Moroccan Sahara, Maghreb and Sahel: Russia's Subtle Repositioning Between Interests, Realpolitik, and New Equilibria... 417
The recent signals sent by Russia on the Moroccan Sahara dossier are neither coincidental nor mere diplomatic wavering. On the contrary, they reflect a pragmatic repositioning, revealing the profound geostrategic recompositions sweeping through the Maghreb and the Sahel, in an international context marked by the war in Ukraine, the relative weakening of the West in Africa, and the emergence of new alliance logics.
While Moroccans are occupied with the Africa Cup of Nations, which they aim to deliver as an exceptional edition for their continent, highly interesting developments are unfolding for the region's future. Moscow's refusal to authorize the participation of the Polisario, in its self-proclaimed form of the "RASD," at the latest Russia-Africa meeting constitutes a strong political act, even if it was not formalized by a thunderous official declaration. In the grammar of Russian diplomacy, this type of decision carries a message. By excluding an entity not recognized by the UN and wholly dependent on Algeria, Russia confirms its commitment to the UN framework and its refusal to legitimize fragile or instrumentalized state constructs. The Polisario did not participate in the latest ministerial meeting of the Russia-Africa Forum in Cairo on December 19-20, 2025. Moscow explicitly excluded the Polisario Front and its self-proclaimed "SADR," despite pressures from Algeria and South Africa, reserving the event for UN-recognized sovereign states.
This decision aligns with Russia's consistent line, having already barred the Polisario from previous summits in Sochi and Saint Petersburg. This choice is all the more significant as it comes in a context where Moscow seeks to appear as a "responsible" actor in the eyes of African countries, concerned with stability and sovereignty.
Russia's abstention at the Security Council during the latest vote on the Moroccan Sahara follows the same logic. Moscow does not explicitly support the Moroccan position but no longer opposes head-on the dossier's evolution toward a realistic political solution. This stance reflects an active neutrality, allowing Russia to preserve its historic and lucrative relations with Algeria while avoiding antagonizing a Moroccan partner that has become central in several African and Mediterranean dossiers. In Russian logic, it is not about choosing a camp but maximizing room for maneuver.
Contrary to an ideological reading inherited from the Cold War, the Russo-Moroccan relationship today rests on tangible and growing economic interests, particularly in agriculture and food security with imports of cereals and exports of Moroccan agricultural products, fertilizers and phosphates, energy, as well as logistics and access to African markets. For Moscow, Morocco emerges as a credible African hub, a stable state with extensive economic and diplomatic networks in West Africa and the Sahel. In a context where Russia seeks to offset its Western isolation, Rabat offers a pragmatic entry point to the Atlantic Africa, far from the Sahelian chaos zones.
Algeria remains a historic strategic ally of Russia, particularly in the military domain, with Algiers devoting several billion dollars annually to purchasing Russian armaments, making it one of the main clients of the Russian defense industry. But this relationship is now imbalanced: it remains largely one-dimensional, centered on armaments, offers Moscow no economic or logistical relays comparable to those of Morocco in sub-Saharan Africa, and is politically rigidified by a frozen ideological reading of the Saharan dossier. Moreover, Algeria has failed to capitalize diplomatically on its Russian alignment to become a credible and solid structuring actor in the Sahel, contrary to its ambitions.
In the current Sahelian context, state collapse, coups d'état, terrorism, presence of mercenaries, and international rivalries, Russia now prioritizes actors capable of providing islands of stability. Morocco, through its pragmatic African policy, investments, religious and security diplomacy, appears as a balancing factor, whereas Algeria is perceived as a blocking actor on certain regional dossiers. Sahel countries no longer hesitate to openly say that Algeria is the cause of their misfortune...
In this reading, the Western Sahara issue is no longer an ideological stake but a parameter of regional stability; Moscow seems to have understood that perpetuating the conflict status quo serves instability more than its own strategic interests in Africa.
Contrary to a widespread idea, Russia no longer reasons in terms of "fraternal" alliances inherited from the past but in cost-benefit terms, the era of automatic support for so-called "revolutionary" movements being over. Russia is a signatory to agreements with Morocco that include the Sahara, particularly in fisheries. The Saharan dossier perfectly illustrates this shift: no recognition of the Polisario, no frontal opposition to Morocco, maintenance of ties with Algeria without granting it a diplomatic blank check. On the contrary, it confines it to a rather small-player dimension, not having helped it join the BRICS at all, quite the opposite. For the Algerian president, membership was a done deal. He received a real slap in the face, and in South Africa no less. The BRICS refused his country's accession.
Russia's recent positions on Western Sahara do not constitute a spectacular rupture but a silent turning point, with steady steps, revealing a new Maghrebi-Sahelian balance. In this multi-level game, Morocco consolidates its status as a central and reliable African actor, while Algeria remains for Russia an important military partner but politically constrained.
Supported by a weakened country and a regime on its deathbed, the Polisario is sinking into progressive diplomatic marginalization. It is living its last moments.
True to its tradition as a realist power, Russia adjusts its positions not based on slogans but on the real dynamics of the ground, where stability, regional integration, enduring and solid economic interests, and diplomatic credibility now outweigh past ideological loyalties. It is now necessary to accept what Russia has become, it is no longer the Soviet Union. Algiers has the intellectual capacity to do so.