Trump, like a Roman emperor... 11209
During his campaign, candidate Donald Trump was hosted by Joe ROGAN in his famous Podcast, which is now more powerful than al large part of the mainstream media combined. That's where Trump confided the most, and that's where you have to go to understand his projected policies, both internally and externally.
On this occasion, Trump said, in essence, “I'll be a dictator for a day, and the rest of the time, I'll be a Democrat”. By which he meant that, once installed in the 75.8 m2 office facing the White House Rose Garden, he would sign a lot of “Presidential Orders”. He's no stranger to this. He signed 53 in 10 months only during his first term.
Presidential Orders are the decrees that a U.S. President can issue without reference to Congress. Although the procedure is not enshrined in the Constitution, it has always been used. As far back as 1793, George Washington used it to impose neutrality of the country in the conflict between France and England. It was under Franklin in 1862 that the procedure seems to have become a permanent fixture. Franklin D. Roosevelt is the president who holds the record, signing 3,700 of them. This didn't bother Americans too much, who trusted their president to get them out of the crisis and keep the country out of bankruptcy. More recently, George W. Bush signed 291 Presidential Orders. Congress remains in control of the situation, however, when it comes to funding and therefore the budget. For Trump, this won't be a problem. His loyalists have a majority in both chambers and are unlikely to encounter any difficulties.
On January 20, he will show his devotion to the USA and put his commitments into practice, if only in part, by signing a multitude of documents of all kinds. Some of these will reach people's wallets the very next day. Like a true team captain, he will offer the people gathered around him ink pens from prestigious brand. Last time, there were as many pens as signed sheets.
Trump has made it clear that he intends to put an end to wars and does not intend to wage or allow new ones. He also said he wanted to cut certain government bills, including those for the army. He was well aware that the great empires had all collapsed when their military spending had exceeded all comprehension. For him, the country spends too much on war and on the army. Will he really weigh in against the might of the Pentagon and its hidden motives. He's going to sack it boss.
Buoyed by the swell in his favor in the recent elections, he intends to use this major advantage to rapidly influence the course of events. In his economic approach, his first priority will be to reduce the trade deficit. The Americans have a trade deficit with all the world's major economies: US$275 billion with China, US$152 billion with Mexico, US$72 billion with Japan and so on. A huge and rather unhealthy deficit. In alcohols and spirit beveradges alone, the deficit is 15 billion.
He also wants to regain control of oil and gas production, and will heavily promote the exploitation of bituminous shist. He couldn't care less about the Paris agreements.
He intends to reinvigorate certain industries, including the automobile industry, once the flagship of the American economy. To do this, he will need labor, which is increasingly scarce in the USA. While apparently opposed to immigration, he does have a solution. In short, he doesn't want any more stowaways, random intruders or those from the famous lottery. He advocates immigration based on skills and the country's needs.
The president is convinced that this is the way the make this famous 'America first' a reality.
Trump no longer wants to meddle in the affairs of other countries, but will nevertheless indirectly impact their economic policies through the introduction of rather high taxes on imports. And he's rather selective. His first target is China. He plans to apply chineese a rate of 60%. Mexico, on the other hand, will bear the brunt. A rate of 200% would be applied to the electric cars it exports to the USA. The Latin American neighbor has encouraged the establishment of Chinese companies manufacturing electric cars on its soil. These cars are then introduced into the USA under the NAFTA agreements signed in 1994 with Canada and Mexico. For the rest of the world, according to the customer, the rates would be from 10 to 20%.
Another provision is also likely to disrupt the course of events: the 100% customs tax he wants to impose on imports from countries that do not use the US dollar in their international transactions. The BRIX is directly targeted.
If Trump says he doesn't want a new war, now he's likely to declare a good one on a lot of countries at the same time. An all-out war. The very serious Centre d'Etudes Prospectives d'Informations Internationales -CEPII- estimates, for example, that these measures could lead to a fall in world GDP of around 0.5%. This is not insignificant given the rates achieved in almost all countries, barring exceptional cases. All countries exporting to the USA would so be affected.
On the face of it, these measures will make it possible to relocate certain productive sectors to the USA, but with which workers, while at the same time he intends to expel almost 13 million people whom he and his followers consider to be too many on American soil. However, deportation is no easy task, and is likely to be very costly for the state whose money he claims to be defending. The operation would cost the American taxpayer some US$315 billion. In fact, what he would save or take with one hand, he may lose it with the other.
It also remains to be seen how the American housewife will react. While the vast majority of them have punished the Democrats for inflation, all the measures mentioned above, and others still proposed, are likely to increase the cost of living. The average American who has become accustomed to paying USD15 for a shirt made in China is likely to have to pay more than USD20 for the same article...and that's not why he voted for Trump.
In any case, the two months that separate us from the nomination of the 47th President of the USA are not going to be easy for the whole world. Economists and politicians are hard at work, calculators in hand. Both of them. There's no doubt that some of them are already preparing their response to the planned measures. The USA is not what it was fifteen or twenty years ago. It has lost much of its superb economic hegemony, and Trump may well learn this the hard way, or not. He'll still sign a bunch of Presidential Orders with his own hand on January 20, 2025, savoring his great triumph like a Roman emperor...
