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Mauritania Facing Security, Diplomatic, and Geopolitical Recomposition Challenges in the Sahel.. 366

Aziz Daouda, 2 d.
After four years of intervention, the Russian paramilitary group Wagner officially announced its withdrawal from Mali in June 2025. It had been active in the region since 2021. This departure occurs in a context marked by a resurgence of jihadist attacks weakening Malian and regional stability. Wagner’s departure does not signify a Russian disengagement, as its missions are being taken over by a new paramilitary organization, the Africa Corps, directly controlled by the Russian Ministry of Defense. This group, born after the failed coup attempt by former Wagner leaders in 2023, continues Russia’s strategy of influence in Africa, notably in what is declared to be the training of Malian forces to face the rising terrorist threats. This transition illustrates the complexity of the security context in the Sahel, where Wagner’s relative failure to stabilize Mali and contain Tuareg and jihadist armed groups forces Moscow to readjust its methods while maintaining its strategic influence. This new situation raises serious questions about the real capacity to contain terrorism in the region, especially at Mali’s border with Mauritania. Meanwhile, the Polisario Front, a separatist movement, is increasingly associated with terrorist activities. In Spain, a militant affiliated with the Polisario was arrested for preparing terrorist acts against Morocco, with evidence of incitement to jihadism and acquisition of explosive materials. This radicalization fits into a dynamic where the Polisario cooperates more closely with Islamist groups, notably benefiting from the support of Iran and its proxies including Hezbollah. Well-documented longstanding links exist between the Polisario and terrorist groups in the Sahel, such as the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, whose founders were former Polisario fighters. This collusion manifests through logistical support, arms transfers, and increased militarization, including the use of suicide drones supplied by Iran. These facts reinforce the perception of the Polisario not only as a separatist actor but also as a vector of instability and terrorism in the region. At the same time, Morocco has recorded numerous diplomatic breakthroughs and growing international pressure to formalize Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara provinces. In 2024, Morocco achieved several major victories in the international recognition of its sovereignty over its southern provinces. More than 116 countries, including powers like France, now support the Moroccan autonomy plan as the only viable solution to the conflict. This position was recently shared by the United Kingdom following the United States. Influential African countries such as Côte d'Ivoire and, more recently, Ghana have done the same. The fresh stance of Zuma’s party in South Africa further confirms this evolution. Morocco’s diplomatic progress relies on skilled international relations management and active engagement in regional security, notably in the Sahel. The Kingdom’s tact is evident as it avoids embarrassing its southern neighbor Mauritania, which has long recognized the so-called RASD puppet entity. It is also important to recall the U.S. intention to classify the Polisario Front as a terrorist organization, a measure supported by analyses documenting its links with Hezbollah, the PKK, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Cuba, Venezuela, and other states unfriendly to the U.S. This classification aims to reveal the true nature of the Polisario. In this context, Mauritania finds itself in turmoil. Things have moved too fast. The comfort it once enjoyed is gone. The conjunction of these developments forces the country’s authorities to rethink their political positioning. Faced with the recurring fragility caused by the Polisario, which hinders its development and threatens its stability, and observing Algeria’s inability to move beyond Boumediene’s legacy to ensure effective security, Mauritania is inevitably pushed toward rapprochement with Morocco. Morocco is perceived as the only actor capable of guaranteeing lasting security in the region, especially against rising terrorist threats and current geopolitical challenges. Some Mauritanian publications already address this question very directly. This shows that Mauritanian decision-makers are indeed embracing this paradigm shift. Recent movements by the Mauritanian army align with this trend, especially as some Polisario cadres no longer hesitate to threaten Mauritania, which they label as a traitor. This tension further complicates Mauritania’s capacity to secure its borders, a young country whose resources remain very limited given the vastness of its borders, notably with Mali and Algeria. In this environment, Algeria, a blind and staunch supporter of the Polisario, today appears more trapped in rhetoric without real capacity for action, which weakens its regional position. Mauritania seems to have understood this for some time, though perhaps not openly. Conversely, Morocco, strengthened by its diplomatic successes and proven commitment to counterterrorism, appears as an indispensable partner for Mauritania in its quest for stability and prosperity. It would therefore not be surprising to see Mauritania in the very near future withdraw its recognition of the so-called RASD puppet entity or at least move away from what it has so far called a positive neutrality. In fact, Mauritania has already distanced itself somewhat from the separatists, which does not please Algeria, which is losing influence. The withdrawal of Wagner from Mali, the radicalization of the Polisario which seems overwhelmed, Morocco’s diplomatic successes, and the likely imminent designation of the Polisario as a terrorist organization by the U.S. clearly redraw the geopolitical map of the Sahel and the Maghreb. Mauritania is probably preparing for this and even taking the lead. In this shifting context, it is pushed toward a natural strategic realignment with Morocco, the only actor capable of offering a credible security alternative against terrorist threats and development challenges. This repositioning marks a major step in the reshaping of regional alliances, with profound implications for the future stability of the Sahel and the reconfiguration of North Africa.

His Majesty King Mohammed VI: Heir to a Tradition, Architect of Sovereign Modernity 368

Aziz Daouda, 2 d.
Long before the major transformations of the 1920s, Morocco experienced significant attempts at modernization under the reign of Hassan I (1873-1894). A visionary Sultan, Hassan I undertook reforms of the administration, strengthened the army, and developed infrastructure, notably roads and communications. His efforts encountered a conservative internal context, marked by resistance from the fouqahas (Islamic scholars) and elites attached to traditional structures. He also faced increasing pressure from European powers seeking to establish themselves in Morocco. These dual obstacles limited the scope of the reforms but nevertheless laid the foundations for gradual modernization. Before him, Sidi Mohammed ben Abdallah, an enlightened 18th-century Sultan, had already played a major role in opening Morocco to the world. He notably founded and developed the port of Essaouira (then Mogador) in 1765, conceived as a strategic commercial hub to control foreign trade. Thanks to its geographic position and infrastructure, Essaouira quickly became an essential crossroads for exchanges between Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, and the Mediterranean, thereby strengthening the kingdom’s economic and diplomatic ties. Other sovereigns continued this dynamic. Moulay Abdelaziz (1894-1908) pursued certain military and administrative reforms despite increasing instability. Under the French protectorate, Moulay Youssef (1912-1927) had to navigate colonial domination while trying to preserve some Moroccan sovereignty. Ascending the throne in 1927 at only 19 years old, Mohammed V became a symbol of Moroccan resistance against the French protectorate. Rejecting colonial domination, he supported the nationalist movement, notably during his historic speech in Tangier in 1947, where he called for Moroccan unity and independence. Exiled from 1953 to 1955, his triumphant return marked the beginning of the end of the protectorate. In 1956, he proclaimed independence and laid the foundations of a sovereign Morocco. He then engaged in building a modern state by reforming institutions, unifying the territory, developing education, and initiating economic modernization, creating the Royal Armed Forces and other security bodies while affirming national cultural identity. Son of Mohammed V, Hassan II (1961-1999) consolidated the Moroccan state by establishing a constitutional monarchy and developing essential infrastructure. He skillfully combined tradition and modernity, strengthening national sovereignty while opening the country to foreign investment and international exchanges. Under his reign, Morocco made major advances in economic, social, and cultural fields, laying the groundwork for sustainable modernization and preparing the terrain for current transformations. Hassan II is remembered for gradually recovering the territorial integrity of the Kingdom in a difficult, even hostile, internal and international context. Under Mohammed VI, Morocco is undergoing a profound transformation, comparable in scale to that of the 1920s but within a sovereign and globalized context. His reign, marked by a clear vision and firm will, combines respect for traditions with openness to modernity. The country is investing massively in transport infrastructure: roads, high-speed trains, airports, and public and private facilities throughout the territory. Integration with Western economies has strengthened, making Morocco a preferred destination for foreign direct investment, attracting billions of dollars annually. Flagship projects, especially in preparation for the 2030 World Cup, are stimulating the development of sports, tourism, and cultural infrastructure, affirming the country’s international influence. At the same time, social and economic modernization is underway, with initiatives to improve education, health, innovation, and sustainable development, positioning Morocco within a global and modern dynamic. The country has simply tripled its GDP in less than twenty years. All this reflects continuity and renewal. Morocco is, in fact, in perpetual reinvention. The parallel between the major transformations of the 1920s and the era of Mohammed VI reveals a Morocco capable of constant reinvention. While the metamorphosis of the 1920s was dictated by a colonial context, today’s transformation is the fruit of a sovereign ambition, focused on balanced, inclusive, and sustainable development. It embodies the will of a sovereign with a multilateral vision. No domain is left aside or forgotten. The great projects of yesterday and today testify to an even stronger and more determined energy for transformation, with different goals: to move from a Morocco under tutelage, dependent and powerless in the face of circumstances, to a major player on the international stage, capable of attracting and cooperating with the world and building its future with confidence. Today, Morocco fits into a long tradition of historical metamorphoses. Each era has shaped a dynamic country, attempting modernity and ambitions, sometimes successful, sometimes aborted. Yet it has remained faithful to its millennial history and cultural heritage. Today it is rising, modernizing, and asserting itself as an emerging country on which one can rely. The Kingdom of Mohammed VI is thus ready to meet the challenges of the 21st century with boldness and determination, armed this time with institutions, clear and powerful visions and strategies. The royal will thus guides the country toward genuine development benefiting all, an indispensable geostrategic position, sustainable economic breakthroughs, a reliable political system, and truly irreversible progress.