Between Deals and Geopolitics: Trump Snubs Israel and Bets on the Gulf Monarchies
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On May 13, 2025, Donald Trump began the first major international tour of his second term. Instead of stopping in Jerusalem, a symbol of the strong alliance between the United States and Israel, the president chose to visit only the three Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Israel, a neighboring and long-standing partner, was not included. This decision represents a significant change in American diplomacy and could reshape regional dynamics. It raises the question: is this simply an economic strategy or a deeper geopolitical shift?
In Riyadh, the focus was clearly on business.
Saudi Arabia announced an unprecedented investment of $600 billion in the American economy, with plans to increase it to $1 trillion over four years. The sectors involved include defense, energy, technology, infrastructure, and especially weaponry, which may cause discomfort for Israel. The U.S. military orders amount to $142 billion, reflecting the priority to secure America’s economic future through strong partnerships with the Gulf monarchies, which aim to be seen as more than just oil producers. Saudi Arabia is a major global economic player and even influenced the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Syria.
In Doha, Qatar signed historic agreements worth nearly $1.2 trillion, including the sale of Boeing planes and GE Aerospace engines to Qatar Airways. Qatar also gifted Trump a plane valued at nearly half a billion dollars.
The United Arab Emirates committed to investing $1.4 trillion over ten years in the American economy, focusing on artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure.
At each stop, investment forums brought together leading figures from Silicon Valley and Wall Street, demonstrating the intention to strengthen economic ties with the Gulf. Trump presented tangible results, reinforcing his image as a dealmaker and promising long-term prosperity for the United States.
He secured jobs and prosperity by renegotiating tariffs and ensuring that capital would first benefit the U.S. economy.
But why was Israel excluded from this tour? The regional situation offers some explanation: the war in Gaza continues, the humanitarian crisis worsens, and talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel are stalled. A visit to Jerusalem could have been seen as provocative and might have endangered the important economic agreements.
Additionally, Trump’s proposal to transform Gaza into a "Riviera of the Middle East" was not well received by Arab-Muslim countries. The focus remained on regional stability and economic cooperation, avoiding symbolic issues. Trump’s approach is cautious and pragmatic, consistent with his "America First" policy.
This decision does not reflect a punishment of Netanyahu, despite tensions between the two leaders, but signals a shift in the relationship between Washington and Jerusalem. Whereas Israel was a priority in Trump’s first term, the approach is now more nuanced and pragmatic. Israel is costly for the U.S., and Trump seeks financial support for a heavily indebted country. There are many strategic differences with Israel on issues such as Gaza, Iran’s nuclear program, and normalization with Riyadh. However, Trump still faces a firm Netanyahu, whose hardline stance complicates American goals.
Supporting Israel without reservation risks losing economic opportunities with the Gulf monarchies. By focusing on these countries, Trump signals that American diplomacy now prioritizes economic interests and new regional balances, even if it means temporarily distancing from a historic ally. This message also reaches Israeli voters and the international community: automatic loyalties are replaced by realpolitik, where partnerships are judged by their concrete benefits.
This change breaks with decades of American diplomacy, where Israel was always central during presidential visits. The White House now favors tangible outcomes and alliances that benefit the U.S. economy and the president’s international standing. The vice president also strengthens his position for the upcoming election. The Republican Party welcomes this.
In summary, Israel’s absence from the Middle East tour can be explained by the priority given to economic matters, caution in a volatile context, and a desire to redefine strategic balances in favor of the U.S. This decision may redraw alliances in the Middle East, marking an era where American diplomacy is guided by economic returns and regional stability, even if it disrupts traditions and surprises allies.
Israel remains an essential partner but cannot match the scale of opportunities offered by the Gulf. For Trump, the priority is clear: "America First," including in redefining Middle Eastern alliances. If this strategy succeeds economically, it could have lasting effects on regional dynamics and Israel’s role in American diplomacy. Israeli society must acknowledge this new reality, and opposition parties might use this moment to counter extremists dominating politics.
Israel’s future depends on regional peace, which also requires the Palestinian people’s right to live in peace. This will be the next challenge. The Gulf monarchies invest to support the U.S. but also become more demanding on this issue.
The Middle East, birthplace of religions and much of human civilization, long a stage for ideological rivalries, is becoming the ground for a new American realpolitik.
Donald Trump, true to his style, favors deals and results, even if it means breaking conventions. Israel’s exclusion is not an oversight but a sign of strategic repositioning that could reshape the future of the region and the world.
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Between Deals and Geopolitics: Trump Snubs Israel and Bets on the Gulf Monarchies
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