiation. And unlike other ultra-high-strength materials, H-BNNTs are astonishingly easy to manufacture in bulk and spin into sheets. They're typically used to reinforce other materials and can be purchased in a powdered form for that purpose.
What I'm going to do is buy a full body cooling garment as an underlayer and build an exolayer of radiation-resistant plates. It sounds kind of silly, but in a radioactive world you need to protect cover yourself or you will probably get sick and die. This can only be done with impractically heavy layers or by using cutting-edge materials. H-BNNTs are also hydrophobic so radioactive matter won't stick to you. They also self-heal. Another reason this is an absolute must: unless sufficiently protected, nuclear radiation can make you impotent.
People will provoke you if you have things. Being resistant to small bullets with armored plates is invaluable. I'll also build a helmet I can screw air filters into. Consider the predicted mortality causes: radiation poisoning, cancer, starvation, or conflict over resources. An armored suit of such specification would effectively protect against radiation poisoning, cancer, and conflict over resources. It's remarkably valuable and there is no substitute.
How to make BNNT according to Jun Hee Kim et al.: "Ball milling is a promising technique to synthesize BNNT at industrial scale with low cost. In principle, direct reaction between boron and nitrogen in ambient conditions can be stimulated by introducing defective or amorphous structure in boron starting powders. This transformation is easily done by applying sufficient amount of mechanical energy that is controlled by several parameters such as milling time, and intensity (round per minutes). Therefore, the quantity of BNNT can be immensely produced in a typical run. This process is dependent on the milling time that could be extended to hundreds of hours, and the subsequent annealing of treated boron powder has an essential role in the formation of BNNT."
**BE SCARY AF**
Suppose your starving and have no weapons. You see someone walking and eating an apple from the bushes. If they don't look armed, you might want to jump them and steal their food. If they're wearing a full bullet-resistant armor suit with a semiautomatic rifle strapped to their back, you might think twice.
**SOURCES OF FOOD**
What are the best sources of food during the nuclear winter? Your neighbors and pets, and not in the way you'd like to think. You might not be able to grow anything outside. Sourcing energy for a greenhouse will be exceptionally difficult. People will also try to kill you if you do have food. You can mill flour out of cambium, the inner layer of tree bark, to make bark bread. You can also grow mushrooms and nutritional yeast. Dinner a la oyster mushrooms, nutritional yeast, bark bread, and bat meat. Not bad given the circumstances. Other than that, you're pretty much hopeless. There is no easy answer to the problem of finding food. Clean water can be sourced from a well or collected from the condensate of boiling water.
**WHERE SHOULD YOU HIDE?**
When you learn that nuclear war has been initiated, you should consider the amount of time you have, and go to your basement or another underground dwelling before the blast. It's important to stay underground for a 2-3 weeks, then you can come up and assess the circumstances. Make sure you have a geiger counter to assess your exposure to radiation.
**WHO'S IN CHARGE??**
The government would collapse. Some places would remain untouched by direct nuclear bombing. Countries in Africa, South America, Australia, South East Asia, Oceania, and of course Antarctica, may remain safe. Getting there would be a top priority. Aid packages may also arrive, but probably not. Every country would be suffering it's own ecological crisis as a result of radioactive material carried by weather.
There is also the possibility of haven cities that were not destroyed by blasts through shear luck. READ THE ROAD. Gangs will block the roads to take your things, but if you can't survive by yourself, it would be wise to try to find a haven city.
**NUCLEAR FANTASY**
Some places could be hit REALLY hard. In America, England, Poland, Russia, Ukraine, and other major targets, it would be a mistake to assume that society will ever be remotely similar. Some people hold out hope for gov aid. It won't be coming. The government will collapse. As Einstein said, WW4 will be fought with sticks and stones
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Impending Nuclear Apocalypse
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El Salvador: The most important country you barely hear about
El Salvador has a significant diaspora, so much that money coming from the US is a major source of income. **Not so long ago you would have been pressed to find a Salvadorian who wanted to go back to El Salvador. Now things seems to be changing.**
El Salavador, used to have one of the highest homicide rates in the Americas, now it looks relatively safe. El Salvador showed an interesting strategy. First boost the economy before handling the crime situation. Crime is indeed a part of GDP, albeit a hard one to quantify. Since it is an economic activity, it participates in exchanges and provides people with activities that supports them and their families. Drastically reducing crime has the effect of creating *'unemployed criminals'* people with a skillset that's hard to sell in a traditional economy.
El Salvador probably did take a hit to its GDP, but that was compensated by the increase in economic activity and investments.
Bitcoin was a big part of that.
Bitcoin got a lot of bad press as a technology only used by criminals, or a crazy investment for crazy speculators. These takes failed to understand the technology and it's potential. What Bitcoin offers is a decentralized, fast and secure payment system for free. El Salvador doesn't have to maintain it, regulate it, or even monitor it. All very costly activities that a small country can do without. Bitcoin is a mathematically secure way of payment.
In a country where road infrastructures are challenging, Bitcoin offers people in remote areas the possibility to pay their bills without travelling for hours. In a country that was unsafe, Bitcoin offered people the possibility to go out without the fear of being robbed.
It also attracted a kind of investors that would go nowhere else. And even if these investment can appear small, for a country like El Salvador it's a big change.
The Salvadorian experiment in a freer economy, crypto-friendly and smaller government, in a time of increasing inflation, has a lot of people watching. In a continent that leaned left for so long, this is a big change.
My opinion is that there would be no Javier Millier hadn't there been a Nayib Bukele before. Argentina has been a bastion of the left for decades. If the libertarian policies of Millier succeed in bettering the lives of Argentinians, we might be on the brink of a major cultural shift in the Americas and then the world.
Argentina is a far bigger country than El Salvador, with far more people watching.
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El Salvador: The most important country you barely hear about
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